2013/10/17

The congress of the USA saved the country from a default at the last moment

Yesterday trading session was passing under undiverted expectation of news from the USA and as it has been predicted - the decision was made at the last moment. The day ended up with the news that the Senate of the USA almost unanimously voted for temporary increase of a ceiling of a national debt and renewal of financing of the government, a bit later the House of Representatives also approved the document.

Let's remind that earlier the Congress of the USA also voted for the law which resumes government financing till January 15, 2014 and prevents default threat at least till February 7, 2014.Now actually only the final decision of the president needs to be obtained. However, Barack Obama already before declared that he will sign the bill immediately. Thus, Washington kept the firm traditions - rescued economy from a default at the last minute time.

Obviously these awaited news gave an immediate boost to the markets before closing and we could observe some kind of a dynamic rally. Dow Jones raised on 1,36%% to level of 15373,83 points, Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 1,38%% to a level of 1721,54 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went up for 1,20%% and reached a level of 3839,43 points.

As to the currency market, then we could not see any positive support for dollar and so far dollar is continuing to weaken to other major currencies. Most probably awaited decision of the congress has been already put in the price.  Now after the solution of a question comes understanding of how much politicians did harm the American economy with all the fights. It is possible to expect correctional kickback in EUR/USD pair with next purpose based on 1,36.


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2013/10/16

Fitch placed a credit rating of the USA on revision

Each new trading day in the market within the last 2 weeks begins with hopes of investors that the budgetary problems in the USA will be resolved and congressmen will be able to agree upon insoluble questions. Congressmen during their preconference’s time manipulate on information that prospect of settlement of current situation is very positive and the necessary agreement will be reached in the nearest time.

And again we are starting new trading day with the information, that congress again is having problems. The same goes for yesterday, then it has been informed that the House of Representatives in the congress of the USA postponed vote regarding the last plan of republicans. Additionally to this, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings informed that it has placed a long-term rating of a default of the issuer of the USA in foreign and national currency "AAA" (the forecast "negative") on a revision.

As a result, American market reacted with a decrease after few positive trading sessions, Asian stock markets are also falling this morning. Dow Jones finished trading session with a decrease of 0,87%% traded on 15168,01 points, Nasdaq bargained next to the level of 3794,01 points having lost 0,56%%, S&P 500 decreased for 0,71%% reaching level of 1698,06 points.

There is also a positive moment in all this budgetary confusion - yesterday's news only convince us that chances of QE3 turning in the current year is practically impossible. According to Moody's rating agency, temporary dissolution of the government already reduced gross domestic product of the USA by 20 billion dollars. Business activity in the region of New York also falls in connection with low business trust: the Empire State index rolled down to 1,52 from 6,29, having noted a minimum level for the last five months.

Against all these events and, of course, inaction of the American government the dollar again couldn't strengthen the positions and by the evening lost everything that could win back during the day. EUR/USD currency pair has a big chance to return to the area of 1,36.

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2013/10/15

The problem in the USA will be resolved in the Hollywood style - at the last moment

Last night, the leader of democrats in the Senate, Harry Reid declared that essential progress in the solution of a budgetary question now is observed and the agreement between the parties can be reached within the next few 24 hours.

However it is still reported that to reach the agreement on two main points is still not possible, namely terms of increase of a ceiling of debt and financing of the bill of renewal of activity of the government are still discussed.

The trading session in the USA finished with Dow Jones increasing for 0.42%% reaching level of 15301,26 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,41%% traded on a level of 1710,14 points and Nasdaq reached 3815,28 having added 0,61%%. Trading session in Asia passes with a growth of the main indexes against positive expectations under the budget of the USA is observed.

The price of oil futures of Light brand this morning is falling for 0,26%% traded on a price of 102,20$ per barrel, Brent is also decreasing for 0,26%% traded on a price of 109,95$ per barrel. Gold and silver continue to loose in price, gold is traded on a price of 1268,79$ per troy ounce losing more than 0,61%%. Silver is down for 1,16%% traded on a price of 21,11$ per troy ounce.

As to the currency market, then if yesterday we observed decline in demand for US dollar, it doesn't mean that today the situation will continue to be the same. The market actually up to the end doesn't believe that the American authorities will bring the matter to a default therefore after correction of positions on Monday, currency pairs can fall into a consolidation mode up to the announcement of the agreement or approaches on October 17. Today economic releases from Europe can influence trading dynamics of the currency pairs. The Eurozone will publish the report on business moods from ZEW institute in Germany.

As for time being, EUR/USD currency pair bargains around level of 1,3559.



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2013/10/14

Possible Compromise Of The Congress Of The US, Sets Mood At The Stock Markets

On Friday, key stock indexes of Europe showed positive dynamics the second day in a row, based on the information that the Congress of the USA can agree on raising the level of the national debt of the country, having reduced, thereby, the threat of a possible default. It should be noted that negotiations of politicians will proceed, thus republicans already put forward offers on a temporary increase in the ceiling of the national debt of the USA.

In the light of the latest events, the government of the USA hasn't worked since October 1, and meanwhile, October 17 is approaching, when it will be necessary to make the decision on the increase of the ceiling of the national debt of the country.

As a result, the Dow Jones finished the trading week at 15237.11 increasing by 0.73%%, Nasdaq increased by 0.84%%, S&P 500 added 0.62%% traded on a level of 1703.29 points.

From the macroeconomic statistics published on Friday, the consumer price index of Germany for September did not change, as expected. Meanwhile, in the USA, the new reporting season started which brought optimistic vibes on the market. The reporting of the American banks JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, surpassed market expectations. JP Morgan showed a loss following the results of the last quarter, but it is mainly connected with legal costs. Except for this article, the profit on a share made $1.42, whereas an increase to $1.29 was expected. This week, many important corporate publications are expected, tomorrow will we see reports from Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and Yahoo.

Commodity and currency markets are stable, upward movement of Gold and Silver can be seen, which again left below levels of 1300.00 and 22.00 accordingly. This morning, Gold is traded on a price of 1275.87$ per troy ounce, adding 0.60%% and Silver is up by 0.73%% at 21.41$ per troy ounce.

Monday in quite poor regarding macroeconomic statistics. Consumer price index has been published in China which recorded unexpectedly high growth of the indicator in September by 3.1%%, when -2.9%% had been forecasted. In the European region, data on industrial production of 17 countries of the Eurozone will be published.


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2013/10/10

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2013/10/09

Nervousness increases on the Wall Street

On Tuesday, the American market finished trading session again with decrease. Democrats and republicans continue to insist on their positions and for all week negotiations didn't move from "a dead point". Yesterday the president Barack Obama declared that he agrees to resume negotiations only after governmental departments will be open and the national debt ceiling without any conditions is raised.

As to statistical data, then it can be noted that an index of economic optimism of IBD decreased in October to 38,4 points from 46 points. The statistics on trade balance of the USA was not announced.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 1,07%% minus on a level of  14776,53 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 1,23%% reaching level of 1655,45 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased by 2,00%% to a level of 3694,83 points.

The price for Brent this morning is decreasing for 0,11%% traded on a price of 109,27$ per barrel. Light is flat on a price of 103,30$ per barrel. Precious metals are losing in price with gold and silver traded on 1316,81$ and 22,26$ accordingly.

On the currency market, dollar is weakening in relation to major currencies. EUR/USD is traded on a 1,3527. Problems in the USA are pushing dollar to go down and against all this, even the publication of the protocol of last meeting of FOMC hardly will be able to strengthen USD positions.

Great Britain will publish today the whole series of reports on industrial production, trade balance and gross domestic product from NIESR. If indicators will continue to show stable growth of national economy, it can push currency pair to reach next resistance level, based on 1,6150.

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2013/10/08

Movements in the market are not expected while crisis in the USA will not be resolved

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with moderate decrease of the main indexes, thus the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 fell to a minimum level in a month. After losing week market didn't find in itself forces for growth - legislators remain at the former deadlock concerning the future exhaustion of means in the budget and can't find a compromise.

At the same time, we will note that the international rating agency Moody's called probability of a default of the USA according to debts "very low", and it promotes rather quiet situation in the world markets, at the same time giving support for strengthening of the dollar.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,90%% to level of 14936,24 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,85%% to a level of 1676,12 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0,98%% and reached a level of 3770,38 points.

The European indexes also showed decrease following the results of the day. Gross domestic product of the Eurozone grew by 0,3%% that coincided with expectations of analysts. However, the index of business trust of Sentix for October decreased from 6,5 to 6,1 points when analysts expected growth to 8 points. As a result, DAX decreased by 0,36%%, FTSE 100 fell by 0,37%%, and CAC 40 lost 0,19%%.

The Asian markets are showing multidirectional dynamics, however, with prevalence of small growth. Nikkei bargains in a green zone, despite decrease in quotations of the companies of exporters because of yen strengthening. Increases within 1%% indexes show indexes of China. The Australian and Korean indexes, on the contrary, are in a small minus.

Oil is stable with Brent on 108,70$ per barrel and Light on 102,88$ per barrel. Gold and silver are slightly loosing, traded on levels 1324,87$ and 22,34$ accordingly.

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2013/10/07

Volatility remains to be high on stock and currency markets

On Friday, trading session has been based on hopes that the Friday round of negotiations on the American budgetary problems will pass successfully, and new moves will be outlined in a resolution of conflict between republicans and democrats. However, constructive solution didn't appear, but Barack Obama strengthened pressure upon republicans who block acceptance of the budget. Also the president declared that is open to discussion on health care reform. Negotiations of politicians helped stock markets to finish trading week with an increase, Dow Jones added 0,50%% reaching level of 15072,58 points, Nasdaq increased for 0,88%% traded on 3807,75, S&P-500 added 0,70%% reaching level of 1672,97 points.

It is necessary to mention, that as every first Friday of the month, a package of statistical data on employment of the Ministry of Labour of the USA for previous month had to become the main information event for the American stock exchanges. However, the habitual schedule for the first time for many years was violated because of the compelled inaction of many government agencies and publication of results of labor markets is postponed for uncertain time.

On Friday, price of futures of gold fell for 7,70 dollars or 0,6%% to value of 1309,90 dollars for troy ounce – this morning is traded on 1311,76 adding in price 0,14%%. Gold fell in price owing to strengthening dollar against all competing reserve currencies and proceeding reduction of stocks of a precious metal in the largest world gold index funds. As a whole in a week gold lost 2.2%%, having suffered the first failure for the last 3 weeks.

Oil increased in price in connection with the tropical storm Karen, which has arisen in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to develop into a hurricane and to cause serious damage to the American objects of oil branch the part from which already suspended the activity and made evacuation of drilling platforms. Following the results of a week the cost of oil increased by 0.9%%. This morning Brent is traded on a price of 107,78$ per barrel and Light reached price of 102,72$ per barrel.

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2013/10/02

The markets are ignoring American budgetary problems

The yesterday's trading session confirmed confidence of participants of the market that political debate in the USA will soon end and won't render negative effect on economy. The American stock markets grew up for 0,4-1,2%%, the dollar remained under pressure, and the gold which wasn't demanded as a traditional save investment, failed for $40 to a minimum of two months.

The majority of the European trading platforms carefully bargains in a "green" zone, however this positive can instantly be replaced by sales against events in the USA. Apparently, investors still up to the end can't estimate the suspension of work of the government of the USA first time for 17 years. From now on more than 800 thousand civil servants will be sent on leaves that definitely will be reflected in the first economy of the world.

 In Washington museums and national parks yesterday were closed. Exactly at 8:00 o’clock in the morning, the police partitioned off with iron barriers all approaches to the Lincoln Memorial, on doors of the state galleries and showrooms announcements of termination of work "for the unknown period" were hung out.

The day before the budgetary office of the White house informed the staff of federal departments that all state institutions to the USA pass to an extraordinary mode. 90%% of specialists of NASA, nearly 70%% of employees of the Ministry of Energy and 50%% of civil servants of the Ministry of Defence are sent on compelled leave. On workplaces were left only the officials which work is recognized "the vital country’s safety". However, they won't get wages.

While in Washington no any forecasts are done regarding how long there will be a present budgetary crisis. Since 1976, US authorities 18 times declared partial termination of work of the federal government. Shortest of these crises proceeded only 24 hours, and the longest fell on Bill Clinton's presidency. In the winter of 1996 federal institutions in the USA didn't work for 21 days.

Main even of the day is speech of the Chairman of European Central Bank Mario Dragi with comments to the decision on an interest rate. We believe that his speech won't differ big optimism as euro gradually approaches to the upper bound of comfortable range for European Central Bank 1,2750-1,3700.

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2013/10/01

The government of the USA will partially suspend the work for the first time in 17 years

The congress of the USA didn't manage to compromise concerning financing of work of the government. Last night, on September 30, the senate for the third time for the last some days rejected the offer of republican opposition to coordinate the sanction on temporary financing of activity of the government to blocking of funds for large-scale reform of health care.

It should be noted that 54 voices against the 46, senate of the USA voted against amendments to the bill, offered by republicans. As a result, the federal budget for 2014 fiscal year, beginning on October 1, wasn't accepted.

The government of the USA for the first time for the last 17 years started partial dissolution of civil servants, having left about 800 000 people without work. It should be noted that date of the next negotiations on a question of the federal budget wasn't determined yet.

Analysts of Goldman Sachs consider that three-week holiday of federal employees can lead to delay of growth rates of economy of the USA in the fourth quarter on 0,9 percentage points to 1,6%%.

Till October 17th, the problem with a national debt ceiling in the USA will stand sharply. Some lawyers, in particular the former president Bill Clinton, claim that the constitution gives the chance to the President to lift this ceiling to avoid a default on a public debt. As Obama pathologically is afraid of responsibility and wants to become history as the indecisivest U.S. President, won't lift a national debt ceiling.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed with a minus of 0,84%% - on a level of 15129,67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 0,60%% reaching 1681,55 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased for 0,27%% to a level of 3771,48 points.

Brent is traded on a level of 106,75$ per barrel, losing 0,62%%; Light is down for 0,36%% traded on 101,53$ per barrel. Gold and silver stable on 1329,46$ and 21,75$ accordingly. EUR/USD in the morning is jumped to 1.3570.

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