The dollar edged higher on expectations US Federal Reserve (FED) based on better economic data will start tapering monetary easing in September or later in the autumn. Central bank meetings are due in the United States, England and European Central Bank (ECB) later in the week. No big changes are expected, but a FED policy decision pointing towards a termination in bond buying will probably put upward pressure on the interest rates and strengthen the dollar.
The dollar gained both against EURO, 1.3254, and Japanese yen which paid 98,06 yen to a dollar. The DXY-index where dollar is weighed towards a basket of six major currencies was up 0,3 %% from a five week low. Oil prices, and precious metals, gold and silver lost ground on a stronger dollar. The Swedish krone lost one percent on the Minister of Finance’s announcement of weaknesses in the generally perceived strong Scandinavian economy.
The US banking giant JP Morgan Chase which lately has been under regulators sharp scrutiny, settled on a USD 410 million on alleged power market manipulations in California and Midwestern states. The settlement involved that JPM admitted the facts presented by the Federal Energy Regulator without denying or admitting the facts. Banks involvement in the commodity chain by trading metals and at the same time owing warehouses and pipeline/plants have latest this week been under increasing fire from Congress. The disputed practice was initiated in 2003.
Global stock markets have lost some of its momentum starting a new trading week. Both Dow Jones and S&P ended in red following a selloff in telecoms and materials after disappoint quarterly results from Verizon and Mosaic.
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2013/07/31
2013/07/30
Stocks Fall as USD Struggles
Wall Street stocks fell broadly as investors eye - US Federal Reserve (FED) two day policy meeting starting tomorrow. Its statement will be closely scrutinized and interpreted for any signal that FED will start tapering monetary easing. Economic data both from Euro zone and the United States last week were better than expected. If July monthly jobless figures to be published at the end of the week comes out on the positive side, this would constitute a strong argument for FED tapering in September as many observers have forecasted.
Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P fell broadly yesterday, indicating that the air might start to run out of weeks’ booming stock markets. The European stock markets were also weaker yesterday following a 3,3 %% fall in the Nikkei index in Japan during Monday morning. The steep fall in the Nikkei followed a new increase in the value of the Japanese yen which rose to 97,83 yen to a dollar, a 2 %% gain to the dollar over the last week. A stronger yen works against the interests of the big Japanese exporters and weigh negatively on the Nikkei.
Euro traded steady against the dollar at 1,3261. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the release of a new tranche of loans to Greece amounting to USD 2.2 B. The release follows a fourth review of the “troika” which together with IMF, ECB and EU releases a tranche of Euro 6,8 B. The total value of the loans granted in March 2012 amounts to Euro 175 Billion over a period of four years. The loans are dependent upon serious austerity measures including firing thousands of state employees, likely to raise to new strikes and social unrest.
Oil prices which peaked to months high last week, have stabilized. Brent crude fell to below USD 107 a barrel on the first trading day on Monday, but has recovered 107,57, NYMEX, New, York crude, which traded higher than Brent for some days ago, stays steady between USD 104 and 105. Gold is down from its high on USD 1338 an ounce last week, trading at 1328. Silver which reached USD 20,50 last week, trades in the interval between USD 19,80 – 20,00 an ounce.
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P fell broadly yesterday, indicating that the air might start to run out of weeks’ booming stock markets. The European stock markets were also weaker yesterday following a 3,3 %% fall in the Nikkei index in Japan during Monday morning. The steep fall in the Nikkei followed a new increase in the value of the Japanese yen which rose to 97,83 yen to a dollar, a 2 %% gain to the dollar over the last week. A stronger yen works against the interests of the big Japanese exporters and weigh negatively on the Nikkei.
Euro traded steady against the dollar at 1,3261. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the release of a new tranche of loans to Greece amounting to USD 2.2 B. The release follows a fourth review of the “troika” which together with IMF, ECB and EU releases a tranche of Euro 6,8 B. The total value of the loans granted in March 2012 amounts to Euro 175 Billion over a period of four years. The loans are dependent upon serious austerity measures including firing thousands of state employees, likely to raise to new strikes and social unrest.
Oil prices which peaked to months high last week, have stabilized. Brent crude fell to below USD 107 a barrel on the first trading day on Monday, but has recovered 107,57, NYMEX, New, York crude, which traded higher than Brent for some days ago, stays steady between USD 104 and 105. Gold is down from its high on USD 1338 an ounce last week, trading at 1328. Silver which reached USD 20,50 last week, trades in the interval between USD 19,80 – 20,00 an ounce.
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2013/07/29
Dollar ends week lower
Concerns that the US Federal Reserve (FED) may lower its unemployment threshold at 6,5 % before terminating monetary easing and its USD 85 Billion monthly bond buying program, sent the dollar lower on Friday. Euro/USD climbed 1,1 % to 1.3282 over the week. The dollar as lost against a basket of currencies. Inflation data Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Upper House victory, boosted the Japanese yen. USD/JPY fell back from 100,32 to 98,50 yen a dollar. New Zealand dollar was the biggest gainer of the week gaining 2 % against its US counterpart.
Speculation about a lower unemployment threshold comes after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke insistence that any monetary easing remained data-dependent. This convinced investors that any raise in interest rates was still a long way off. Investors have interpreted FED forward rate guidance that an interest rate hike will come earliest in 2016. The speculation was triggered by an article in Wall Street Journal which immediately put the dollar and US treasury yield under pressure. If the report signals false alarm, USD will rally.
EURO gained ground on optimism on a turnaround in the Euro zone which is still in deep recession. Even if the Euro zone remains in contraction, the negative figures are better than previous months due mainly to the recovery in Germany which continues to deliver better than its fellow European members. It is expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave its interest rate unchanged when it meets later in the week.
The global equity market was in spite of good US-corporate quarterly results under pressure as China doubts on growth take hold. Indexes all over the world have climbed to new record highs, and technical corrections may be expected on this uncertainty. Gold and silver have consolidated last week’s gains after FED’s dovish attitude. Gold stays above USD 1300. Precious metals are helped by raising demand in China where sales volumes in gold and silver jewellery and coins are at record highs so far in 2013.
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Speculation about a lower unemployment threshold comes after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke insistence that any monetary easing remained data-dependent. This convinced investors that any raise in interest rates was still a long way off. Investors have interpreted FED forward rate guidance that an interest rate hike will come earliest in 2016. The speculation was triggered by an article in Wall Street Journal which immediately put the dollar and US treasury yield under pressure. If the report signals false alarm, USD will rally.
EURO gained ground on optimism on a turnaround in the Euro zone which is still in deep recession. Even if the Euro zone remains in contraction, the negative figures are better than previous months due mainly to the recovery in Germany which continues to deliver better than its fellow European members. It is expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will leave its interest rate unchanged when it meets later in the week.
The global equity market was in spite of good US-corporate quarterly results under pressure as China doubts on growth take hold. Indexes all over the world have climbed to new record highs, and technical corrections may be expected on this uncertainty. Gold and silver have consolidated last week’s gains after FED’s dovish attitude. Gold stays above USD 1300. Precious metals are helped by raising demand in China where sales volumes in gold and silver jewellery and coins are at record highs so far in 2013.
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2013/07/26
Global Shares Drop on Chinese Worries
Shares fell worldwide on Thursday on worries about China’s slowdown and its impact on corporate earnings. These fears weighed heavier than tokens that Europe slowly might drag itself out of recession. Data showing better business morale in Germany and improvements in British economy pointing towards modest growth, did little to spark fresh demand from investors more focused on recent developments in Asia.
Investors worry that the Chinese growth engine is no longer running at full power. Chinese stocks suffered their second straight loss on Thursday despite measures from the government to spur the economy with heavy investments in railway and encouragement of the export industry. The Asia-Pacific, MSCI-index, lost 0,5 % from the previous day’s seven week closing high. Worries about China were also reflected in commodity markets, where copper dropped 0,5 %. Brent crude fell for a second day in row at USD 106,59 a barrel. Gold stands at USD 1314.
There have been marginal changes in the currencies. EUR/USD has lost 35 points and trades at 1.3196. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades stronger against the USD at 99,68. The dollar is again dipping below the 100 yen a dollar mark.
Facebook shares soar after the social media delivered much stronger results than expected. Presented quarterly earnings delivered strong evidence that Facebook can drive on smartphones and tablets. Advertising revenue in the second quarter ignited a nearly 17 % share a rally. 700 million people daily use the Facebook platform. Facebook which was off to a rocky start when it introduced its IP in May 2012. In spite of a 15 % increase in the stock price yesterday, Facebook has still 20 % to go to reach its IPO-price.
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Investors worry that the Chinese growth engine is no longer running at full power. Chinese stocks suffered their second straight loss on Thursday despite measures from the government to spur the economy with heavy investments in railway and encouragement of the export industry. The Asia-Pacific, MSCI-index, lost 0,5 % from the previous day’s seven week closing high. Worries about China were also reflected in commodity markets, where copper dropped 0,5 %. Brent crude fell for a second day in row at USD 106,59 a barrel. Gold stands at USD 1314.
There have been marginal changes in the currencies. EUR/USD has lost 35 points and trades at 1.3196. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades stronger against the USD at 99,68. The dollar is again dipping below the 100 yen a dollar mark.
Facebook shares soar after the social media delivered much stronger results than expected. Presented quarterly earnings delivered strong evidence that Facebook can drive on smartphones and tablets. Advertising revenue in the second quarter ignited a nearly 17 % share a rally. 700 million people daily use the Facebook platform. Facebook which was off to a rocky start when it introduced its IP in May 2012. In spite of a 15 % increase in the stock price yesterday, Facebook has still 20 % to go to reach its IPO-price.
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2013/07/25
USD and Euro pick up globally
US stocks edged lower on Wednesday after days with increases and new record highs. Disappointing results from heavyweights, Caterpillar and AT&T, overshadowed a solid quarterly earnings report from the world highest capitalized company, Apple. The dollar DXY-index weighed against a basket of six major currencies, picked up on data showing stronger domestic manufacturing and housing numbers in June. New home sales rose to a five-year high
Surprise improvement in US and European factory activity offset further signs of cooling in the China’s economy. New data show that the Chinese manufacturing sector is contracting for the third straight month. That had an immediate impact on the oil demand where prices fell 2 dollar. NYMEX and Brent crude trade USD 106 – 107 a barrel. On Monday strong statements from the new Chinese Premier lifted global stocks demonstrating markets volatility on day to day economic news.
Seemingly better outlooks for the United States and Europe caused investors to reduce safe-haven holdings in US and German Government debt. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, which has risen close to USD 100 an ounce over the last four days, snapped its winning streak on profit taking. The same trend is witnessed in silver which also has taken a breathier after several winning days after being in free fall over the five – six months.
Apple’s results which initially were met with some reluctance when presented after the closing session on Tuesday, beat analyst’s forecasts. The stock price climbed 5,9 % at USD 443,87, a far cry thoughfrom the peak numbers in the high 600 a year ago. Apple has promised solid dividends. This is also pleasing investord which took the stock to its highest level since June 10th. The stronger euro-zone factory data sent the Euro/USD to a one month high at 1.3230. USD/JPY is gaining ground trading above 100 yen to a dollar.
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Surprise improvement in US and European factory activity offset further signs of cooling in the China’s economy. New data show that the Chinese manufacturing sector is contracting for the third straight month. That had an immediate impact on the oil demand where prices fell 2 dollar. NYMEX and Brent crude trade USD 106 – 107 a barrel. On Monday strong statements from the new Chinese Premier lifted global stocks demonstrating markets volatility on day to day economic news.
Seemingly better outlooks for the United States and Europe caused investors to reduce safe-haven holdings in US and German Government debt. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, which has risen close to USD 100 an ounce over the last four days, snapped its winning streak on profit taking. The same trend is witnessed in silver which also has taken a breathier after several winning days after being in free fall over the five – six months.
Apple’s results which initially were met with some reluctance when presented after the closing session on Tuesday, beat analyst’s forecasts. The stock price climbed 5,9 % at USD 443,87, a far cry thoughfrom the peak numbers in the high 600 a year ago. Apple has promised solid dividends. This is also pleasing investord which took the stock to its highest level since June 10th. The stronger euro-zone factory data sent the Euro/USD to a one month high at 1.3230. USD/JPY is gaining ground trading above 100 yen to a dollar.
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2013/07/24
China shows muscles
The US dollar continues to lose ground against most currencies. The DXY-index, a dollar weighed towards basket of six major currencies, fell also on Tuesday from Monday’s low on 82,325. The Euro inched marginally above 1,32. USD/JPY keeps steady at 99,721. After new record highs in Asia spurred by a Chinese stock rally, Wall Street continued to new record highs on on good quarterly earnings from Dupoint and United Technology. Apple is going to present results after closing in New York.
In an upbeat statement on Tuesday the new Chinese Premier stressed that the aim of his authorities is to double the Chinese Gross Domestic Product, GDP, from 2010 to 2020, To obtain this target an economic growth of minimum 7 % annually is needed. The last forecasts for yearly growth in China in 2013 is 7,5 %. The Chinese government has introduced measures which encourage bigger competition between banks and financial lenders while simultaneously keeping inflation under control.
The Hang Seng index added 2,1 % on the announcement that China shall start huge infrastructure projects within the railway industry. These projects will consume big amounts of cement, steel and commodities and are seen by markets as a sure token that China will continue to be the same driving global force as it has been for the last years. Chinese new leadership has no ambition to give up on ambitious targets set by its predecessors. It also determined to avoid any hard landing in its economy.
The Chinese statements were positively received as were quarterly earnings results from the US and the Federal Reserve’s (FED) statement last week that monetary easing is going to continue for an unforeseeable future. Oil prices are keeping steady at USD 108 a barrel level, and gold and silver started the week with higher prices than seen in weeks. Gold took a breathier on Tuesday and stayed at USD 1336 after adding 3 % on Monday. Commodities don’t show any clear direction, but the Chinese statements should represent a clear boost for a sector being under strong pressure.
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In an upbeat statement on Tuesday the new Chinese Premier stressed that the aim of his authorities is to double the Chinese Gross Domestic Product, GDP, from 2010 to 2020, To obtain this target an economic growth of minimum 7 % annually is needed. The last forecasts for yearly growth in China in 2013 is 7,5 %. The Chinese government has introduced measures which encourage bigger competition between banks and financial lenders while simultaneously keeping inflation under control.
The Hang Seng index added 2,1 % on the announcement that China shall start huge infrastructure projects within the railway industry. These projects will consume big amounts of cement, steel and commodities and are seen by markets as a sure token that China will continue to be the same driving global force as it has been for the last years. Chinese new leadership has no ambition to give up on ambitious targets set by its predecessors. It also determined to avoid any hard landing in its economy.
The Chinese statements were positively received as were quarterly earnings results from the US and the Federal Reserve’s (FED) statement last week that monetary easing is going to continue for an unforeseeable future. Oil prices are keeping steady at USD 108 a barrel level, and gold and silver started the week with higher prices than seen in weeks. Gold took a breathier on Tuesday and stayed at USD 1336 after adding 3 % on Monday. Commodities don’t show any clear direction, but the Chinese statements should represent a clear boost for a sector being under strong pressure.
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2013/07/23
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McDonald’s fails to deliver
After hitherto strong quarterly earnings season the heavyweight, McDonald’s missed to deliver according to expectations. US-housing numbers for June were also weaker than forecasts. After jumping in April and May the growth in housing sales unexpectedly took a breather last month. Experts are nevertheless not willing to see the late figures as a token of underlying weaknesses in retail and US economic fundamentals. The weaker profits of the world’s largest restaurant retailer are mainly seen as a result of declining sales in its biggest market, Europe.
In Europe one of the leading banks, the Swiss UBS, followed up the strong banking results from the United States and beats forecast. That in spite of an expansive lawsuit settlement with US regulatory authorities over housing bonds prior to the financial crisis in 2008. UBs added 2,7 % and reached a two-year high during yesterday’s trade.
The trading week started with a fall in dollar both in relation to Japanese yen (JPY) following Prime Minister Abe’s victory in the Upper Chamber elections and in a stronger Euro. Abe has promised to keep focus on the economy. USD/JPY fell to 99,42 during Monday’s trade. Euro/USD added 100 points during Monday’s trading at 1.3215. The British Pound (GBP) stands at 1,5368 against the green back.
Gold reached its highest level in a month and jumped USD 1328 an ounce after dipping below the 1200 level only a couple of weeks ago. Silver has also recovered strongly at 20.42. For the first time in years New York crude, NYMEX, trades higher that Brent crude, both are above US 108 a barrel.
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In Europe one of the leading banks, the Swiss UBS, followed up the strong banking results from the United States and beats forecast. That in spite of an expansive lawsuit settlement with US regulatory authorities over housing bonds prior to the financial crisis in 2008. UBs added 2,7 % and reached a two-year high during yesterday’s trade.
The trading week started with a fall in dollar both in relation to Japanese yen (JPY) following Prime Minister Abe’s victory in the Upper Chamber elections and in a stronger Euro. Abe has promised to keep focus on the economy. USD/JPY fell to 99,42 during Monday’s trade. Euro/USD added 100 points during Monday’s trading at 1.3215. The British Pound (GBP) stands at 1,5368 against the green back.
Gold reached its highest level in a month and jumped USD 1328 an ounce after dipping below the 1200 level only a couple of weeks ago. Silver has also recovered strongly at 20.42. For the first time in years New York crude, NYMEX, trades higher that Brent crude, both are above US 108 a barrel.
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2013/07/22
Record high Inflows in stocks
Outstanding quarterly results for the major American banks and Federal Reserve (FED) assurances to keep supporting the US economy by continued printing of dollars, have spurred investors to pour more money into US equity funds last week than at any time since the financial crisis in 2009. Global markets seem to also have regained its appetite for stocks; equity markets being for the moment by far the best sector to invest money into.
The three major US-indexes; Dow Jones Industrial, the technology heavy NASDAQ and S&P financials have posted one record after the other in July after being rocked by volatility in May and June.
The big banks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have all beaten analysts forecasts for their quarterly earnings. S&P hit a record USD 15 trillion after the three biggest banks posted USD 23,12 billion of net income for the three months to July, the highest being reported since second quarter of 2007.
It is, however, worth reminding that only one year later; in 2008 financial markets suffered its worth crisis in decades and brought the liberal market economy on the verge of collapse. Some analysts foresee a similar development when FED finally decides to terminate its excessive bond buying program. For now the market is run by optimism. S&P financials index is up more than 6 % in July. There has been a strong increased demands for trading and investments banking services.
The record inflows into the stock market contrast with money pulled from bond funds. Last week saw outflows of USD 1,7 Billion from investment-grade debt funds and another billion of outflows from US treasuries as investors turned away from assets regarded as “safe”. The riskier high-yield bonds saw USD 4 billion in inflows: the highest level in two years. Exchange traded funds which track US stocks, have over the last month attracted USD 24,4B bn in inflows, four times higher than in the previous six months.
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The three major US-indexes; Dow Jones Industrial, the technology heavy NASDAQ and S&P financials have posted one record after the other in July after being rocked by volatility in May and June.
The big banks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J P Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have all beaten analysts forecasts for their quarterly earnings. S&P hit a record USD 15 trillion after the three biggest banks posted USD 23,12 billion of net income for the three months to July, the highest being reported since second quarter of 2007.
It is, however, worth reminding that only one year later; in 2008 financial markets suffered its worth crisis in decades and brought the liberal market economy on the verge of collapse. Some analysts foresee a similar development when FED finally decides to terminate its excessive bond buying program. For now the market is run by optimism. S&P financials index is up more than 6 % in July. There has been a strong increased demands for trading and investments banking services.
The record inflows into the stock market contrast with money pulled from bond funds. Last week saw outflows of USD 1,7 Billion from investment-grade debt funds and another billion of outflows from US treasuries as investors turned away from assets regarded as “safe”. The riskier high-yield bonds saw USD 4 billion in inflows: the highest level in two years. Exchange traded funds which track US stocks, have over the last month attracted USD 24,4B bn in inflows, four times higher than in the previous six months.
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2013/07/19
Sharp fell in jobless claims
New claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to their lowest level in four months. This might probably bolster expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will start tapering its monetary stimulus this year. The better jobless data come just one day after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke made his presentation to Congress where he made the continuation of the bond buying program dependent on the “health” of the US economy.
The initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 24 000 to seasonally adjusted 334 000. The fall was much deeper than analysts had predicted and appeared to back the case for FED winding down the bond buying during 2013. The dollar extended gains against the yen, a sign that investors are betting on tighter monetary policy in the future. Overnight the Euro has gained ground against USD trading at 1.3137. USD/JPY trades at 100,10.
In another development the international rating agency Moody’s has raised the outlook on US economy from negative to stable and affirmed the country’s triple-A- rating. Moody’s is citing steady growth despite the reduced government spending. The US budget outlook has improved in recent months, alleviating some of the pressure on policymakers for further budget cuts and more fiscal compromises. In May the Congressional Budget office stated that the deficit is shrinking faster than since 2008.
Better than expected earnings took Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs yesterday. Morgan Stanley jumped 4,4 % and posted a 42 % increase in quarterly profit. 76 % of the financials reporting earnings have surpassed estimates. Health and health insurance stocks beat expectations while Microsoft failed to deliver. Dow Jones climbed to 15 589. S&P’s new record is 1693. The Japanese Nikkei which reached a two-month high earlier in the week, slid 1.1 % on profit taking and fear that nationalistic policies will be given priority at the expense of structural reform.
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The initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 24 000 to seasonally adjusted 334 000. The fall was much deeper than analysts had predicted and appeared to back the case for FED winding down the bond buying during 2013. The dollar extended gains against the yen, a sign that investors are betting on tighter monetary policy in the future. Overnight the Euro has gained ground against USD trading at 1.3137. USD/JPY trades at 100,10.
In another development the international rating agency Moody’s has raised the outlook on US economy from negative to stable and affirmed the country’s triple-A- rating. Moody’s is citing steady growth despite the reduced government spending. The US budget outlook has improved in recent months, alleviating some of the pressure on policymakers for further budget cuts and more fiscal compromises. In May the Congressional Budget office stated that the deficit is shrinking faster than since 2008.
Better than expected earnings took Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs yesterday. Morgan Stanley jumped 4,4 % and posted a 42 % increase in quarterly profit. 76 % of the financials reporting earnings have surpassed estimates. Health and health insurance stocks beat expectations while Microsoft failed to deliver. Dow Jones climbed to 15 589. S&P’s new record is 1693. The Japanese Nikkei which reached a two-month high earlier in the week, slid 1.1 % on profit taking and fear that nationalistic policies will be given priority at the expense of structural reform.
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2013/07/18
FED opens for flexibility
Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress yesterday that he still expects FED to start scaling back on its massive USD 85 Billion monthly bond buying later this year. The door was however left open for changes if the economic outlook so require: “Our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments but they are by no means on a preset course”, Bernanke stated. His comments contained something for everybody, and gives FED plenty of room for maneuver.
His remarks pushed US stock futures and bond prices following the release of the statement. The dollar softened initially somewhat against the Euro and Japanese yen, but is now slightly stronger: Euro/USD stands at 1.3095 and USD/JPY has again crept above the 100 level trading at 100,11 yen a dollar. Oil prices are keeping the level seen in July. NYMEX, New York crude, stands at USD 106,33 and Brent at 108,44 a barrel. Gold is fifteen dollar down at USD 1276 an ounce.
During the questions/answering session in Congress, Bernanke was praised by Republicans and Democrats alike for his tenure as Fred Chairman. Bernanke is most likely going to resign when his term expires on January 31st. Many Republicans have privately blamed Bernanke for his aggressive monetary easing which they claim helped President Obama’s re-election. Some Republicans repeated these complaints as they warmly acknowledged his services.
Bernanke’s pledge to keep monetary easing for the foreseeable future, supported global market sentiments. Asian shares fell, however, on Thursday due to concerns over available financing for property developers in China. China introduced some weeks ago stricter control with the explosive “shadow banking” system, and investors fear the impact of these controls. Indexes fell all over Asia with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei which added 0,4 %. The dollar was steady against a basket of six currencies, DXY.
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His remarks pushed US stock futures and bond prices following the release of the statement. The dollar softened initially somewhat against the Euro and Japanese yen, but is now slightly stronger: Euro/USD stands at 1.3095 and USD/JPY has again crept above the 100 level trading at 100,11 yen a dollar. Oil prices are keeping the level seen in July. NYMEX, New York crude, stands at USD 106,33 and Brent at 108,44 a barrel. Gold is fifteen dollar down at USD 1276 an ounce.
During the questions/answering session in Congress, Bernanke was praised by Republicans and Democrats alike for his tenure as Fred Chairman. Bernanke is most likely going to resign when his term expires on January 31st. Many Republicans have privately blamed Bernanke for his aggressive monetary easing which they claim helped President Obama’s re-election. Some Republicans repeated these complaints as they warmly acknowledged his services.
Bernanke’s pledge to keep monetary easing for the foreseeable future, supported global market sentiments. Asian shares fell, however, on Thursday due to concerns over available financing for property developers in China. China introduced some weeks ago stricter control with the explosive “shadow banking” system, and investors fear the impact of these controls. Indexes fell all over Asia with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei which added 0,4 %. The dollar was steady against a basket of six currencies, DXY.
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2013/07/17
Weak dollar ahead Bernanke’s speech
The dollar DXY traded at three-week low, down 07 % against a basket of six major currencies on Tuesday on expectations that that the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED), Ben Bernanke, later today will reiterate FED’s lose monetary policies. Bernanke is due to testify to Congress over the next two days. The dollar has over the last 24 hours lost ground both to Euro and Japanese yen. Euro/USD trades at 1.3141 and USD/JPY at 99,37.
Asian stocks gained in morning trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Sheng index added 0,8 % and Seoul shares in South Korea were up 0,9 %. All the American indexes slightly yesterday after continuous record breaking sessions. Intel was the winner while Coca Cola, Walt Disney and Boeing gave up around 1,5 %. Precious metals have stabilized. Gold was trading at USD 1291. Silver stays steady at USD 20 an ounce. There are small changes in commodities and oil. Brent crude trades at USD 108 a barrel.
Bernanke’s comments last week concentrated on the need to keep a highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future. That wrong footed investors who had bet on tapering in FED’s bond buying program as soon as September. That led to a sharp fall in the dollar. Investors are prior to today’s session betting on that Bernanke might avoid being to “hawkish” not to talk down stocks.
Bernanke would once again be faced with a delicate balancing act between assuring enduring central bank support for the US economy with a reminder that the ultra-easy policies cannot last forever. Bernanke set off a brief global sell-off when he outlined plans to reduce the bond-buying. This was balanced with a strong reiteration that the interest rates would be kept at the present low level. More firm indications as to when FED would start tapering, will strengthen the dollar and weakened global stock markets.
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Asian stocks gained in morning trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Sheng index added 0,8 % and Seoul shares in South Korea were up 0,9 %. All the American indexes slightly yesterday after continuous record breaking sessions. Intel was the winner while Coca Cola, Walt Disney and Boeing gave up around 1,5 %. Precious metals have stabilized. Gold was trading at USD 1291. Silver stays steady at USD 20 an ounce. There are small changes in commodities and oil. Brent crude trades at USD 108 a barrel.
Bernanke’s comments last week concentrated on the need to keep a highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future. That wrong footed investors who had bet on tapering in FED’s bond buying program as soon as September. That led to a sharp fall in the dollar. Investors are prior to today’s session betting on that Bernanke might avoid being to “hawkish” not to talk down stocks.
Bernanke would once again be faced with a delicate balancing act between assuring enduring central bank support for the US economy with a reminder that the ultra-easy policies cannot last forever. Bernanke set off a brief global sell-off when he outlined plans to reduce the bond-buying. This was balanced with a strong reiteration that the interest rates would be kept at the present low level. More firm indications as to when FED would start tapering, will strengthen the dollar and weakened global stock markets.
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2013/07/16
Weaker US-retail prolong tapering
Weaker than expected US retail forecasts presented yesterday, backed the view that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will hold off reducing its bond buying stimulus anytime soon. This had the Asian Pacific MSCI-index to inch another 0,1 %. DXY, the US dollar index measured against a basket of six major currencies edged lower. Euro/USD is steady at 1.3071while the Japanese Yen lost ground against the green back at 99,77 yen a dollar. The Australian dollar was slightly stronger as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its monetary policies unchanged.
F ED Chairman Ben Bernanke is Wednesday going to present its twice-yearly monetary policy report to Congress giving new clues to FEDs thinking on when to start tapering. US stocks were slightly up on Monday with Boeing, up 3,72 % as the winner. Citigroup presented strong quarterly results and the S&P to end higher for the eighth straight day which is the longest streak since mid-January. US retail sales data increased 0,4 %, half the rise economist had forecasted.
FED has focused on labour market improvements to decide when to start tapering monetary easing, but weakness in the consumer sector could indicate broader economic problems and lower US growth expectations. There is no big changes in the currencies picture, but the yen can face new pressure as the week progresses. Forthcoming elections to the upper Japanese chamber might result in a big victory for Shinzo Abe’s party and give new momentum for aggressive monetary easing.
The Euro keeps steady, but a slide in German exports, political wrangling over austerity measures in Portugal and opposition leaders in Spain asking for Primes Minister Mariano Rajoy to step down after a financial scandal in his party, create fresh concern as to the further direction of the common currency. Commodities were mixed after the presentation of China’s GDP yesterday. Both New York crude, NYMEX, and Brent are keeping up. Gold I slightly lower at USD 1080 an ounce.
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F ED Chairman Ben Bernanke is Wednesday going to present its twice-yearly monetary policy report to Congress giving new clues to FEDs thinking on when to start tapering. US stocks were slightly up on Monday with Boeing, up 3,72 % as the winner. Citigroup presented strong quarterly results and the S&P to end higher for the eighth straight day which is the longest streak since mid-January. US retail sales data increased 0,4 %, half the rise economist had forecasted.
FED has focused on labour market improvements to decide when to start tapering monetary easing, but weakness in the consumer sector could indicate broader economic problems and lower US growth expectations. There is no big changes in the currencies picture, but the yen can face new pressure as the week progresses. Forthcoming elections to the upper Japanese chamber might result in a big victory for Shinzo Abe’s party and give new momentum for aggressive monetary easing.
The Euro keeps steady, but a slide in German exports, political wrangling over austerity measures in Portugal and opposition leaders in Spain asking for Primes Minister Mariano Rajoy to step down after a financial scandal in his party, create fresh concern as to the further direction of the common currency. Commodities were mixed after the presentation of China’s GDP yesterday. Both New York crude, NYMEX, and Brent are keeping up. Gold I slightly lower at USD 1080 an ounce.
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2013/07/15
Better Chinese data bounce Asian stocks
Better than feared Chinese second-quarter economic growth erased early losses in Asia, and boosted the Australian dollar at the beginning of a new trading week. China’s GDP cooled to 7,5 % from 7,7 % in the same quarter last year. The data were, however, better than expected and investors heaved a sigh of relief. The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index rose 0,4 % after starting the week in negative territory. Other Asian markets were up from 0,3 – 0,9 %. Shanhai added 0,91 %.
Weaker Chinese export/import figures presented last week had global markets to shiver with good reason. The key behind the subdued growth and slight GDP turndown is weak exports. But domestic demand has according to analysts kept up quite well through the second quarter. There are a downward global risk weighing in on the Chinese markets along with newly imposed stricter credit controls. The downward risks in Chinese economy have, however, not worsened materially which the latest data confirm.
Despite the reversal Asia underperformed compared with US their stock peers which hit record closing highs for a second session on Friday, sparked by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to keep monetary easing for some time. The continuation of a loose US monetary policy weighed significantly on the USD. The DXY index where dollar is weighed against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1,7 % last week.
The weaker dollar helped the Euro recover from last week’s low on 1.2755. It jumped to 1.3208 and trades at 1.3072. The Chinese data helped the long declining Australian dollar to reach 91.10 after falling below 90 US cents on Friday. Commodities with copper raised 0,4 %. Oil prices are steady with Brent crude trading close to USD 109 a barrel. Precious metals continue the positive trend from last week with gold at USD 1291 and silver USD 20.10 an ounce.
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Weaker Chinese export/import figures presented last week had global markets to shiver with good reason. The key behind the subdued growth and slight GDP turndown is weak exports. But domestic demand has according to analysts kept up quite well through the second quarter. There are a downward global risk weighing in on the Chinese markets along with newly imposed stricter credit controls. The downward risks in Chinese economy have, however, not worsened materially which the latest data confirm.
Despite the reversal Asia underperformed compared with US their stock peers which hit record closing highs for a second session on Friday, sparked by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pledge to keep monetary easing for some time. The continuation of a loose US monetary policy weighed significantly on the USD. The DXY index where dollar is weighed against a basket of six major currencies, fell 1,7 % last week.
The weaker dollar helped the Euro recover from last week’s low on 1.2755. It jumped to 1.3208 and trades at 1.3072. The Chinese data helped the long declining Australian dollar to reach 91.10 after falling below 90 US cents on Friday. Commodities with copper raised 0,4 %. Oil prices are steady with Brent crude trading close to USD 109 a barrel. Precious metals continue the positive trend from last week with gold at USD 1291 and silver USD 20.10 an ounce.
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2013/07/12
Record rush on Wall Street
Dow Jones and S&P jumped to all time high and the technology heavy Nasdaq index reached the highest level since 2000, in the aftermath of the publishing of US Federal Reserve (FED) minutes and new statements by Chairman Ben Bernanke in Boston yesterday. EURO/USD which fall to 1.3208 Thursday morning recovered during the day, but dipped back to 1.31 following Bernanke’s strong commitment to keep interest rates at the present low level. It trades at present at 1.3081.
Bernanke’s reiterated that the US economy is volatile. The 7,6 % unemployment is far from FED’s 6,5 % target for the labour market. The jobless claim numbers for last week published yesterday were higher than previous week and confirm Bernanke’s soberness. The markets interpret his comments as a confirmation that a September tapering of monetary easing is not in the cards. As several FED-members stressed in the June Minutes, the bond buying program will continue into 2014. This boosts stock markets and led to termination in stock short positions yesterday.
In Asia the Asian Pacific MSCI-index lost steam after three winning sessions ending up only 0,2 % as markets brace for Chinese GDP data early next week. China’s week foreign trade data for June provide a pessimistic edge to the second quarter estimates which probably will show that GDP has slowed further. The government’s official forecast on 7,5 % economic growth set for 2013 might prove to be, too, optimistic.
After a 24 hours heavy selloff in the dollar as investors cut bullish positions on Bernanke’s pledge, currency markets are steadier into the last trading day of the week. The dollar index, DXY, experienced its steepest fall in four years. Some analysts see the fall in the dollar as a buying opportunity on expectations of a FED autumn tapering on the presumption of US GDP growth in third and fourth quarters. Oil lost momentum when traders took profit following a three week rally that lifted prices to 15 month-high. US crude, NYMEX, eased back to USD 105 a barrel reaching 107,45.
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Bernanke’s reiterated that the US economy is volatile. The 7,6 % unemployment is far from FED’s 6,5 % target for the labour market. The jobless claim numbers for last week published yesterday were higher than previous week and confirm Bernanke’s soberness. The markets interpret his comments as a confirmation that a September tapering of monetary easing is not in the cards. As several FED-members stressed in the June Minutes, the bond buying program will continue into 2014. This boosts stock markets and led to termination in stock short positions yesterday.
In Asia the Asian Pacific MSCI-index lost steam after three winning sessions ending up only 0,2 % as markets brace for Chinese GDP data early next week. China’s week foreign trade data for June provide a pessimistic edge to the second quarter estimates which probably will show that GDP has slowed further. The government’s official forecast on 7,5 % economic growth set for 2013 might prove to be, too, optimistic.
After a 24 hours heavy selloff in the dollar as investors cut bullish positions on Bernanke’s pledge, currency markets are steadier into the last trading day of the week. The dollar index, DXY, experienced its steepest fall in four years. Some analysts see the fall in the dollar as a buying opportunity on expectations of a FED autumn tapering on the presumption of US GDP growth in third and fourth quarters. Oil lost momentum when traders took profit following a three week rally that lifted prices to 15 month-high. US crude, NYMEX, eased back to USD 105 a barrel reaching 107,45.
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2013/07/11
USD suffers heavy losses
Currency markets turned completly upside down over the last twelve hours with the dollar losing heavily towards all major currencies. Euro/USD has gained close to 300 points over the last 24 hours and trades at 1.3136. Japanese yen (JPY) and British Pound Sterling have posted similar gains against the green back. USD/JPY brushed back through the 100 level and trades at 98,54. GBP/USD which traded at the 1,47 level in the beginning of the week, stands at 1.5157. The weaker dollar has commodities, oil and precious metals to skyrocket.
Two factors have impacted the fall in the dollar. After publishing of US Federal Reserve (FED) minutes for June, Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated the low interest rates policies which impacted the dollar; FED is I no rush to raise interest rates. The minutes showed disagreements among members when the bond buying program should terminate. A majority wished to pare down bond purchases in 2013 while other members stressed asset purchasing would be needed also in 2014.
What really triggered the fall in the dollar was a statement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising its assessment of the economy, but cutting the growth and inflation outlooks. The forecast for Japanese inflation in 2014 was put at 0,6 instead of 0,7 percent. Earlier this week the Euro hit a three-month low against the greenback on diverging monetary policy expectations between central banks. The conditions of the US economy would therefore be decisive for the currency pair. Statistics on retail sales and consumer prices due later in the week are going to be closely watched.
The long term perspective on the Euro is bearish, but it seems likely that EURO/USD might correct higher in the short run. The DXY index which measures the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies stumbled from 84,027 to 82,693; even the embattled Australian dollar gaining ground. Gold jumped to USD 1286 up 2,2 %. Silver is up 3 %. NYMEX, new York crude stands at record USD 106 a barrel and Brent trades at USD 108,28.
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Two factors have impacted the fall in the dollar. After publishing of US Federal Reserve (FED) minutes for June, Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated the low interest rates policies which impacted the dollar; FED is I no rush to raise interest rates. The minutes showed disagreements among members when the bond buying program should terminate. A majority wished to pare down bond purchases in 2013 while other members stressed asset purchasing would be needed also in 2014.
What really triggered the fall in the dollar was a statement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising its assessment of the economy, but cutting the growth and inflation outlooks. The forecast for Japanese inflation in 2014 was put at 0,6 instead of 0,7 percent. Earlier this week the Euro hit a three-month low against the greenback on diverging monetary policy expectations between central banks. The conditions of the US economy would therefore be decisive for the currency pair. Statistics on retail sales and consumer prices due later in the week are going to be closely watched.
The long term perspective on the Euro is bearish, but it seems likely that EURO/USD might correct higher in the short run. The DXY index which measures the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies stumbled from 84,027 to 82,693; even the embattled Australian dollar gaining ground. Gold jumped to USD 1286 up 2,2 %. Silver is up 3 %. NYMEX, new York crude stands at record USD 106 a barrel and Brent trades at USD 108,28.
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2013/07/10
China Faces “Grim” Trade Outlook
Both import and export figures in the second-largest economy in the world fell in June. Exports fell 3.1% from the previous year, while imports dropped 0.7%. Trade figures were expected to rise. The fall in import and export follow a government crackdown on the use of fake invoicing that had exaggerated exports earlier this year. The figures raise fresh concerns about the slowdown in China and global demand. A spokesman for the Chinese customs authority stressed that China faces stern challenges and “exports in the third quarter look grim”.
The customs agency said exporters are losing confidence faced with weak overseas demand, rising labor costs and a strong Yuan currency. The Australian Dollar fell immediately in the trade figures, reflecting worries about Chinese demand for Australian commodities, such as iron and coal. In spite of the weaker figures, China had a trade surplus of USD 27.1 billion in June, in line with the USD 27.0 billion forecast. Economic growth in China in 2013 is still expected to be 7.5 %.
The grim trading figures created expectations that the Chinese Central Bank might ease policy to boost growth. These expectations made Chinese shares rise sharply. The major Chinese index gained 2.2 % on the easing talk. The MSCI-index for Asia Pacific also gained 0.7% boosted as well by Wall Streets optimism for US company earnings. Copper prices added 0.5 % and both Brent crude and the New York NYMEX, trade higher on USD 108 and 104 a barrel respectively.
Concerns over China pulled the Dollar DXY down from a three-year high against a basket of major currencies. The Dollar fell 0.6% to 100.52 Yen. The stronger Yen impacted the Nikkei index which fell 0.4 %. Investors are betting on further Dollar gains as the US Federal Reserve (FED) prepares to scale back on its USD 85 billion a month stimulus program. The minutes from FED’s June meeting will be published later today, accompanied by a statement from Chairman Ben Bernanke which is expected to give the Dollar a further boost.
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The customs agency said exporters are losing confidence faced with weak overseas demand, rising labor costs and a strong Yuan currency. The Australian Dollar fell immediately in the trade figures, reflecting worries about Chinese demand for Australian commodities, such as iron and coal. In spite of the weaker figures, China had a trade surplus of USD 27.1 billion in June, in line with the USD 27.0 billion forecast. Economic growth in China in 2013 is still expected to be 7.5 %.
The grim trading figures created expectations that the Chinese Central Bank might ease policy to boost growth. These expectations made Chinese shares rise sharply. The major Chinese index gained 2.2 % on the easing talk. The MSCI-index for Asia Pacific also gained 0.7% boosted as well by Wall Streets optimism for US company earnings. Copper prices added 0.5 % and both Brent crude and the New York NYMEX, trade higher on USD 108 and 104 a barrel respectively.
Concerns over China pulled the Dollar DXY down from a three-year high against a basket of major currencies. The Dollar fell 0.6% to 100.52 Yen. The stronger Yen impacted the Nikkei index which fell 0.4 %. Investors are betting on further Dollar gains as the US Federal Reserve (FED) prepares to scale back on its USD 85 billion a month stimulus program. The minutes from FED’s June meeting will be published later today, accompanied by a statement from Chairman Ben Bernanke which is expected to give the Dollar a further boost.
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2013/07/09
USD Corrects Down Reaching 3-yr High
US Dollar corrected down 0.3 % after the DXY: a basket of major currencies weighed against USD, reached a 3-year high yesterday. EUR/USD traded at 1.2876 after dipping close to 1.28. USD lost to JPY with 100.93 Japanese Yen paid for a Dollar. Oil prices, which jumped, after new clashes over the weekend between supporters of President Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood and the military forces, left 17 dead in Cairo's streets. Brent lost 29 cents to USD 107.43 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, stood at 103.14. Gold gained 20 Dollars to 1228 on a weaker Dollar.
Alcoa, the alloy giant, was, as always, the first company to present quarterly results. The report was slightly better than analysts expected. Global stock markets were strong on Monday with European and US indexes posting gains. Asia started the week in red Monday morning after credit worries in China. Nikkei was the only Asian exchange gaining ground on a weaker Yen boosting exports. Also on Monday a US advisory company recommended shareholders to accept Michael Dell’s USD 24.4 Billion buyout offer.
In Brussels, Greece secured a Euro 8.7 Billion lifeline. The Samara's government came under heavy pressure before yesterday’s Minister of Finance meeting. The new bailout tranche was given on the condition that Greece deliver on its promise to cut 12 500 jobs in the public sector and continue vigorous austerity efforts. Bailout funds might be withheld if these conditions are not met.
In a situation where the US Federal Reserve (FED) due to slightly better data, probably might start tapering monetary easing already in September, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) have stated willingness to go in the opposite direction and follow FED’s earlier example to ease monetary policies and actively use the printing press. This has put the British pound (GBP) under strong pressure. USD/GBP has fallen below 1.50 trading at 1.4955, the lowest level seen in a long time.
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Alcoa, the alloy giant, was, as always, the first company to present quarterly results. The report was slightly better than analysts expected. Global stock markets were strong on Monday with European and US indexes posting gains. Asia started the week in red Monday morning after credit worries in China. Nikkei was the only Asian exchange gaining ground on a weaker Yen boosting exports. Also on Monday a US advisory company recommended shareholders to accept Michael Dell’s USD 24.4 Billion buyout offer.
In Brussels, Greece secured a Euro 8.7 Billion lifeline. The Samara's government came under heavy pressure before yesterday’s Minister of Finance meeting. The new bailout tranche was given on the condition that Greece deliver on its promise to cut 12 500 jobs in the public sector and continue vigorous austerity efforts. Bailout funds might be withheld if these conditions are not met.
In a situation where the US Federal Reserve (FED) due to slightly better data, probably might start tapering monetary easing already in September, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) have stated willingness to go in the opposite direction and follow FED’s earlier example to ease monetary policies and actively use the printing press. This has put the British pound (GBP) under strong pressure. USD/GBP has fallen below 1.50 trading at 1.4955, the lowest level seen in a long time.
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2013/07/08
Stronger labor data strengthens USD
US stocks jumped one percent on Friday, while the dollar rallied and interest rate on debt treasury bills fell as the US labor market presented stronger than expected data, showing that the US economy is on a more solid footing. The data will be a strong argument for the Federal Reserve (FED) to start tapering the bond buying program already in September. Non-farm payrolls increased with 196 000 in June. Unemployment stays at 7,6 %. FEDs official target for a healthy unemployment bill stays at 7,6 %.
The dollar index, DXY, against a basket of major currencies is strongly up. Euro/USD traded Friday on 1.2831, the lowest level seen in months. The trend towards a weaker Euro is most likely to continue this week with USD/JPY moving towards an earlier peak on 103 yen against the dollar. Commodities listed in USD are falling with the strength of the dollar. Precious metals are again hard hit with Gold falling 2,1 %.
EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to decide on releasing a third bailout and rescue package on 8,1 billion Euro for Greece. The troika of lenders; The European Central Bank (ECB), EU-commission and International Monetary Fund, IMF, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the slow implementation of the 12 500 reduction of civil servants. The troika has been under fire for the austerity measure undertaken against Greece. An IMF representative admitted lately that their policies had aggravated the problems in Greek economy.
The EU Commission has flatly rejected these claims and the Finance commissioner for EU, Olli Rehn, has before the meeting today reiterated that Greece has to intensify its reform commitment. The Samaras three party government consisting of the EK right party, social democratic PASOK and left of center party, has steadily lost authority threatening Greece with new elections and an unpredictable outcome most likely strengthening the socialist left and the far right Golden Dawn party. Both parties reject continued austerity measures.
The dollar index, DXY, against a basket of major currencies is strongly up. Euro/USD traded Friday on 1.2831, the lowest level seen in months. The trend towards a weaker Euro is most likely to continue this week with USD/JPY moving towards an earlier peak on 103 yen against the dollar. Commodities listed in USD are falling with the strength of the dollar. Precious metals are again hard hit with Gold falling 2,1 %.
EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to decide on releasing a third bailout and rescue package on 8,1 billion Euro for Greece. The troika of lenders; The European Central Bank (ECB), EU-commission and International Monetary Fund, IMF, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the slow implementation of the 12 500 reduction of civil servants. The troika has been under fire for the austerity measure undertaken against Greece. An IMF representative admitted lately that their policies had aggravated the problems in Greek economy.
The EU Commission has flatly rejected these claims and the Finance commissioner for EU, Olli Rehn, has before the meeting today reiterated that Greece has to intensify its reform commitment. The Samaras three party government consisting of the EK right party, social democratic PASOK and left of center party, has steadily lost authority threatening Greece with new elections and an unpredictable outcome most likely strengthening the socialist left and the far right Golden Dawn party. Both parties reject continued austerity measures.
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2013/07/05
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Draghi’s comments boosted stock indexes to record growth
Yesterday we could see rapid growth on world markets after the meeting of European Central Bank, Bank of England and speech of Mr. Draghi. Increase in main world stock indexes had more emotional character rather than fundamental. In general, the head of European Central Bank once again calmed investors with verbal interventions and no any steps were undertaken. Mr. Draghi once again confirmed preservation of stimulating policy of European Central Bank, and let know that interest rates are going to be kept on a low levels during a long time. In comparison, more or less head of European Central Bank gives us the same comments and information, which we consequently hear from Mr. Bernanke.
Despite the fact that trading session in the USA has been closed, the leading stock exchanges finished the trading session on Thursday in the positive territory. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 grew by 2,9%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 added 3,08%, the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX rose by 2,11%.
As to the currency market, then we could see steep falls in many currencies in relation to American dollar. EUR/USD from the level of 1.3008 dropped down to a minimum on 1.2882, today morning - pair is traded on a level of 1.2897.
Great British Pound was the first one to start correction in relation to dollar, having vigorously reacted to hints of Bank of England. The monetary policy, as expected, remained the same, however Mark Carney didn't want to waste time and already made changes in tactics of communication with the market. If earlier the accompanying statement in case of an invariable course wasn't published, now decisions and actions of the bank will be more transparent. Within comments it was noted that despite positive signs of economic recovery, in comparison to historical measures – it still remains to be weak. This means that most probable level of an interest rate will not be defined by the current signals. These words right away sent pair GBP /USD down: from level of opening at 1,5277 to a minimum of 1,5054, having finished the trading session only 15 points higher. This morning pound continues to bargain next to the level of 1.5000.
Today investors are going to wait for an unemployment figures from the United States, which will have an influence on the markets and will help to decide on further direction of the markets.
Despite the fact that trading session in the USA has been closed, the leading stock exchanges finished the trading session on Thursday in the positive territory. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 grew by 2,9%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 added 3,08%, the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX rose by 2,11%.
As to the currency market, then we could see steep falls in many currencies in relation to American dollar. EUR/USD from the level of 1.3008 dropped down to a minimum on 1.2882, today morning - pair is traded on a level of 1.2897.
Great British Pound was the first one to start correction in relation to dollar, having vigorously reacted to hints of Bank of England. The monetary policy, as expected, remained the same, however Mark Carney didn't want to waste time and already made changes in tactics of communication with the market. If earlier the accompanying statement in case of an invariable course wasn't published, now decisions and actions of the bank will be more transparent. Within comments it was noted that despite positive signs of economic recovery, in comparison to historical measures – it still remains to be weak. This means that most probable level of an interest rate will not be defined by the current signals. These words right away sent pair GBP /USD down: from level of opening at 1,5277 to a minimum of 1,5054, having finished the trading session only 15 points higher. This morning pound continues to bargain next to the level of 1.5000.
Today investors are going to wait for an unemployment figures from the United States, which will have an influence on the markets and will help to decide on further direction of the markets.
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2013/07/04
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Oil-prices skyrocket on turmoil in Egypt
Oil prices moved strongly up yesterday on continued turmoil in the Middle East and threat of disruptions in the transportation of oil from the region. NYMEX, Ney York crude, is up 4 %, trading at USD 101 a barrel. Brent crude raised to USD 105,75 after the Egyptian military ousted the elected president Mohammed Morsi who rejected to give in to the presented ultimatum to withdraw. The military has taken over power and promised to prepare for new presidential elections.
The military coup came after thorough demonstrations and clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi. President Morsi’s opponents welcomed the military intervention. The unrest in Egypt threatens the stability in the whole Middle East; Egypt being the most populous state in the region with borders also to Israel. Gold and silver which have fallen steeply over the last months also gained on the development as did Japanese yen. USD/JPY trades at 99,93. Euro/USD is 1.3003.
Attention in the US was focused on the jobless claims which came in 5000 lower than last week. Unemployment data for June are slightly better than in May falling to 7,5 %. This is still far from the 6,5 % the US Federal Reserve (FED) has set as a target for ending quantitative easing. Presented numbers on trade and services were disappointing and do not point to a quick turnaround in the American economy.
Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended up after a short and volatile session before closing for 4th of July independence celebrations. Dow was 12 points short of breaking the 15 000 level. European markets were weak after the last turmoil in Portugal where several ministers including the influential Minister of Foreign Affair, have threatened to leave the government. The political crisis has revived fears of a Portugese debt crisis. In Greece there are questions whether the Samaras-government would be able to live up to the obligations set by the troika which put pressure on European equity markets and the Euro.
.
The military coup came after thorough demonstrations and clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi. President Morsi’s opponents welcomed the military intervention. The unrest in Egypt threatens the stability in the whole Middle East; Egypt being the most populous state in the region with borders also to Israel. Gold and silver which have fallen steeply over the last months also gained on the development as did Japanese yen. USD/JPY trades at 99,93. Euro/USD is 1.3003.
Attention in the US was focused on the jobless claims which came in 5000 lower than last week. Unemployment data for June are slightly better than in May falling to 7,5 %. This is still far from the 6,5 % the US Federal Reserve (FED) has set as a target for ending quantitative easing. Presented numbers on trade and services were disappointing and do not point to a quick turnaround in the American economy.
Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended up after a short and volatile session before closing for 4th of July independence celebrations. Dow was 12 points short of breaking the 15 000 level. European markets were weak after the last turmoil in Portugal where several ministers including the influential Minister of Foreign Affair, have threatened to leave the government. The political crisis has revived fears of a Portugese debt crisis. In Greece there are questions whether the Samaras-government would be able to live up to the obligations set by the troika which put pressure on European equity markets and the Euro.
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2013/07/03
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US-Stocks Dip In Volatile Session
Stocks in the US dipped Tuesday afternoon on weak trade volumes. The session started in positive territory, with technology and industrial shares gaining after one of the big car manufactures, Ford, presented good sales numbers pointing towards the economic turnaround, witnessed as well by data earlier in the week. In spite of strong car sales in June, markets turned down. Dow ended down well below the 15 00 mark. Continued unrest in Egypt with a military ultimatum to president Mursi, led oil prices higher and boosted the energy sector.
The low volumes in the equity market were partly due to the forthcoming US Independence day on Thursday.The markets are also closed for trading the second half of Wednesday. Jobless claims are going to be presented on Friday. The number of jobless might be a new important indicator on when the Federal Reserve (FED) is going to start tapering and set a final date for terminating its economic stimulus and ending its bond buying program. Better jobless claims will be seen as an improvement of the US economy, which might lead to an early termination of economic stimulus.
The US Dollar raised to its highest level against the Japanese Yen since the recent volatility seen in the stock and currency markets, which started with FED’s indication of setting a date for terminating monetary easing two weeks ago. USD/JPY jumped again over the 100 Yen a Dollar mark and reached 100,72. The Dollar index, DXY, where the Dollar is weighed against a basket of currencies, reached the highest level seen in four weeks. The weaker Japanese Yen caused the Nikkei to jump 1.7 %.
EUR/USD fell 0.7 % at 1.2962, nearly 100 points down from Monday’s high. Copper and other commodity prices were up. Brent crude rose for the third day in a row reaching above USD 104 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, traded close to 100 a barrel. Gold prices, which have jumped over the last two days, fell back to 1242, 10 Dollar down from Monday’s high. The other important precious metal, Silver, fell back as well. Portuguese bonds sank to their lowest level in weeks, when three ministers left the government in protest against the austerity measures.
The low volumes in the equity market were partly due to the forthcoming US Independence day on Thursday.The markets are also closed for trading the second half of Wednesday. Jobless claims are going to be presented on Friday. The number of jobless might be a new important indicator on when the Federal Reserve (FED) is going to start tapering and set a final date for terminating its economic stimulus and ending its bond buying program. Better jobless claims will be seen as an improvement of the US economy, which might lead to an early termination of economic stimulus.
The US Dollar raised to its highest level against the Japanese Yen since the recent volatility seen in the stock and currency markets, which started with FED’s indication of setting a date for terminating monetary easing two weeks ago. USD/JPY jumped again over the 100 Yen a Dollar mark and reached 100,72. The Dollar index, DXY, where the Dollar is weighed against a basket of currencies, reached the highest level seen in four weeks. The weaker Japanese Yen caused the Nikkei to jump 1.7 %.
EUR/USD fell 0.7 % at 1.2962, nearly 100 points down from Monday’s high. Copper and other commodity prices were up. Brent crude rose for the third day in a row reaching above USD 104 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, traded close to 100 a barrel. Gold prices, which have jumped over the last two days, fell back to 1242, 10 Dollar down from Monday’s high. The other important precious metal, Silver, fell back as well. Portuguese bonds sank to their lowest level in weeks, when three ministers left the government in protest against the austerity measures.
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2013/07/02
EUR/USD And Gold Gain On Manufacturing
Stronger than expected manufacturing data from Europe and Japan yesterday lifted the EUR/USD to 1.3052 up from last week’s low of 1.2983. DXY, the USD index against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2 % while the USD/JPY again sniffed on 100 Yen/Dollar level. For the first time in months there was positive manufacturing data from the Euro zone and England. This created a better market sentiment with increased appetite for risk. Stock exchanges in Europe and the US ended higher.
The Dow Jones traded close to 15 000 at 14 974 up 0.5 %. The technology heavy Nasdaq added 0.85 %. After falling as low as USD 1180 an ounce Friday, gold gained both yesterday and is up 2.1 % today at 1250. Other commodities such as copper, also recovered. Oil prices got a welcomed boost by the stronger manufacturing. New York crude, NYMEX, jumped above USD 98 a barrel and Brent crude reached USD 103 after trading close to 100 at the end of last week.
The increased gold prices represent the most interesting development during this week.Triggered by the comments from the Federal Reserve, FED, gold started its slide in earnest in April when FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke, set out a framework for the first time for the US central bank to exit its “quantitative easing”. Gold peaked at USD 1250 yesterday. The open question now is whether USD 1180 represents a bottom, and this week’s turn around is a technical correction after the 29.5 % tumble since the 1st of January. Investors shift away from Gold has been dramatic. Fund managers have been selling one fifth of their Gold holding, and the interest for Gold futures and options are the weakest since 2005. Some analysts see investor’s positioning so extreme that Gold, in the short term, is unlikely to fall much lower. A sidelong trade is expected. Impacting Gold negatively is weak Asian interest presently. Asians have been the strongest supporters with Gold declining, but this time there is no appetite for buying. The concentration has instead been on the high cost of Gold producing.
The Dow Jones traded close to 15 000 at 14 974 up 0.5 %. The technology heavy Nasdaq added 0.85 %. After falling as low as USD 1180 an ounce Friday, gold gained both yesterday and is up 2.1 % today at 1250. Other commodities such as copper, also recovered. Oil prices got a welcomed boost by the stronger manufacturing. New York crude, NYMEX, jumped above USD 98 a barrel and Brent crude reached USD 103 after trading close to 100 at the end of last week.
The increased gold prices represent the most interesting development during this week.Triggered by the comments from the Federal Reserve, FED, gold started its slide in earnest in April when FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke, set out a framework for the first time for the US central bank to exit its “quantitative easing”. Gold peaked at USD 1250 yesterday. The open question now is whether USD 1180 represents a bottom, and this week’s turn around is a technical correction after the 29.5 % tumble since the 1st of January. Investors shift away from Gold has been dramatic. Fund managers have been selling one fifth of their Gold holding, and the interest for Gold futures and options are the weakest since 2005. Some analysts see investor’s positioning so extreme that Gold, in the short term, is unlikely to fall much lower. A sidelong trade is expected. Impacting Gold negatively is weak Asian interest presently. Asians have been the strongest supporters with Gold declining, but this time there is no appetite for buying. The concentration has instead been on the high cost of Gold producing.
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2013/07/01
New Volatility Expects Markets
The fears for an early termination of Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus might be gone for now after the US down revision of growth, and disappointing data on jobless claims at the end of last week. This does not help global markets which are entering July, nervous for new volatility. Hopefully the panic selling of equities witnessed in June has come to an end, but a poll demonstrates that managers have taken substantial capital out of their funds, sitting on the fence with cash waiting for a new development.
The US stock markets ended in red on Friday with Dow Jones Industrial again dipping below the critical 15 000 benchmark. Global stock markets lost ground in June giving away 1.3 % of the gains in 2013, triggered mainly by several central banks economic stimulus. Hardest hit are the markets in Asia. Japan’s “Abenomics” turned for a short while the Japanese Nikkei seemed to be a success story. The Nikkei, however, suffered serious losses with the strengthening of the YEN on FED’s indication for a possible deadline for their bond buying program.
It has been a lackluster month for commodities and precious metals. Gold, which for the last fifteen years has been regarded as a strong hedge, has fallen 23% only the last quarter. It recovered nicely on Friday, but this “recovery” might rather be seen as a technical correction after the earlier steep falls. Commodities with copper was also up 1% last week after losing 10% the last quarter. Oil prices have been keeping relatively steady. Brent has been able to stay above the critical USD 100 a barrel.
The Dollar gained ground against both the Yen and the Euro on Friday. EUR/USD dipped again below 1.30 after breaking through the strong technical resistance represented by the 200 days moving average on 1.3062 earlier in the week. The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, suggested that it might be necessary to undertake stronger ECB-stimulus to get the Euro zone out of the deep recession as European finance ministers are becoming increasingly worried of the social and economic consequences of an unemployment figure above 25 % in many member countries
The unemployment among youth is reaching alarming proportions and stands above 50% in most southern European countries. On Friday, Croatia became the last country to join the EU, but the prospects of privatizations leading to more unemployment do not create great enthusiasm. If the EU based on recession realities, have to take talk on stimulus seriously, that shall immediately have a negative effect on the strength of the Euro. Volatility seems therefore to be the order of the day in July.
The US stock markets ended in red on Friday with Dow Jones Industrial again dipping below the critical 15 000 benchmark. Global stock markets lost ground in June giving away 1.3 % of the gains in 2013, triggered mainly by several central banks economic stimulus. Hardest hit are the markets in Asia. Japan’s “Abenomics” turned for a short while the Japanese Nikkei seemed to be a success story. The Nikkei, however, suffered serious losses with the strengthening of the YEN on FED’s indication for a possible deadline for their bond buying program.
It has been a lackluster month for commodities and precious metals. Gold, which for the last fifteen years has been regarded as a strong hedge, has fallen 23% only the last quarter. It recovered nicely on Friday, but this “recovery” might rather be seen as a technical correction after the earlier steep falls. Commodities with copper was also up 1% last week after losing 10% the last quarter. Oil prices have been keeping relatively steady. Brent has been able to stay above the critical USD 100 a barrel.
The Dollar gained ground against both the Yen and the Euro on Friday. EUR/USD dipped again below 1.30 after breaking through the strong technical resistance represented by the 200 days moving average on 1.3062 earlier in the week. The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, suggested that it might be necessary to undertake stronger ECB-stimulus to get the Euro zone out of the deep recession as European finance ministers are becoming increasingly worried of the social and economic consequences of an unemployment figure above 25 % in many member countries
The unemployment among youth is reaching alarming proportions and stands above 50% in most southern European countries. On Friday, Croatia became the last country to join the EU, but the prospects of privatizations leading to more unemployment do not create great enthusiasm. If the EU based on recession realities, have to take talk on stimulus seriously, that shall immediately have a negative effect on the strength of the Euro. Volatility seems therefore to be the order of the day in July.
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