2013/11/14

Indexes of the USA updated historical maxima on Yellen’s statements

Stock indexes of the USA updated historical maxima on positively apprehended reporting of Macy's and expectations of continuation of monetary easing stimulus after Janet Yellen's appointment. As a result, trading session in the USA finished with the Dow Jones adding 0,45%% and traded on a level of 15821,63 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,81%% and reached level of 1782,00 points, Nasdaq added in price 1,17%% traded on a level of 3965,57 points.

Such a strong positive effect on the market has been brought by vice-chairman of FED, Janet Yellen, who now is considered as the savior of the American market. She considers that the economy and a labor market show growth which is much weaker than the potential. Therefore while the economy won't gain strength, FED will continue the stimulating policy. Respectively, "strong restoration is a necessary condition to start folding of not conventional measures of FED, as program of repayment of assets", - it is stated in the prepared text for her press-conference which will take place tomorrow.

Reaction of Asia to Yellen's words was also very positive. MSCI Asia-Pacific grew up for 1,2%%. The Japanese market also received additional incentive in the form of a preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the III quarter. National economy grew by 1,9%% at consensus of economists of 1,7%%, but much more slowly, than in the II quarter when growth rates made 3,8%%. Nikkei 225 grew up for 2,39%%,and Shanghai Composite for +0,45%%.

Another interesting and positive development, we observed in the commodity market. Where Brent is increasing for 0,07%% this morning and reached level of 106,97$ per barrel, WTI is flat at price of 94,48$. At the same time oil still appears under pressure of statistics of stocks in the USA. American Petroleum Institute reported that during last week, commercial stocks of oil increased by 0,6 million barrels, stocks of gasoline decreased by 1,67 million barrels and distillates grew by 0,6 million barrels.

Prices for precious metals finally took a revenge after continuing fall for few days. Gold is up for 1,15 %% and silver for 1,79%%, traded on a price of 1283,04$ and 20,81$ accordingly. It should be noted that gold has ideas for purchase, namely mitigation of policy of European Central Bank, and also the statements from FED representatives that the super soft policy is still far from end. Therefore it is quite obvious some rebound on yellow metal.

In the second half of day investors and speculators will be guided by character of statistics coming from the USA. Weekly data on number of primary demands for unemployment benefits will become the considered as the most important signal.

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2013/11/13

Investors Continue To Trace Comments Of Official Representatives Of FED

On Tuesday, the American market finished the trading session with a small decrease. This week is rather quiet from the point of the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the market are digesting data published last week, taking profit and following speeches by representatives of different regulators.

Yesterday's comments from a representative of FED of Dallas, didn't deceive our expectations. He called recent data from the labor market "quite good", and emphasized that further stimulation of the economy every day bears more and more risks. At the same time, Kocherlakota devoted his speech to the weak condition of the labor market, hinting that it is still too early to speak about turning of monetary easing program. Also, attention can be paid to the speech of Fisher, even though he isn't the voting member of FOMC for the current year, he will acquire a vote in 2014. Today is the expected speech of Sandra Pianalto's, who also doesn't possess a vote in 2013.

As a result, the trading session in the US finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 0.21% on a level of 15750.67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.24% to level of 1767.69 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq was closed with zero change on a level of 3919.92 points.

The European stock platforms yesterday also appeared to be under pressure from the corporate reporting, leading indexes lost around 0.3-0,6%. Asian platforms began the new day with a decrease, the news background is formed by China where they ended the 3rd plenum of the Central Committee of communist party. Investors estimated meeting results as unclear, prospects of the economy were presented without concrete steps on achievement of goals. The Chinese Hang Seng loses this morning around 0.9%.

Commodities are continuing to fall, even this morning prices for Oil and Gold are managing to win back a bit from yesterday’s losses. Brent is traded on a price of 105.99$ per barrel adding 0.43% and WTI is up by 0.39% at 93.89$ per barrel. Gold is at price of 1274.59$ per troy ounce and wins 0.26%, and Silver oppositely loses 0.06% and is traded on a price of 20.76$ per troy ounce.

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2013/11/12

Markets are reacting only on published statistical data

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the insignificant growth of the main indexes. There were not published any macroeconomic statistics in the USA yesterday; besides, in the country Day of veterans was celebrated, and banks were closed, as well as the market on bonds. Respectively, the trading volume at yesterday's session was significantly lower than the usual.

As a result of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,14%% to level of 15783,10 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,07%% to a level of 1771,89 points, and the index Nasdaq Composite added in price just 0,01%% and reached a level of 3919,79 points.

As to the commodities market, then oil is continuing its downward trend. This morning Brent is losing 0,18%% and WTI is decreasing for 0,29%%, traded on a price of 105,99$ and 95,19$ per barrel accordingly. Precious metals are also losing in price, with gold traded on a level of 1280,45$ per troy ounce and decreasing for 0,05%%. Silver is slightly more weak at a price of 21,18$ per troy ounce and losing 0,48%%. 

In the focus of the market this week are going to be speech of the future head of FED - Janet Yellen in front of Bank Committee of the Senate, and also the reporting of large American retailers. Quarterly report of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is going to be published on 14th of November, Home Depot Inc will present results on 19th of November.

As for today, then in the second half of day will be published weekly indicator of sales of Redbook which considers sales volume of networks of large shops and hypermarkets in the USA. Moods in the American market are still quite while optimistic, all the October’s data published so far can be considered quite positive and better than expectations.


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2013/11/11

The markets stiffened on uncertainty where to move further

On Friday in stock market of the USA, we observed movement which has been almost completely opposite to the seen by us on Thursday. The majority of liquid papers have been growing, and in favourites were hi-tech companies. Dow Jones increased for 1,08%% and reached level of 15761,78 points, Nasdaq has been adding in price 1,60%% and finished trading session on a level of 3919,23 points, S&P 500 added 1,34%% and reached level of 1770,61 points.

In the beginning of the trading day, markets reacted with the movement down because of the published awaited data on a labor market which has showed significant growth in a last month. The number of new workplaces in non-agricultural sector for October jumped up at once to 204 thousand while the average forecast of the market assumed growth only on 126 thousand. Values in two last months were reconsidered towards increase in total on 60 000. Unemployment rate was recorded on a level of 7.3%% against consensus forecast at the level of 7.4%%. Even this statistics managed to push indexes down, during the day officials of FED managed to calm them by giving promising speeches.

The morning trading session in Asia is not showing the same positive dynamics, the majority of local indexes bargain in a minus, only Japanese Nikkei adds more than 1%% because has been published strong data on the account of the current operations of the country which for the first time in four months showed surplus. It should be noted small decrease in the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index against, as a whole, quite good Saturday data on industrial production - +10,3%% against the forecast of 10%% and to retails - +13,3%% against the forecast of 13,4%%. It seems that investors stiffened waiting for results of the 18th congress of Communist Party of the People's Republic of China and don't react to macroeconomic data.

Situation in the commodity markets are still quite weak. Brent and WTI are traded on a level of 105,32$ and 95,17$ per barrel accordingly, adding in price around 0.2%%. Gold is below level of 1300,00$ and is traded this morning on a price of 1286.22$, adding in price 0,13%%. Silver up for 0,33%% on a price of 21,38$ per troy ounce.

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2013/11/08

The decision of ECB to decrease interest rate to 25% became a surprise for investors

Yesterday regulators of the Eurozone and the USA were bringing markets out of an equilibrium state. Trading session in the American stock market has finished with a significant decrease, Dow Jones came to end of the session with a decrease of 0,97%% having reached level of 15593,98 points, S&P 500 lost 1,32%% traded on a level of 1747,15 points and the biggest loser became Nasdaq, which lost 1,90%% and finished trading session on a level of 3857,33 points.

Optimism in the beginning of the trading session has been very quickly removed after the macroeconomic statistical data has been published. Strong data on gross domestic product of the USA in 3rd quarter, which has made 2,8%%, when only 2%% were predicted – pushed indexes down. The number of demands for an unemployment benefit in the USA last week decreased by 9 thousand and made 336 thousand, analytics were predicting 335 thousand. These positive data changed market expectations and again gave ground for the thoughts that FRS will start displacing the program of monetary easing quicker.

At the same time the European regulator stirred up the markets, having decreased the interest rate to 0.25%% and prolonged operations of refinancing on the fixed rate till 2015. The bank of England left the rate at former low level of 0,5%%, having kept the size of volume of repayment of assets as well at former level. Pumped up data on industrial output in Germany, the indicator decreased in September by 0,9%% when analysts expected growth by 0,2%%. As a result - DAX increased by 0,49%%, FTSE 100 decreased by 0,66%%, and CAC 40 lost 0,14%%.

Very few participants of the market have been expecting such an actions from the ECB that is why reaction of euro was so dramatic. As a result, pair from level of opening at 1,3521 fell to a minimum level of 1,3294, having finished the trading session around 1,3430. This morning EUR/USD is bargaining around 1,34073.

Today’s data on unemployment in the USA and quantity of again created workplaces (NFP) can seriously affect following development in the markets. Strong data will correct terms of reduction of QE-3 from FRS, which will strengthen pressure upon the superheated stock markets. Today also starts the 3rd plenum of Communist Party of China on which reforms of the Chinese economy will be discussed. This event can have serious impact on the commodity market.

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2013/11/07

Meeting of European Central Bank and Draghi’s Conference Becomes a Key Events of the Day



Today one of the key places in an economic calendar are occupied by meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and the conference of Mario Draghi after it. It very might happen that this time the head of the Central Bank will prepare the markets for possible decrease of a rate in December.

The point is that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone at the moment is on 4-year minimum levels, and continues to fall. If falling is going to continue, it will start threatening the region with a deflation on a Japanese manner. The European Central Bank can't simply stay idle in such situation and if the regulator will take a decision for further mitigation, it is going to have a significant impact on euro. At the moment a support level is on a price of 1,3480, it’s breakdown can direct pair to the area of 1,34. The more we are going to receive positive data from the USA, the more possible it is going to be that EUR/USD will move towards level of 1,32 within next few weeks.

American stock markets showed yesterday inconsistent dynamics. Dow Jones managed to reach a new historical maximum having increased for 0,8%% and getting to the level of 15746,88 points, supported by  growth of stock quotations of oil and gas monsters as Exxon Mobil (+1,3%%) and Chevron (+2,7%%), and also the computer giant IBM (+1,3%%). At the same time Nasdaq decreased by 0,20%% and finished trading session on a level of 3931,95 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,43%% reaching level of 1770,49 points.

The Leading Index of the USA published yesterday showed vigorous lifting for 0,7%%, having exceeded market expectations and showed that there are no reasons for troubles concerning health of the American economy, at least, until the end of this year. In this context the index of volatility of the American stocks, VIX, fell yesterday to 2-month minimum, having reflected very complacent spirit of investors.

Today investors will be very cautious before a release of important data from the USA and the decision of European Central Bank and Bank of England. As a whole, investors expect weak data on gross domestic product and a labor market that will promote further continuation of the program of quantitative easing in the USA up to spring of the next year.

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2013/11/06

Investors are Starting to Look on Facts and Figures

On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a small decrease in the main indexes. After the two days growth of an index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500, investors didn't manage to find motivation to push indexes to go up, quite good macroeconomic statistics didn't rescue the market from prevalence of bears. Let's remind that the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in October increased from 54,4 to 55,4 points, whereas decrease to 54 was expected.

Participants of the market already overcame the first euphoria after the government of the USA found a compromise and now are starting to look on facts and figures. After a long suspension of work of government agencies in October and decreasing speeds of recovery of American labor market - the investment community has no full picture about state of the economy, and investors are starting to have doubts in, whether the growth of the indexes which we have seen during the last month has been logical.

The external background for the American trading session has been quite negative, as the European markets showed bear dynamics, and Asian platforms were traded in a different directions. Additionally to this more negative has been brought to the markets by comments of the Jeffrey Leker, president of the FRS of Richmond, who has told that the economy of the USA next year will grow only by 2%, then up till the events of October – forecast of to 2,9-3,1% has been predicted.

As a result, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,13% to level of 15618,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,28% to a level of 1762,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,08% and reached a level of 3939,86 points.

In the commodities market, price for oil continue to fall. Yesterday price for WTI decreased to a price of 93,37$ per barrel and has been losing 1,3%. This morning, prices are recovering and Brent and WTI are adding a bit more than 0,5% bargaining on a levels of 105,90$ and 94,21$ per barrel accordingly.

We shouldn't forget that key events of the current week are going to be meeting of European Central Bank and a release of the last official data on unemployment for October from the Ministry of Labor of the USA. These events will happen on Thursday and Friday respectively, therefore today again activity in stock market will be lowered.

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2013/11/05

Markets move depending on published statistical data

Yesterday we did not see any essential changes in foreign stock markets. The American platforms on Monday has been traded with the volumes which has been lower than average, Dow Jones increased by 0,15%%, S&P 500 grew by 0,36%%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0,38%%. Support to the markets was given by R. Fisher's speech, where he negatively expressed his attitude towards political disagreements between republicans and democrats that led to the termination of financing of the budgetary establishments.

In the meantime, Asian platforms bargain in a different directions. Better than others feels the Australian ASX200 which adds about 0,8%%, supported by the news that Reserve Bank of Australia kept an interest rate at the current level of 2,5%%. Chinese Shanghai Composite decreases by 0,4%%. In the morning has been published the index of business activity in a services sector according to the HSBC version, which in October grew to 52,6 points. The Japanese market after a national holiday on Monday shows sluggish movement, increasing by 0,1%% in relation to closing levels of Friday.

It can be assumed that trading session in the European stock platforms is going to pass rather quietly, due to the fact that there are not a lot of statistical data to be published today.  Data of economic moods of the countries of the Eurozone yesterday showed traditionally good results. As it has been expected, the PMI index in the production sector for the region made 51,3 points, having confirmed an initial assessment. The indicator of economic moods of Sentix in November continued the growth from 6 to 9 points, reflecting growth of business activity.

As to the important statistical data, today will be published PMI index of Great Britain in a services sector and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone, which shows decrease in rates of the growth since the end of 2011. In the evening also are going to be published numbers of ISM Services PMI in the USA. Indexes for the non-productive sphere, most likely, will confirm today the high level of optimism reached within a year.





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2013/11/04

The markets open month having made a good start

The Dow Jones index raised on 0.45%% to 15615.55 points, the gain in a week made 0.3%%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised on 0.29%%, having closed at the level of 1761.64 points, and having gained in a week just 0.1%%. The Nasdaq Composite index raised on 0.06%% to value of 3922.04 points, having lowered within a week on 0.5%%.

On Friday were published only one important macroeconomic news across the USA - an assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by Institute of management of deliveries of the USA, in October grew to the maximum value since April, 2011 having reached level of 56.4 points, then analytics were predicting decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering all that situation which we could observe in October in connection with threat of a default. It should be noted that this index the 5th month in a row stays on a level above 50 points which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive of the American industrial data was supported by higher, than it was expected, growth rates of industrial activity in China in October.

The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing down going trend. The price of futures of gold on Friday fell for 10.50 dollars or 0.9%% to a value of 1313.20 dollars for troy ounce. This morning gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price owing to essential strengthening of positions of dollar in a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of EUR/USD currency pair. Factor that FRS in the final document of the last meeting didn't exclude possibility of reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year also has been a significant factor, pushing gold down. As a total, gold for a week lost 2.9%%. Due to the falling of prices of gold, the world's largest gold-mining company the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%%, and the leader in the USA and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining receded for 4.7%%.

The price of Brent is on a level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on a price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to minimum levels since June 21st, due to the strengthening of dollar and continuous growth of its stocks within last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%%.

The upcoming week is the first week of new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.

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2013/11/01

Investors continue to digest results of FED meeting

The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a raw. Dow Jones decreased for 0,47%% and has been traded on the level of 15545,75 points, S&P500 fell to level of 1756,54 points losing 0,36%%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0,27%% being at the end of the day at the level of 3919,17 points. Main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for time now all statistics is perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.

Yesterday investors have been waiting for the results of FED meeting and now continue to digest results of it, trying to find in the text anything which can outline when QE-3 program will start to be reduced.  A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but already in January 2014 by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for full turning by September, 2014.

American news do not really bother investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033,9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18,67%%.

However it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular a situation with euro strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on a further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned to be quite weak – only increased uncertainty in relation to Euro.

Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of Euro. Earlier during a week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that decrease in a rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank can again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient level. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that process of recovery proceeds unstably.

As a result, pair from level of opening on1,3733 came down to a minimum of 1,3583, having finished the day around 1,36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on a level of 1,35610.

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