2013/10/30

The whole world expects optimism from FRS decisions

The American trading session again ended reaching new historical maxima. S&P 500 updates records the third session in a row, NASDAQ is on a maximum levels since September, 2000. Again weak statistics have been giving support to the markets and was pushing indexes to go up. Retails in the USA decreased in September by 0,1%%, then growth of 0,1%% has been expected. The index of consumer confidence of Conference Board fell to 71,2 from 79,7.

It is natural that this published statistics is leading investors to buy more before FRS meeting. The majority of participants of the market doesn't expect any changes in the volume of the quantitative program. It is also worth remembering the prices of houses. The S&P/Case-Shiller index in August showed a rise of 12.8%% in prices for residential real estate in 20 main city formations of the USA. Just during the August price grew by +0,9%%.

The Asian markets are also full of optimism. MSCI Asia-Pacific in Tokyo rose by 0,5%%. Industrial production in Japan grew in September. This morning Nikkei 225 grew up for 1,03%%, and Shanghai Composite adds  0,76%%.

As to the commodity market, then here gold is not moving, seems to be waiting for FRS decision. Quotations decreased on Tuesday and this morning gold is traded on a price of 1346,27$ per troy ounce adding 0,06%%. Even reserves of SPDR Gold Trust didn't change. Oil also is decreasing second day in a raw, especially Light having losing 0,44%% and traded on a price of 97,77$ per barrel. Brent is up for 0,12%% at a price of 109,14$ per barrel.

Today it is necessary to pay attention to the following macroeconomic events like unemployment in Germany, indexes of expectations and business climate in the Eurozone, the indicator of employment of ADP Services, data on consumer inflation in the USA, data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on stocks and consumption of oil and oil products. And of course the results of the FED meeting, which have been awaited by participants of the market for the last two weeks.

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2013/10/29

The dollar continues insignificant strengthening

On Monday, October 28, the stock market of the United States finished trading session almost next to the zero levels. Following the results of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,01%% to the level of 15568,93 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,13%% to a level of 1762,11 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus for 0,08%% and reached a level of 3940,13 points. It is quite interesting that the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 is on a way to have the most advantageous year in a decade.

As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, the data on industrial production for September increased by 0,6%% at average forecasts of growth for 0,4%%. However it is impossible to tell that this fact influenced behaviour of investors - all are absorbed by thought that in any case October events removed the beginning of turning of QE till the next year.

In the commodity market futures for Brent are losing this morning 0,48%% traded on a price of 109,09$ per barrel, Light is down to 98,35$ per barrel having decreased for 0,33%%. Gold and silver are up for 0,14%% and 0,18%% accordingly traded on a 1354,02$ and 22,58$ per troy ounce.

The trading in the currency market at opening of week proceeded rather quietly. Publication of the retails of the USA will become the main influencing factor for EUR/USD today. Despite a delay in the publication, it will be interesting to see at what level there was a consumer demand directly before a political play. If the indicator will be quite weak, it will become one more reason for purchase. Pair can break a record of recently reached 2-year maximum on a level of 1,3831 and direct to the area of 1,3870 – level which we have seen last time in November, 2011.


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2013/10/28

Meeting Of The FRS Will Become A Significant Event Of The Week

In the European markets, trading dynamics on Friday were rather different. Indices of the peripheral countries were decreasing. The Spanish IBEX 35 lost 1.01%, the Italian FTSE MIB decreased by 1.45%, and the others were bargaining without almost any change.

Last week was full of statistics, which were moving markets in different directions, due to the fact that the presented data had not been supporting any trend. The index of business climate of IFO in Germany in October, unexpectedly decreased for the first time in half a year, from 107.7 points to 107.4 points. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in September grew by 3.7%. Final value of the index of consumer confidence of Michigan university decreased to 73.2 points, which was below preliminary data and forecasts.

However, despite the statistics, the main American indices on Friday continued careful growth, having added about 0.4%. S&P 500 had just little to go in order to reach a new historical maximum, having increased by 0.44%, and traded on the level of 1759.77 points. Partly it was promoted again by corporate reporting.

The main event of the week will become the announcement of the results of the FED meeting. Nevertheless, from the American regulator nobody expects any changes in the monetary policy. Supposedly, the program of monetary easing will not change. Volumes of purchases of securities within the program of quantitative easing will be kept at the level of 85 billion a month. Since September, not enough data was published that was capable to change the macroeconomic picture in favor of the need to begin the reduction of monetary incentives. Moreover, the report on the labor market for October was slightly worse than expectations, which is an additional limiting factor.



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2013/10/25

Quarterly reports of the companies continue to please investors

Leading European and American indexes grew yesterday by 0,2-0,6%%, increase was promoted by good corporate reports and weak statistics on employment from the USA. Investors look on the macroeconomic indicators as on confirmation that stimulating policies and monetary easing program will be still kept. Unemployment benefit figures in the USA which have showed growth of number of the requests to 350 thousand, then only 330 thousand were predicted, definitely is an argument for longer period of QE.

In turn reports of the American companies continue to please investors. The report of Microsoft, published after closing of the trading session, affected a rise in prices of company papers for 7%% during an electronic trading session. On the average the profit of 217 companies which have already reported for the last quarter from the S&P 500 index has been better than market expectations in 77%% of cases, profit in 53%%.

Commodities are again weak today, prices of oil rise slightly on Friday, but finish week with essential decrease. Brent is traded on a price of 107,05$ per barrel increasing from yesterday only for 0,06%%, Light is up for 0,03%% at price of 97,14$. Since the beginning of this week Brent fell in price for 2,4%%, the cost of WTI fell by 3,3%% that is the maximum decrease since June. Gold and silver are losing 0,63%% and 1,77%% accordingly. The future contract on oil of the Brent brand bargains at the price of $107 for barrel, WTI - $96 for barrel.

In relation to EUR/USD, dollar again has been under a strong pressure and pair could from level of opening of 1,3774 move to a maximum on 1,3824. Nevertheless, data which has been published yesterday has been rather inconsistent, data from the Eurozone limited further movements. PMI in France in manufacturing sector left below 50 points level, and in a services sector – didn't hold on to forecasts. Indicators in Germany showed similar dynamic. As a result, pair was rolled away to the area of 1,38, but even after this disappointing figures -  EUR/USD feels quite confident. However if today's indicators of IFO will confirm decrease, it will return pair to the area of 1,3710.



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2013/10/24

9-day rally in Europe has been ended

Yesterday stock indexes finished trading session in a red zone. Weak quarter results of a number of the largest companies, and also Mario Dragi's statement for the forthcoming stress tests of banks became the main reason for a suspension of 9-day rally, the longest for the last 40 months.

Papers of the European banks were under strong pressure. The reason for that has been speech of the head of European Central Bank M.Dragi, who during his press conference stated rather rigidly that if the bank didn't pass a stress test, it needs to be bankrupted. This means that peripheral banks shouldn't count on the help from outside. I will remind that already in November, the European regulator will begin complex check of the financial institutions. Any bankruptcy even if it will be initiated by the government of the country, will promote sales of shares, especially in banking sector.

The British FTSE 100 receded for 0,32%%, French CAC 40 lost 0,81%% and German DAX weakened for 0,31%%.

Strangely enough, all these conversations had limited impact on EUR/USD. Analytics are stating that lately euro is in demand from Asian institutional investors which are reconsidering the currency reserves and are not believing in dollar. Pair from level of opening 1,3779 went down to a minimum of 1,3741 and this morning went throw the level of 1,38 and is traded on a level of 1,3815.

USA indexes also moderately decreased, however significant sales didn't happen. Following the results of the trading session the Dow Jones index decreased by 0,35%%, and S&P500 - for 0,49%%. The Chinese Shanghai Comp. decreasing by 0,2%%, and the Japanese Nikkei falling for 0,6%% are the outsiders of the day. In particular, it can be caused by the publication of preliminary data on an index of business activity in China according to the HSBC version - the indicator decreased to 50,9 points.

Today there will be one more chance to check, what economy is recovering more steadily. Data on business activity in manufacturing industry and in services sector of Eurozone and Germany will cause a great interest of the market participants. If business activity in both sectors will appear again above forecasts, demand for currency pair will increase. In case EUR/USD will break level of 1,3780, pair will direct to the area of 1,3840.



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2013/10/23

The statistics on a labor market of USA disappointed investors

Long-awaited September data on employment disappointed participants of the market, having shown a gain which has been much weaker than expectations. However it helped to strengthen opinion that at such sluggish dynamics of a labor market - FRS won't risk to displace the QE program.

The Ministry of Labour reported that employment in non-agricultural sectors increased by 148 thousands, then 180 thousands were forecasted. In the press release it has been noted that growth of the indicator was observed in construction, wholesale trade, transportation and warehouse sectors. Unemployment rate thus unexpectedly decreased to 7,2%% from 7,3%%. The average duration of working week remained at former level of 34,5 hours, but growth rates of an average hourly salary showed slower development - 0,1%% against expected 0,2%%.

As a result, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 0,49%% plus on a level of 15467,66 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 0,57%% to the level of 1754,67 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq grew up for 0,24%% to a level of 3929,57 points.

Despite positive development on the stock markets, we could observe that on currency markets volatility read off scale and the dollar got under strong pressure. Euro could break the important level of 1,37 and continued its growth, having reached maximum at 1,3788. This morning, currency pair bargains near 1,3767. Tomorrow will be published PMI index of the Eurozone, if they will appear to be again above forecasts, it only will strengthen determination of the currency pair to continue it’s growth. After breakdown of the resistance level on 1,3780, currency pair will direct to the area based on 1,3840.

Commodities are decreasing in price today. Brent and Light are losing 0,32%% and 0,54%% accordingly, Light went below price of 98,00$ per barrel and is traded on a price of 97,77$ per barrel. Gold is traded on a price of 13336,78$ per troy ounce losing 0,43%% and silver is down for 0,31%% at price of 22,72$ per troy ounce.



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2013/10/22

Investors Look Forward To Data On The US Labor Market

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly.



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On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly. - See more at: https://www.mayzus.com/en/market-reviews/marketreview-5088.html#sthash.4pBbAun0.dpuf
On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly. - See more at: https://www.mayzus.com/en/market-reviews/marketreview-5088.html#sthash.4pBbAun0.dpuf

2013/10/21

Growth in the stock markets continues

New trading week begins rather quietly and without any surprises after weekend. On Friday the American market continued the growth, thanks to what index Dow Jones increased for 0,18%% reaching level of 15399,65 points, Nasdaq added 1,32%% and finished trading week on a level of 3914,28 points, S&P500 increased for 0,66%% up to the level of 1744,50 points.

In general, this continuous growth can be described with the bad effect on the economy of USA, while the politicians in Washington were unwilling to agree and solve matters. FRS will be compelled to prolong repayment of bonds without reduction of volumes, most likely, at least till February of the next year. Also we believe, today growth also will proceed.

Also successful quarter results of a number of the leading American companies are giving indexes power to move further up. Some of the companies which presented their quarterly results on Friday – extremely surprised markets. Google reported growth of quarter net profit for 36%%, for the first time the price of its shares passed through a level of 1000 dollars, having reached maximum cost at 1011 dollars.

As to the commodities market, then here oil and precious metals prices are quite stable. Brent this morning is losing just 0,08%% traded on a price of 109,85$ per barrel, Light is decreasing a bit more – traded on a price of 100,88$ per barrel and losing 0,23%%. Gold and Silver are up on 0,52%% and 1,39%% accordingly.

It is important to admit that despite the fact that the stock markets continues its growth, American dollar is under significant pressure for the last few weeks. Today EUR/USD currency pair is traded on a level of 1,3682. Upcoming week will be saturated on important macroeconomic statistics as public institutions of the USA resume work and will start publishing the releases passed during the previous weeks. We will see figures on sales volumes in the secondary market of real estate, Bureaus of labor statistics will deliver the report on quantity of new workplaces and unemployment rate. The released data might have significant influence on further development of the dollar.



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2013/10/18

The attention of investors switched over to macroeconomic statistics

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,01%% to level of 15371,65 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,67%% to a level of 1733,15 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,62%% and reached a level of 3863,15 points.

Data on industrial production and the number of started constructions weren't published yesterday, but the weekly statistics on number of primary requests for unemployment benefits showed small decrease, from the reconsidered 373 thousand to 358 thousand, but nevertheless this decrease was weaker than expected 335 thousand.

Yesterday we had an opportunity to observe in the market classical scheme "buy on hearings – sell on the facts". As soon as the USA declared the decision, the markets ceased to support the American currency. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day around the level of 1,3670, and GBP/USD – around 1,6150.

EUR/USD got good support not only due to technical correction, but also in connection with news that the Chinese rating agency lowered the status of a sovereign debt of the USA from A to -A. Pair reached a minimum at 1,3515 then announcement of restoration of work of the American government was done, however right after that started to grow. As a result, currency reached its maximum at 1,3675.

One more interesting development could be observed in the gold and silver market. The most interesting moment is that prices of gold punched upward a bearish corridor from 28th of August 2013. Considering that the stop of activity of the government caused to the USA economic damage, FRS at the meeting at the end of the month won't decide on reduction of the program of monetary easing. In November are going to start discussions regarding  Janet Yellen taking her post as a head of FED,  madam Yellen will defend for certain adaptive monetary policy that will give support to gold. This morning gold is decreasing for 0.41%% having traded on a price of 1317,47$ per troy ounce.



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2013/10/17

The congress of the USA saved the country from a default at the last moment

Yesterday trading session was passing under undiverted expectation of news from the USA and as it has been predicted - the decision was made at the last moment. The day ended up with the news that the Senate of the USA almost unanimously voted for temporary increase of a ceiling of a national debt and renewal of financing of the government, a bit later the House of Representatives also approved the document.

Let's remind that earlier the Congress of the USA also voted for the law which resumes government financing till January 15, 2014 and prevents default threat at least till February 7, 2014.Now actually only the final decision of the president needs to be obtained. However, Barack Obama already before declared that he will sign the bill immediately. Thus, Washington kept the firm traditions - rescued economy from a default at the last minute time.

Obviously these awaited news gave an immediate boost to the markets before closing and we could observe some kind of a dynamic rally. Dow Jones raised on 1,36%% to level of 15373,83 points, Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 1,38%% to a level of 1721,54 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went up for 1,20%% and reached a level of 3839,43 points.

As to the currency market, then we could not see any positive support for dollar and so far dollar is continuing to weaken to other major currencies. Most probably awaited decision of the congress has been already put in the price.  Now after the solution of a question comes understanding of how much politicians did harm the American economy with all the fights. It is possible to expect correctional kickback in EUR/USD pair with next purpose based on 1,36.


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