Yesterday the trading session in Europe has been rather quiet with just a small increase of the main indexes. The statistics which have been published yesterday had moderately positive character. So, unemployment in Germany in November appeared at the level of expectations and didn't change in comparison with the last month – 6,9%%. The index of business climate in Eurozone considerably surpassed forecast and made 0,18 points instead of expected 0,03 points. The consumer price index in Germany in November also appeared to be slightly higher than expectations that has to weaken deflationary fears. As the result, index of London stock exchange FTSE 100 grew by 0,08%%, an index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 - for 0,22%% and an index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX – 0,39%%.
Asian indexes did not show uniform dynamics this morning. Unemployment in Japan for October appeared above expectations of the market and made 4%%, the consumer price index coincided with forecast and made 0,9%%. As a result Japanese Nikkei decreased by 0,41%%, the Korean KOSPI – for 0,24%%. Shanghai Composite grew for 0,07%%, Hang Seng – for 0,2%%.
Participants of the world market, independently from the stock market they are trading in, with close attention now follow the American stock market. Everybody is interested of the outcome of the record rally of the USA stock indexes we have seen this year. That it will be hardly anyone doubts - trees don't grow to heavens. Consequences of this outcome will feel on themselves as well all other stock markets.
We would like to remind that already on Sunday night will become known preliminary estimates of a season of sales in America and there is a big share of probability that demand of consumers this year will be weaker and data in whole will show negative results, which certainly can lead to correction. There are all bases to believe that next week we will see the beginning of the correction on the American and other world stock markets.
Friday becomes rather busy day from the point of view of macroeconomic statistics. Early in the morning Japanese data confirmed preservation of annual inflation at the level of 1,1%% which is a good signal for the government which has set as the purpose to overcome a long-term deflation for stimulation of business activity in the country. In the European region will be published main data of this week - indicators of a labor market, we expect at least minor improvement of coefficient of unemployment.
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2013/11/29
2013/11/28
The market of the USA is going to be closed in honor of Thanksgiving Day celebration
Yesterday the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the moderate growth of the main stock indexes. Indexes were getting support from the published macroeconomic statistical data and the hi-tech sector looked better than the market due to the successful reporting of Hewlett-Packard. The price of shares of producer of the computer equipment, Hewlett-Packard, jumped up for 9,1%% against the publication of the quarterly report. The company revenue in three months decreased from $29,96 billion year earlier to $29,1 billion while analysts expected only $27,8 billion.
Let’s remind that according to the published data the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits for last week was reduced from the reconsidered 326 thousand to 316 thousand whereas the increase to 330 thousand was expected; The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in November decreased more than expectations - to 63 points at average forecasts at the level of 60, and an index of consumer confidence of university of Michigan for the current month showed increase from 72 points to 75,1 though, the increase only of 73,5 points was expected. Disappointed only data on orders for long using goods for October - the indicator was reduced by 2%%, which is slightly stronger than expectations.
So successful confluence of encouraging macroeconomic statistics helped all three stock indexes of the USA to go over some important trading levels, even the trading volumes yesterday were lower than usually due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day when the exchanges will be closed.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,15%% to level of 16097,33 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,25%% to a level of 1807,23 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,67%% and reached a level of 4044,75 points.
In the commodity market, Brent is adding in price and has managed to go over level of 111,00$. This morning Brent is traded on a price of 111,42$ per barrel and increasing for 0,09%%. Light at the same time is falling in price, traded on a price of 92,22$ per barrel and decreasing for 0,08%%. Gold and silver are stable in the levels metals were yesterday. Gold is up for 0,09%% on a level of 1238,95$ per troy ounce, silver is up for 0,11%% at price of 19,66$ per troy ounce.
As to the EUR/USD currency pair, euro continues to become stronger. EUR/USD had bases to continue strengthening as since the morning the markets received news that Angela Merkel's block could create the coalition with social democrats. It was quite expected event, however still encouraged demand for pair. Positive growth of an indicator of business climate in Germany - the index became stronger to 7,4 from previous 7,1, also played it’s supporting role. Today we shall pay attention to a labor market of Germany, if indicators will be positive again, pair will be able to resume growth with the next purpose on 1,3640.
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Let’s remind that according to the published data the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits for last week was reduced from the reconsidered 326 thousand to 316 thousand whereas the increase to 330 thousand was expected; The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in November decreased more than expectations - to 63 points at average forecasts at the level of 60, and an index of consumer confidence of university of Michigan for the current month showed increase from 72 points to 75,1 though, the increase only of 73,5 points was expected. Disappointed only data on orders for long using goods for October - the indicator was reduced by 2%%, which is slightly stronger than expectations.
So successful confluence of encouraging macroeconomic statistics helped all three stock indexes of the USA to go over some important trading levels, even the trading volumes yesterday were lower than usually due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day when the exchanges will be closed.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,15%% to level of 16097,33 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,25%% to a level of 1807,23 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,67%% and reached a level of 4044,75 points.
In the commodity market, Brent is adding in price and has managed to go over level of 111,00$. This morning Brent is traded on a price of 111,42$ per barrel and increasing for 0,09%%. Light at the same time is falling in price, traded on a price of 92,22$ per barrel and decreasing for 0,08%%. Gold and silver are stable in the levels metals were yesterday. Gold is up for 0,09%% on a level of 1238,95$ per troy ounce, silver is up for 0,11%% at price of 19,66$ per troy ounce.
As to the EUR/USD currency pair, euro continues to become stronger. EUR/USD had bases to continue strengthening as since the morning the markets received news that Angela Merkel's block could create the coalition with social democrats. It was quite expected event, however still encouraged demand for pair. Positive growth of an indicator of business climate in Germany - the index became stronger to 7,4 from previous 7,1, also played it’s supporting role. Today we shall pay attention to a labor market of Germany, if indicators will be positive again, pair will be able to resume growth with the next purpose on 1,3640.
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2013/11/27
Nasdaq subdued a level of 4000 points
Yesterday the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the insignificant growth of the main stock indexes. The Standard & Poor's 500 index manages to keep over a level of 1800 points whereas the index of blue chips Dow Jones rather surely is traded over level of 16 000 points.
Considerable volume of statistics which caused the mixed reaction in the markets has been published yesterday. Housing prices in 20 capital regions of the USA in 12 months with the termination in September increased to the maximum size since February, 2006 that signals about improvement gleams on the housing market. Moreover the number of permissions for construction of houses in October increased for 6,2%% more than expectations. At the same time, data on an index of consumer confidence for November disappointed investors - the indicator contrary to expectations decreased from the reconsidered 72,4 points to 70,4 points whereas retreat only to 72,9 points was expected.
Let's note that in the last half an hour of the trading session indexes reduced the obtained gain almost to zero as institutional investors tried to consider coming into force changes in structures of the MSCI indexes. Despite it, the index of hi-tech sector Nasdaq Composite managed to finish session above a level of 4000 points for the first time since 2000.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at the same price as the previous day at the level of 16072,80 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,1%% to a level of 1802,75 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,58%% and reached a level of 4017,75 points.
Commodities prices are stable, Brent is adding 0,06%% and traded on a level of 110,95$ per barrel; WTI is down for 0,25%% at price of 93,45$. Gold and silver are adding 0,39%% and 0,32%% accordingly, traded on a level of 1246,20$ and 19,91$ per troy ounce.
Due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, traditional weekly demands for unemployment benefits will be published today. Surprises are not expected, after jump due to the budgetary crisis to 370 thousand, some weeks in a row it tend to decrease. The last value made 323 thousand that historically is rather low level.
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Considerable volume of statistics which caused the mixed reaction in the markets has been published yesterday. Housing prices in 20 capital regions of the USA in 12 months with the termination in September increased to the maximum size since February, 2006 that signals about improvement gleams on the housing market. Moreover the number of permissions for construction of houses in October increased for 6,2%% more than expectations. At the same time, data on an index of consumer confidence for November disappointed investors - the indicator contrary to expectations decreased from the reconsidered 72,4 points to 70,4 points whereas retreat only to 72,9 points was expected.
Let's note that in the last half an hour of the trading session indexes reduced the obtained gain almost to zero as institutional investors tried to consider coming into force changes in structures of the MSCI indexes. Despite it, the index of hi-tech sector Nasdaq Composite managed to finish session above a level of 4000 points for the first time since 2000.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at the same price as the previous day at the level of 16072,80 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,1%% to a level of 1802,75 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,58%% and reached a level of 4017,75 points.
Commodities prices are stable, Brent is adding 0,06%% and traded on a level of 110,95$ per barrel; WTI is down for 0,25%% at price of 93,45$. Gold and silver are adding 0,39%% and 0,32%% accordingly, traded on a level of 1246,20$ and 19,91$ per troy ounce.
Due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, traditional weekly demands for unemployment benefits will be published today. Surprises are not expected, after jump due to the budgetary crisis to 370 thousand, some weeks in a row it tend to decrease. The last value made 323 thousand that historically is rather low level.
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2013/11/26
Investors are trying to avoid active actions
Key stock indexes of Europe showed positive dynamics supported by the found agreement on control of the nuclear program in Iran. So, Iran refused uranium enrichment for the next six months in exchange for mitigation of the economic sanctions concerning export of oil, cars and precious metals. Based on that following the results of the trading session the key index of Great Britain FTSE 100 increased by 0,3%%, French CAC 40 became 0,55%% heavier, and German DAX went to plus for 0,88%%.
The American market also has started first day of the trading week on a positive note, but by the end of the day indexes showed different results. S&P index shows growth for seven last weeks supported by idea of preservation of volume of the program of quantitative easing by FED. "The day before it became known that a number of banks made the statement that if FED will start to cut the quantitative program and will make interest on deposits negative, banks will start to take money from clients for bank deposits”, - the experts make comments, noting that this information justifies a turn in oil and gold and also the equity market can receive the next portion of free cash.
Following the results of the trading session the Dow Jones index added 0,04%% and reached level of 16072,54 points, S&P decreased by 0,12%%, to the level of 1802,48 points, Nasdaq appeared in plus for 0,07%% and made 3994,57 points.
Asian markets this morning are moving in a different directions too. Japanese Nikkei loses 0,11%%, correcting after four-day growth against strengthening yen in relation to dollar. The Chinese Shanghai Composite grew by 0,01%%, the Korean KOSPI added 0,14%%, the Hong Kong HANG SENG grew up for 0,21%%.
Prices of commodities restored loses we have seen yesterday. Brent is traded on 110,59$ per barrel, Light is up to 94,46$ per barrel. Gold is increasing for 1,00%% and is on the level of 1253,64$ per troy ounce, silver managed to return back to the level above 20,00$ adding 1,41%% and traded on a price of 20,16$ per troy ounce.
Today are not going to be published a lot of important macroeconomic statistical data. From important data - it should be noted a release of September’s data on quantity of new buildings in the USA where growth to 908 thousand houses is predicted.
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2013/11/25
Iran acquired a right to use nuclear power that pushed commodities down
Long-awaited safe permission of a situation with Iran became one of the main events of last weekend. Only after almost 10 years, on November 24, on the next round of negotiations the compromise was found in Geneva. Six international intermediaries (the Russian Federation, the USA, the People's Republic of China, Great Britain, France and Germany) recognized the right of Iran to use of nuclear power in the peace purposes on condition of control from IAEA. Within the signed arrangement there is the right of Iran to peace atom, including the right to enrichment, at understanding that this program will be put under the strictest control of IAEA. The U.S. President Barack Obama urged the congress of the USA to refrain from introduction of new sanctions against Iran due to achievement of arrangements in Geneva. According to the U.S. President B. Obama, the reached agreement represents the first step in a solution which will create space and time for achievement of further arrangements according to the nuclear program of Iran.
It isn't clear yet as all stock markets will react to this news, but the oil market precisely after such statements will have a correction. This morning Brent is losing 2,63%% traded on a level of 108,13$ and Light is down for 1,39%% at a price of 93,52$ per barrel.
Not less interesting situation continues to develop in the market of precious metals. On the basis of development of deflationary processes in Japan, Europe and the USA - gold and silver already more than a year continue the decrease and it at over soft monetary policy of the central banks and artificially increased liquidity. Fears about fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED only strengthen a negative view of precious metals.
From the technical point of view gold already more than a year is in a descending trend and while we cannot see even one sign which will show the turn of the trend. Recently gold has been gone throw the important technical level on a 1250,00$ and now the most expected is level of 1200, 00$ per troy ounce. This levels could be taken into consideration for the opening of the long positions. It is worth to note that cost of gold mining now on the average makes 1100,00-1200,00$, therefore we hardly will see a collapse of quotations lower than 1100,00$.
This morning gold is down for 0,97%% at a price of 1232,10$ per troy ounce. Silver is also under strong pressure, decreasing for 1,13%% and bargaining next to the level of 19,64$ per troy ounce.
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It isn't clear yet as all stock markets will react to this news, but the oil market precisely after such statements will have a correction. This morning Brent is losing 2,63%% traded on a level of 108,13$ and Light is down for 1,39%% at a price of 93,52$ per barrel.
Not less interesting situation continues to develop in the market of precious metals. On the basis of development of deflationary processes in Japan, Europe and the USA - gold and silver already more than a year continue the decrease and it at over soft monetary policy of the central banks and artificially increased liquidity. Fears about fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED only strengthen a negative view of precious metals.
From the technical point of view gold already more than a year is in a descending trend and while we cannot see even one sign which will show the turn of the trend. Recently gold has been gone throw the important technical level on a 1250,00$ and now the most expected is level of 1200, 00$ per troy ounce. This levels could be taken into consideration for the opening of the long positions. It is worth to note that cost of gold mining now on the average makes 1100,00-1200,00$, therefore we hardly will see a collapse of quotations lower than 1100,00$.
This morning gold is down for 0,97%% at a price of 1232,10$ per troy ounce. Silver is also under strong pressure, decreasing for 1,13%% and bargaining next to the level of 19,64$ per troy ounce.
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2013/11/22
Positive statistical data is pushing quotations up
Yesterday has been a very saturated day from a view of a published statistical data. Macroeconomic statistical data from China in the morning did not bring a lot of positive to the market. Data on business activity in the industries calculated by HSBC bank in November decreased for 0,5 points from the level of previous month and made 50,4 points.
Results in Europe were much more positive. Presented preliminary data on business activity in the manufacturing sphere in the Eurozone made 51,56 points that completely coincided with expectations of experts. In Germany the index reached level of 52,5 points, 52 points were predicted. Also today PMI preliminary results were published for services industry, indicator in the Eurozone made 50,9 points at predicted 51,9 points, and in Germany - 54,5 points, whereas 53 points were expected.
In the USA number of primary requests for unemployment benefits has been presented. For last week 323 thousand were recorded at expected 335 thousand. The previous value has been reconsidered from 339 thousand to 344 thousand. The price index of producers in October decreased by 0,2%%, but it was not a surprise for participants of the market. The worse development has been observed in Fed Manufacturing index of Philadelphia, index in November made just 6,5 points, at expected 15 points. Market indexes of the USA in the first half of the auction grow up.
As a result, trading session has finished with the Dow Jones adding 0,69%% and traded on a level of 16009,99 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,81%% reaching level of 1795,85 points and Nasdaq grew for 1,22%% to the level of 3969, 15 points.
In the meantime, oil as well rose in price to maximum levels of this month, owing to favorable data on employment and the increased demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. Price for WTI during yesterday’s trading session increased for 1,7%% to level of 95,44$ per barrel, Brent jumped for 1,87%% to a price of 110,08$.
In turn gold continues to lose in price in connection with expectations of reduction of volumes of financial stimulation of economy from FED on one of the subsequent meetings. The price of gold fell for another 1,1%% to value of 1243,60$ for troy ounce.
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2013/11/21
The minutes of FOMC damped an ardor of the markets
On Thursday, the American market finished trading session with a moderate decrease. If at the beginning of the session we could observe speculative purchases supported by published data on inflation and Ben Bernanke's "soft” comments, after an exit of protocols of last FED meeting - market handed over positions and went to a minus. In the protocol of the last meeting of FED was stated that the Central Bank expects improvement of a macroeconomic picture, which in turn gives the grounds for reduction of the program of quantitative easing. The president of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in his speech also noted that the question of reduction of monthly purchases is already in the agenda of the meeting in December.
The macroeconomic indicators which have been published yesterday were of the mixed character as well. On the one hand consumer inflation made 1,7%% that below a target rate of inflation required by FED, and sale of houses in the secondary market decreased by 3,2%% to 5,12 million, but on the other hand, retails showed growth by 0,4%% at average expectations of 0,1%%. Production stocks increased by 0,6%% at average forecasts of 0,3%%.
As a result, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index decreased for 0,41%% to a level of 15900,82 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,36%% to level of 1781,37 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded for 0,26%% to a level of 3921,27 points.
Commodities also continued to fall, price of oil is decreasing this morning for 0,34%% on Brent and 0,30%% on WTI traded on 107,69$ and 93,57$ per barrel accordingly. Gold and silver are significantly down, with gold losing 0,93%% at level of 1246,29$ and silver down for 0,85%% at price of 19,89$ per troy ounce.
From the statistics which is going to be published today it is worth paying attention to the PMI indexes in production sector and sector of services of the Eurozone and Germany in particular, and production PMI in the USA. Also will be published data on primary requests for an unemployment benefit in the USA, and the bank committee of the Senate of the USA will vote for Janet Yelen's candidate as the new head of FED in the USA.
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2013/11/20
The markets are captured by a wave of profit taking
Tuesday’s trading session ended in a red zone. Investors are gradually preparing for two key events of the current week – statistical data on retail sales and the protocol of last meeting of FOMC. That is interesting, results can have multidirectional impact on the direction of dollar and it is not clear which of releases will have bigger influence.
The last report on retails showed decrease in a consumer demand, many aspects confirm that this time markets also can be disappointed. Already published reports of Redbook on activity of buyers in shopping centers showed that sales "go with a scratch", and retailers should fight for each buyer. Researches of Bloomberg agency already prophesy that the current season of purchases can become the most low-active since 2009. So, if data on retails is going to be really weak, even a positive spirit of representatives of FOMC within the last meeting won't be able to return belief in USD.
Meanwhile, euro won’t be able to use situation with the weakening dollar for it’s best, if the PMI and IFO data will also confirm that growth rates in the largest economic system of Europe quite decreased, which we have seen from the published yesterday business moods. If about same tell PMI and IFO data, couple should give everything earned lately. As for today, the closest level to break is based on the area of 1,3550, the next purpose is located in the field of 1,3590.
If to go back to the American session, then following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 0,06%% minus on a level 15967,03 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,20%% to level of 1787,87 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded for 0,44%% to a level of 3919,92 points.
Prices of commodities in the commodity market remains to be weak. Brent is on 107,11$ per barrel, WTI on 94,21$ per barrel; gaining 0,17%% and 0,34%% accordingly. Gold is flat on 1273,53$ per troy ounce, silver is increasing for 0,35%% traded on a level of 20,40$. Since the beginning of year quotations of oil fell on 4%%, gold on 24%%, silver on 33%%, platinum on 8%%. Prices can be restored only if the world economy is going to lift up, and not the solution of the Chinese plenum on reforming of economy. Results of reforms will be shown only in years, and now, for example oil lowering factors are restoration of export of oil from Libya and a possible exit of oil from Iran to the world markets as a result of weakening of sanctions.
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The last report on retails showed decrease in a consumer demand, many aspects confirm that this time markets also can be disappointed. Already published reports of Redbook on activity of buyers in shopping centers showed that sales "go with a scratch", and retailers should fight for each buyer. Researches of Bloomberg agency already prophesy that the current season of purchases can become the most low-active since 2009. So, if data on retails is going to be really weak, even a positive spirit of representatives of FOMC within the last meeting won't be able to return belief in USD.
Meanwhile, euro won’t be able to use situation with the weakening dollar for it’s best, if the PMI and IFO data will also confirm that growth rates in the largest economic system of Europe quite decreased, which we have seen from the published yesterday business moods. If about same tell PMI and IFO data, couple should give everything earned lately. As for today, the closest level to break is based on the area of 1,3550, the next purpose is located in the field of 1,3590.
If to go back to the American session, then following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 0,06%% minus on a level 15967,03 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,20%% to level of 1787,87 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded for 0,44%% to a level of 3919,92 points.
Prices of commodities in the commodity market remains to be weak. Brent is on 107,11$ per barrel, WTI on 94,21$ per barrel; gaining 0,17%% and 0,34%% accordingly. Gold is flat on 1273,53$ per troy ounce, silver is increasing for 0,35%% traded on a level of 20,40$. Since the beginning of year quotations of oil fell on 4%%, gold on 24%%, silver on 33%%, platinum on 8%%. Prices can be restored only if the world economy is going to lift up, and not the solution of the Chinese plenum on reforming of economy. Results of reforms will be shown only in years, and now, for example oil lowering factors are restoration of export of oil from Libya and a possible exit of oil from Iran to the world markets as a result of weakening of sanctions.
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2013/11/19
Investors started to doubt correctness of growth of stock indexes
Yesterday the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a moderate decrease in the main indexes, and the index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded for the first time a level of 16 000 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, in turn, during session for the first time exceeded a level of 1800 points. Investors started to have concerns related to the ability of the markets to continue its rally up.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,09%% to level of 15976,02 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,37%% to a level of 1791,53 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0,93%% and reached a level of 3949,07 points. Nasdaq lost much more than the other indexes, because the IT sector has been under strong pressure. In particular, Facebook and Twitter lost more than 6%% of capitalization.
The Asian markets following the American session bargained without essential dynamics. The index of the industrial companies of continental China in Hong Kong showed again increase over 1,00%%, and for three trading sessions grew already by 10,00%%. Meanwhile, has been published statistics which showed that growth of volume of direct foreign investments in China slowed down to 5,77%% in October from 6,2%% in September. In Japan, on the contrary, the market appeared under pressure because of strengthening of yen which is more expensive again and is on a level over 100 yens for dollar. Nikkei 225 closed trading session with a decrease of 0,25%% at a level of 15126,56 point s and Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0,18%% reaching level of 2193,13 points.
The commodity market in many respects ignored the Chinese positive because of a proceeding rise in prices for real estate in the country. Growth in October on the average made 8,78%% in annual expression that can become a reason for the next drastic measures in the monetary policies. Gold again decreased in price, this morning winning a minus a bit back – adding 0,13%% and traded on a price of 1273,91$ per troy ounce. Reserves of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 4,2 tons to 864, 51 ton. This is a lowest value of reserves of fund since February, 2009 when incentives of FRS only were expected. However, price for a metal at that time was much lower, in the range of 900,00$ - 950,00$ for troy ounce. Brent down for 0,38%% at price of 108,06$ per barrel, WTI is down for 0,15%% at level of 93,54$ per barrel.
Today are going to be published current conditions and economic expectations of ZEW of Germany and Employment Cost Index in USA.
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Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,09%% to level of 15976,02 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,37%% to a level of 1791,53 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0,93%% and reached a level of 3949,07 points. Nasdaq lost much more than the other indexes, because the IT sector has been under strong pressure. In particular, Facebook and Twitter lost more than 6%% of capitalization.
The Asian markets following the American session bargained without essential dynamics. The index of the industrial companies of continental China in Hong Kong showed again increase over 1,00%%, and for three trading sessions grew already by 10,00%%. Meanwhile, has been published statistics which showed that growth of volume of direct foreign investments in China slowed down to 5,77%% in October from 6,2%% in September. In Japan, on the contrary, the market appeared under pressure because of strengthening of yen which is more expensive again and is on a level over 100 yens for dollar. Nikkei 225 closed trading session with a decrease of 0,25%% at a level of 15126,56 point s and Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0,18%% reaching level of 2193,13 points.
The commodity market in many respects ignored the Chinese positive because of a proceeding rise in prices for real estate in the country. Growth in October on the average made 8,78%% in annual expression that can become a reason for the next drastic measures in the monetary policies. Gold again decreased in price, this morning winning a minus a bit back – adding 0,13%% and traded on a price of 1273,91$ per troy ounce. Reserves of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 4,2 tons to 864, 51 ton. This is a lowest value of reserves of fund since February, 2009 when incentives of FRS only were expected. However, price for a metal at that time was much lower, in the range of 900,00$ - 950,00$ for troy ounce. Brent down for 0,38%% at price of 108,06$ per barrel, WTI is down for 0,15%% at level of 93,54$ per barrel.
Today are going to be published current conditions and economic expectations of ZEW of Germany and Employment Cost Index in USA.
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2013/11/18
Dow Jones And S&P 500 Are Torn To Levels Of 16000 And 1800
On Friday last week, the main world stock indices showed moderate growth again, and increased in price. Most have been reacting to the published macroeconomic statistical data on industrial data in the USA, and Consumer Prices in Europe. Industrial production in country scales in October was reduced by 0.1% at the time, then an increase of 0.2% was expected. Some improvement was shown only by the manufacturing industry segment, of which volume of production in October increased by 0.3%, predicted at 0.2%.
However, statistical data didn't have an essential influence on the development on the stock exchanges, as the main growth driver was the speech given by the future head of FED, Janet Yellen, in front of the bank committee of the Senate of the USA. Having noted certain success in the recovery of the economy of the USA, Yellen labelled them as insufficient from the point of view of the economic capacity of the country, and stated fears concerning negative consequences at premature reduction of stimulating measures. Yellen also reported that she doesn't find excessively active growth of stock markets disturbing, and the emerging of obvious signs of "bubbles" on them will be eliminated by taking necessary actions.
Under these promises, the main stock indices of the US finished the trading session in a comfortable plus, Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reached new record levels, and have prolonged the successful series for 6 weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 0.54% to 15961.70 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.42%, having closed the trading session at the level of 1798.18 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.33% to the value of 3985.97 points.
The price of futures of Gold is falling by 0.09% and is on a level of 1286.21$ per troy ounce. Silver is up by 0.12% on a level of 20.75$ per troy ounce. Gold practically didn't change in the price, despite a potential bonus in the form of essential weakening of the Dollar, as investors concentrated their interest more on slightly riskier assets. As a whole, precious metal cost in a week increased by 0.2%, having interrupted a losing series of the 2 last weeks.
The prices for Oil are decreasing, Brent is losing 0.37%, traded on a level of 108.10$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.42% and is traded on a price of 94.09$ per barrel. Oil slightly increased in price, at the expense of the receded Dollar. Following the results of the 6th unprofitable week in a row, (such a long unsuccessful strip hasn't been observed since 1998), Oil suffered losses of 0.8%, owing to a continuous 8 week growth of its stocks in the US, and uncertainty of traders concerning the prospects of demand for energy carriers.
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However, statistical data didn't have an essential influence on the development on the stock exchanges, as the main growth driver was the speech given by the future head of FED, Janet Yellen, in front of the bank committee of the Senate of the USA. Having noted certain success in the recovery of the economy of the USA, Yellen labelled them as insufficient from the point of view of the economic capacity of the country, and stated fears concerning negative consequences at premature reduction of stimulating measures. Yellen also reported that she doesn't find excessively active growth of stock markets disturbing, and the emerging of obvious signs of "bubbles" on them will be eliminated by taking necessary actions.
Under these promises, the main stock indices of the US finished the trading session in a comfortable plus, Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reached new record levels, and have prolonged the successful series for 6 weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 0.54% to 15961.70 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.42%, having closed the trading session at the level of 1798.18 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.33% to the value of 3985.97 points.
The price of futures of Gold is falling by 0.09% and is on a level of 1286.21$ per troy ounce. Silver is up by 0.12% on a level of 20.75$ per troy ounce. Gold practically didn't change in the price, despite a potential bonus in the form of essential weakening of the Dollar, as investors concentrated their interest more on slightly riskier assets. As a whole, precious metal cost in a week increased by 0.2%, having interrupted a losing series of the 2 last weeks.
The prices for Oil are decreasing, Brent is losing 0.37%, traded on a level of 108.10$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.42% and is traded on a price of 94.09$ per barrel. Oil slightly increased in price, at the expense of the receded Dollar. Following the results of the 6th unprofitable week in a row, (such a long unsuccessful strip hasn't been observed since 1998), Oil suffered losses of 0.8%, owing to a continuous 8 week growth of its stocks in the US, and uncertainty of traders concerning the prospects of demand for energy carriers.
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2013/11/15
Indexes continue to storm new heights supported by Yellen's statements
One more trading week is coming to the end and nothing has changed in the world economy, but the American and German stock markets continue to update historical maximum levels. At the same time all developing countries are trampled down on one place. Following the results of a week we again can see that according to EPFR data, outflow from the Brazilian funds for a week made 442 million dollars, Russia for the same period lost 225 million dollars, however in China on the contrary inflow of 308 million dollars and in India inflow of 28 million dollars.
Whole week investors have been waiting for the press-conference of Janet Yellen, which took place yesterday and boosted markets up. Her debut on Bank committee of the Senate of the USA was very optimistic and expectations of rather fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED came to naught. Before meeting of FED in December - investors hardly will be afraid of anything.
Thanks to it, the American Dow Jones and S&P500 indexes copied yesterday historical maxima, and in leaders of growth in the equity market of the USA has been a financial sector. Following the results of the trading session, Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,35%% to level of 15876,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,48%% to a level of 1790,62 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,18%% and reached a level of 3972,74 points.
It is quite clear that the risk of correction on the American platforms certainly is now very high and every week it only grows, but before we are going to see any strong negative news - we are not going to see essential decrease in America.
Commodity markets also did not miss to catch some positive, prices for oil went slightly up and this morning Brent is adding 0,07%% traded on a level of 108,36$ per barrel, Light is up for 0,28%% and bargaining next to the level of 94,67$ per barrel. Gold and silver are flat on a levels of 1286,42$ and 20,72$ per troy ounce accordingly.
Among the last statistics to be published today - the attention of investors will be drawn by indicators of industrial production in the USA.
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Whole week investors have been waiting for the press-conference of Janet Yellen, which took place yesterday and boosted markets up. Her debut on Bank committee of the Senate of the USA was very optimistic and expectations of rather fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED came to naught. Before meeting of FED in December - investors hardly will be afraid of anything.
Thanks to it, the American Dow Jones and S&P500 indexes copied yesterday historical maxima, and in leaders of growth in the equity market of the USA has been a financial sector. Following the results of the trading session, Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,35%% to level of 15876,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,48%% to a level of 1790,62 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,18%% and reached a level of 3972,74 points.
It is quite clear that the risk of correction on the American platforms certainly is now very high and every week it only grows, but before we are going to see any strong negative news - we are not going to see essential decrease in America.
Commodity markets also did not miss to catch some positive, prices for oil went slightly up and this morning Brent is adding 0,07%% traded on a level of 108,36$ per barrel, Light is up for 0,28%% and bargaining next to the level of 94,67$ per barrel. Gold and silver are flat on a levels of 1286,42$ and 20,72$ per troy ounce accordingly.
Among the last statistics to be published today - the attention of investors will be drawn by indicators of industrial production in the USA.
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2013/11/14
Indexes of the USA updated historical maxima on Yellen’s statements
Stock indexes of the USA updated historical maxima on positively apprehended reporting of Macy's and expectations of continuation of monetary easing stimulus after Janet Yellen's appointment. As a result, trading session in the USA finished with the Dow Jones adding 0,45%% and traded on a level of 15821,63 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,81%% and reached level of 1782,00 points, Nasdaq added in price 1,17%% traded on a level of 3965,57 points.
Such a strong positive effect on the market has been brought by vice-chairman of FED, Janet Yellen, who now is considered as the savior of the American market. She considers that the economy and a labor market show growth which is much weaker than the potential. Therefore while the economy won't gain strength, FED will continue the stimulating policy. Respectively, "strong restoration is a necessary condition to start folding of not conventional measures of FED, as program of repayment of assets", - it is stated in the prepared text for her press-conference which will take place tomorrow.
Reaction of Asia to Yellen's words was also very positive. MSCI Asia-Pacific grew up for 1,2%%. The Japanese market also received additional incentive in the form of a preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the III quarter. National economy grew by 1,9%% at consensus of economists of 1,7%%, but much more slowly, than in the II quarter when growth rates made 3,8%%. Nikkei 225 grew up for 2,39%%,and Shanghai Composite for +0,45%%.
Another interesting and positive development, we observed in the commodity market. Where Brent is increasing for 0,07%% this morning and reached level of 106,97$ per barrel, WTI is flat at price of 94,48$. At the same time oil still appears under pressure of statistics of stocks in the USA. American Petroleum Institute reported that during last week, commercial stocks of oil increased by 0,6 million barrels, stocks of gasoline decreased by 1,67 million barrels and distillates grew by 0,6 million barrels.
Prices for precious metals finally took a revenge after continuing fall for few days. Gold is up for 1,15 %% and silver for 1,79%%, traded on a price of 1283,04$ and 20,81$ accordingly. It should be noted that gold has ideas for purchase, namely mitigation of policy of European Central Bank, and also the statements from FED representatives that the super soft policy is still far from end. Therefore it is quite obvious some rebound on yellow metal.
In the second half of day investors and speculators will be guided by character of statistics coming from the USA. Weekly data on number of primary demands for unemployment benefits will become the considered as the most important signal.
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Such a strong positive effect on the market has been brought by vice-chairman of FED, Janet Yellen, who now is considered as the savior of the American market. She considers that the economy and a labor market show growth which is much weaker than the potential. Therefore while the economy won't gain strength, FED will continue the stimulating policy. Respectively, "strong restoration is a necessary condition to start folding of not conventional measures of FED, as program of repayment of assets", - it is stated in the prepared text for her press-conference which will take place tomorrow.
Reaction of Asia to Yellen's words was also very positive. MSCI Asia-Pacific grew up for 1,2%%. The Japanese market also received additional incentive in the form of a preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the III quarter. National economy grew by 1,9%% at consensus of economists of 1,7%%, but much more slowly, than in the II quarter when growth rates made 3,8%%. Nikkei 225 grew up for 2,39%%,and Shanghai Composite for +0,45%%.
Another interesting and positive development, we observed in the commodity market. Where Brent is increasing for 0,07%% this morning and reached level of 106,97$ per barrel, WTI is flat at price of 94,48$. At the same time oil still appears under pressure of statistics of stocks in the USA. American Petroleum Institute reported that during last week, commercial stocks of oil increased by 0,6 million barrels, stocks of gasoline decreased by 1,67 million barrels and distillates grew by 0,6 million barrels.
Prices for precious metals finally took a revenge after continuing fall for few days. Gold is up for 1,15 %% and silver for 1,79%%, traded on a price of 1283,04$ and 20,81$ accordingly. It should be noted that gold has ideas for purchase, namely mitigation of policy of European Central Bank, and also the statements from FED representatives that the super soft policy is still far from end. Therefore it is quite obvious some rebound on yellow metal.
In the second half of day investors and speculators will be guided by character of statistics coming from the USA. Weekly data on number of primary demands for unemployment benefits will become the considered as the most important signal.
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2013/11/13
Investors Continue To Trace Comments Of Official Representatives Of FED
On Tuesday, the American market finished the trading session with a small decrease. This week is rather quiet from the point of the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the market are digesting data published last week, taking profit and following speeches by representatives of different regulators.
Yesterday's comments from a representative of FED of Dallas, didn't deceive our expectations. He called recent data from the labor market "quite good", and emphasized that further stimulation of the economy every day bears more and more risks. At the same time, Kocherlakota devoted his speech to the weak condition of the labor market, hinting that it is still too early to speak about turning of monetary easing program. Also, attention can be paid to the speech of Fisher, even though he isn't the voting member of FOMC for the current year, he will acquire a vote in 2014. Today is the expected speech of Sandra Pianalto's, who also doesn't possess a vote in 2013.
As a result, the trading session in the US finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 0.21% on a level of 15750.67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.24% to level of 1767.69 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq was closed with zero change on a level of 3919.92 points.
The European stock platforms yesterday also appeared to be under pressure from the corporate reporting, leading indexes lost around 0.3-0,6%. Asian platforms began the new day with a decrease, the news background is formed by China where they ended the 3rd plenum of the Central Committee of communist party. Investors estimated meeting results as unclear, prospects of the economy were presented without concrete steps on achievement of goals. The Chinese Hang Seng loses this morning around 0.9%.
Commodities are continuing to fall, even this morning prices for Oil and Gold are managing to win back a bit from yesterday’s losses. Brent is traded on a price of 105.99$ per barrel adding 0.43% and WTI is up by 0.39% at 93.89$ per barrel. Gold is at price of 1274.59$ per troy ounce and wins 0.26%, and Silver oppositely loses 0.06% and is traded on a price of 20.76$ per troy ounce.
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Yesterday's comments from a representative of FED of Dallas, didn't deceive our expectations. He called recent data from the labor market "quite good", and emphasized that further stimulation of the economy every day bears more and more risks. At the same time, Kocherlakota devoted his speech to the weak condition of the labor market, hinting that it is still too early to speak about turning of monetary easing program. Also, attention can be paid to the speech of Fisher, even though he isn't the voting member of FOMC for the current year, he will acquire a vote in 2014. Today is the expected speech of Sandra Pianalto's, who also doesn't possess a vote in 2013.
As a result, the trading session in the US finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 0.21% on a level of 15750.67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.24% to level of 1767.69 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq was closed with zero change on a level of 3919.92 points.
The European stock platforms yesterday also appeared to be under pressure from the corporate reporting, leading indexes lost around 0.3-0,6%. Asian platforms began the new day with a decrease, the news background is formed by China where they ended the 3rd plenum of the Central Committee of communist party. Investors estimated meeting results as unclear, prospects of the economy were presented without concrete steps on achievement of goals. The Chinese Hang Seng loses this morning around 0.9%.
Commodities are continuing to fall, even this morning prices for Oil and Gold are managing to win back a bit from yesterday’s losses. Brent is traded on a price of 105.99$ per barrel adding 0.43% and WTI is up by 0.39% at 93.89$ per barrel. Gold is at price of 1274.59$ per troy ounce and wins 0.26%, and Silver oppositely loses 0.06% and is traded on a price of 20.76$ per troy ounce.
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2013/11/12
Markets are reacting only on published statistical data
On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the insignificant growth of the main indexes. There were not published any macroeconomic statistics in the USA yesterday; besides, in the country Day of veterans was celebrated, and banks were closed, as well as the market on bonds. Respectively, the trading volume at yesterday's session was significantly lower than the usual.
As a result of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,14%% to level of 15783,10 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,07%% to a level of 1771,89 points, and the index Nasdaq Composite added in price just 0,01%% and reached a level of 3919,79 points.
As to the commodities market, then oil is continuing its downward trend. This morning Brent is losing 0,18%% and WTI is decreasing for 0,29%%, traded on a price of 105,99$ and 95,19$ per barrel accordingly. Precious metals are also losing in price, with gold traded on a level of 1280,45$ per troy ounce and decreasing for 0,05%%. Silver is slightly more weak at a price of 21,18$ per troy ounce and losing 0,48%%.
In the focus of the market this week are going to be speech of the future head of FED - Janet Yellen in front of Bank Committee of the Senate, and also the reporting of large American retailers. Quarterly report of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is going to be published on 14th of November, Home Depot Inc will present results on 19th of November.
As for today, then in the second half of day will be published weekly indicator of sales of Redbook which considers sales volume of networks of large shops and hypermarkets in the USA. Moods in the American market are still quite while optimistic, all the October’s data published so far can be considered quite positive and better than expectations.
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As a result of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,14%% to level of 15783,10 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,07%% to a level of 1771,89 points, and the index Nasdaq Composite added in price just 0,01%% and reached a level of 3919,79 points.
As to the commodities market, then oil is continuing its downward trend. This morning Brent is losing 0,18%% and WTI is decreasing for 0,29%%, traded on a price of 105,99$ and 95,19$ per barrel accordingly. Precious metals are also losing in price, with gold traded on a level of 1280,45$ per troy ounce and decreasing for 0,05%%. Silver is slightly more weak at a price of 21,18$ per troy ounce and losing 0,48%%.
In the focus of the market this week are going to be speech of the future head of FED - Janet Yellen in front of Bank Committee of the Senate, and also the reporting of large American retailers. Quarterly report of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is going to be published on 14th of November, Home Depot Inc will present results on 19th of November.
As for today, then in the second half of day will be published weekly indicator of sales of Redbook which considers sales volume of networks of large shops and hypermarkets in the USA. Moods in the American market are still quite while optimistic, all the October’s data published so far can be considered quite positive and better than expectations.
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2013/11/11
The markets stiffened on uncertainty where to move further
On Friday in stock market of the USA, we observed movement which has been almost completely opposite to the seen by us on Thursday. The majority of liquid papers have been growing, and in favourites were hi-tech companies. Dow Jones increased for 1,08%% and reached level of 15761,78 points, Nasdaq has been adding in price 1,60%% and finished trading session on a level of 3919,23 points, S&P 500 added 1,34%% and reached level of 1770,61 points.
In the beginning of the trading day, markets reacted with the movement down because of the published awaited data on a labor market which has showed significant growth in a last month. The number of new workplaces in non-agricultural sector for October jumped up at once to 204 thousand while the average forecast of the market assumed growth only on 126 thousand. Values in two last months were reconsidered towards increase in total on 60 000. Unemployment rate was recorded on a level of 7.3%% against consensus forecast at the level of 7.4%%. Even this statistics managed to push indexes down, during the day officials of FED managed to calm them by giving promising speeches.
The morning trading session in Asia is not showing the same positive dynamics, the majority of local indexes bargain in a minus, only Japanese Nikkei adds more than 1%% because has been published strong data on the account of the current operations of the country which for the first time in four months showed surplus. It should be noted small decrease in the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index against, as a whole, quite good Saturday data on industrial production - +10,3%% against the forecast of 10%% and to retails - +13,3%% against the forecast of 13,4%%. It seems that investors stiffened waiting for results of the 18th congress of Communist Party of the People's Republic of China and don't react to macroeconomic data.
Situation in the commodity markets are still quite weak. Brent and WTI are traded on a level of 105,32$ and 95,17$ per barrel accordingly, adding in price around 0.2%%. Gold is below level of 1300,00$ and is traded this morning on a price of 1286.22$, adding in price 0,13%%. Silver up for 0,33%% on a price of 21,38$ per troy ounce.
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In the beginning of the trading day, markets reacted with the movement down because of the published awaited data on a labor market which has showed significant growth in a last month. The number of new workplaces in non-agricultural sector for October jumped up at once to 204 thousand while the average forecast of the market assumed growth only on 126 thousand. Values in two last months were reconsidered towards increase in total on 60 000. Unemployment rate was recorded on a level of 7.3%% against consensus forecast at the level of 7.4%%. Even this statistics managed to push indexes down, during the day officials of FED managed to calm them by giving promising speeches.
The morning trading session in Asia is not showing the same positive dynamics, the majority of local indexes bargain in a minus, only Japanese Nikkei adds more than 1%% because has been published strong data on the account of the current operations of the country which for the first time in four months showed surplus. It should be noted small decrease in the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index against, as a whole, quite good Saturday data on industrial production - +10,3%% against the forecast of 10%% and to retails - +13,3%% against the forecast of 13,4%%. It seems that investors stiffened waiting for results of the 18th congress of Communist Party of the People's Republic of China and don't react to macroeconomic data.
Situation in the commodity markets are still quite weak. Brent and WTI are traded on a level of 105,32$ and 95,17$ per barrel accordingly, adding in price around 0.2%%. Gold is below level of 1300,00$ and is traded this morning on a price of 1286.22$, adding in price 0,13%%. Silver up for 0,33%% on a price of 21,38$ per troy ounce.
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2013/11/08
The decision of ECB to decrease interest rate to 25% became a surprise for investors
Yesterday regulators of the Eurozone and the USA were bringing markets out of an equilibrium state. Trading session in the American stock market has finished with a significant decrease, Dow Jones came to end of the session with a decrease of 0,97%% having reached level of 15593,98 points, S&P 500 lost 1,32%% traded on a level of 1747,15 points and the biggest loser became Nasdaq, which lost 1,90%% and finished trading session on a level of 3857,33 points.
Optimism in the beginning of the trading session has been very quickly removed after the macroeconomic statistical data has been published. Strong data on gross domestic product of the USA in 3rd quarter, which has made 2,8%%, when only 2%% were predicted – pushed indexes down. The number of demands for an unemployment benefit in the USA last week decreased by 9 thousand and made 336 thousand, analytics were predicting 335 thousand. These positive data changed market expectations and again gave ground for the thoughts that FRS will start displacing the program of monetary easing quicker.
At the same time the European regulator stirred up the markets, having decreased the interest rate to 0.25%% and prolonged operations of refinancing on the fixed rate till 2015. The bank of England left the rate at former low level of 0,5%%, having kept the size of volume of repayment of assets as well at former level. Pumped up data on industrial output in Germany, the indicator decreased in September by 0,9%% when analysts expected growth by 0,2%%. As a result - DAX increased by 0,49%%, FTSE 100 decreased by 0,66%%, and CAC 40 lost 0,14%%.
Very few participants of the market have been expecting such an actions from the ECB that is why reaction of euro was so dramatic. As a result, pair from level of opening at 1,3521 fell to a minimum level of 1,3294, having finished the trading session around 1,3430. This morning EUR/USD is bargaining around 1,34073.
Today’s data on unemployment in the USA and quantity of again created workplaces (NFP) can seriously affect following development in the markets. Strong data will correct terms of reduction of QE-3 from FRS, which will strengthen pressure upon the superheated stock markets. Today also starts the 3rd plenum of Communist Party of China on which reforms of the Chinese economy will be discussed. This event can have serious impact on the commodity market.
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Optimism in the beginning of the trading session has been very quickly removed after the macroeconomic statistical data has been published. Strong data on gross domestic product of the USA in 3rd quarter, which has made 2,8%%, when only 2%% were predicted – pushed indexes down. The number of demands for an unemployment benefit in the USA last week decreased by 9 thousand and made 336 thousand, analytics were predicting 335 thousand. These positive data changed market expectations and again gave ground for the thoughts that FRS will start displacing the program of monetary easing quicker.
At the same time the European regulator stirred up the markets, having decreased the interest rate to 0.25%% and prolonged operations of refinancing on the fixed rate till 2015. The bank of England left the rate at former low level of 0,5%%, having kept the size of volume of repayment of assets as well at former level. Pumped up data on industrial output in Germany, the indicator decreased in September by 0,9%% when analysts expected growth by 0,2%%. As a result - DAX increased by 0,49%%, FTSE 100 decreased by 0,66%%, and CAC 40 lost 0,14%%.
Very few participants of the market have been expecting such an actions from the ECB that is why reaction of euro was so dramatic. As a result, pair from level of opening at 1,3521 fell to a minimum level of 1,3294, having finished the trading session around 1,3430. This morning EUR/USD is bargaining around 1,34073.
Today’s data on unemployment in the USA and quantity of again created workplaces (NFP) can seriously affect following development in the markets. Strong data will correct terms of reduction of QE-3 from FRS, which will strengthen pressure upon the superheated stock markets. Today also starts the 3rd plenum of Communist Party of China on which reforms of the Chinese economy will be discussed. This event can have serious impact on the commodity market.
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2013/11/07
Meeting of European Central Bank and Draghi’s Conference Becomes a Key Events of the Day
Today one of the key places in an economic calendar are occupied by meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and the conference of Mario Draghi after it. It very might happen that this time the head of the Central Bank will prepare the markets for possible decrease of a rate in December.
The point is that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone at the moment is on 4-year minimum levels, and continues to fall. If falling is going to continue, it will start threatening the region with a deflation on a Japanese manner. The European Central Bank can't simply stay idle in such situation and if the regulator will take a decision for further mitigation, it is going to have a significant impact on euro. At the moment a support level is on a price of 1,3480, it’s breakdown can direct pair to the area of 1,34. The more we are going to receive positive data from the USA, the more possible it is going to be that EUR/USD will move towards level of 1,32 within next few weeks.
American stock markets showed yesterday inconsistent dynamics. Dow Jones managed to reach a new historical maximum having increased for 0,8%% and getting to the level of 15746,88 points, supported by growth of stock quotations of oil and gas monsters as Exxon Mobil (+1,3%%) and Chevron (+2,7%%), and also the computer giant IBM (+1,3%%). At the same time Nasdaq decreased by 0,20%% and finished trading session on a level of 3931,95 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,43%% reaching level of 1770,49 points.
The Leading Index of the USA published yesterday showed vigorous lifting for 0,7%%, having exceeded market expectations and showed that there are no reasons for troubles concerning health of the American economy, at least, until the end of this year. In this context the index of volatility of the American stocks, VIX, fell yesterday to 2-month minimum, having reflected very complacent spirit of investors.
Today investors will be very cautious before a release of important data from the USA and the decision of European Central Bank and Bank of England. As a whole, investors expect weak data on gross domestic product and a labor market that will promote further continuation of the program of quantitative easing in the USA up to spring of the next year.
***
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2013/11/06
Investors are Starting to Look on Facts and Figures
On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a small decrease in the main indexes. After the two days growth of an index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500, investors didn't manage to find motivation to push indexes to go up, quite good macroeconomic statistics didn't rescue the market from prevalence of bears. Let's remind that the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in October increased from 54,4 to 55,4 points, whereas decrease to 54 was expected.
Participants of the market already overcame the first euphoria after the government of the USA found a compromise and now are starting to look on facts and figures. After a long suspension of work of government agencies in October and decreasing speeds of recovery of American labor market - the investment community has no full picture about state of the economy, and investors are starting to have doubts in, whether the growth of the indexes which we have seen during the last month has been logical.
The external background for the American trading session has been quite negative, as the European markets showed bear dynamics, and Asian platforms were traded in a different directions. Additionally to this more negative has been brought to the markets by comments of the Jeffrey Leker, president of the FRS of Richmond, who has told that the economy of the USA next year will grow only by 2%, then up till the events of October – forecast of to 2,9-3,1% has been predicted.
As a result, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,13% to level of 15618,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,28% to a level of 1762,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,08% and reached a level of 3939,86 points.
In the commodities market, price for oil continue to fall. Yesterday price for WTI decreased to a price of 93,37$ per barrel and has been losing 1,3%. This morning, prices are recovering and Brent and WTI are adding a bit more than 0,5% bargaining on a levels of 105,90$ and 94,21$ per barrel accordingly.
We shouldn't forget that key events of the current week are going to be meeting of European Central Bank and a release of the last official data on unemployment for October from the Ministry of Labor of the USA. These events will happen on Thursday and Friday respectively, therefore today again activity in stock market will be lowered.
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Participants of the market already overcame the first euphoria after the government of the USA found a compromise and now are starting to look on facts and figures. After a long suspension of work of government agencies in October and decreasing speeds of recovery of American labor market - the investment community has no full picture about state of the economy, and investors are starting to have doubts in, whether the growth of the indexes which we have seen during the last month has been logical.
The external background for the American trading session has been quite negative, as the European markets showed bear dynamics, and Asian platforms were traded in a different directions. Additionally to this more negative has been brought to the markets by comments of the Jeffrey Leker, president of the FRS of Richmond, who has told that the economy of the USA next year will grow only by 2%, then up till the events of October – forecast of to 2,9-3,1% has been predicted.
As a result, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,13% to level of 15618,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,28% to a level of 1762,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,08% and reached a level of 3939,86 points.
In the commodities market, price for oil continue to fall. Yesterday price for WTI decreased to a price of 93,37$ per barrel and has been losing 1,3%. This morning, prices are recovering and Brent and WTI are adding a bit more than 0,5% bargaining on a levels of 105,90$ and 94,21$ per barrel accordingly.
We shouldn't forget that key events of the current week are going to be meeting of European Central Bank and a release of the last official data on unemployment for October from the Ministry of Labor of the USA. These events will happen on Thursday and Friday respectively, therefore today again activity in stock market will be lowered.
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2013/11/05
Markets move depending on published statistical data
Yesterday we did not see any essential changes in foreign stock markets. The American platforms on Monday has been traded with the volumes which has been lower than average, Dow Jones increased by 0,15%%, S&P 500 grew by 0,36%%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0,38%%. Support to the markets was given by R. Fisher's speech, where he negatively expressed his attitude towards political disagreements between republicans and democrats that led to the termination of financing of the budgetary establishments.
In the meantime, Asian platforms bargain in a different directions. Better than others feels the Australian ASX200 which adds about 0,8%%, supported by the news that Reserve Bank of Australia kept an interest rate at the current level of 2,5%%. Chinese Shanghai Composite decreases by 0,4%%. In the morning has been published the index of business activity in a services sector according to the HSBC version, which in October grew to 52,6 points. The Japanese market after a national holiday on Monday shows sluggish movement, increasing by 0,1%% in relation to closing levels of Friday.
It can be assumed that trading session in the European stock platforms is going to pass rather quietly, due to the fact that there are not a lot of statistical data to be published today. Data of economic moods of the countries of the Eurozone yesterday showed traditionally good results. As it has been expected, the PMI index in the production sector for the region made 51,3 points, having confirmed an initial assessment. The indicator of economic moods of Sentix in November continued the growth from 6 to 9 points, reflecting growth of business activity.
As to the important statistical data, today will be published PMI index of Great Britain in a services sector and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone, which shows decrease in rates of the growth since the end of 2011. In the evening also are going to be published numbers of ISM Services PMI in the USA. Indexes for the non-productive sphere, most likely, will confirm today the high level of optimism reached within a year.
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In the meantime, Asian platforms bargain in a different directions. Better than others feels the Australian ASX200 which adds about 0,8%%, supported by the news that Reserve Bank of Australia kept an interest rate at the current level of 2,5%%. Chinese Shanghai Composite decreases by 0,4%%. In the morning has been published the index of business activity in a services sector according to the HSBC version, which in October grew to 52,6 points. The Japanese market after a national holiday on Monday shows sluggish movement, increasing by 0,1%% in relation to closing levels of Friday.
It can be assumed that trading session in the European stock platforms is going to pass rather quietly, due to the fact that there are not a lot of statistical data to be published today. Data of economic moods of the countries of the Eurozone yesterday showed traditionally good results. As it has been expected, the PMI index in the production sector for the region made 51,3 points, having confirmed an initial assessment. The indicator of economic moods of Sentix in November continued the growth from 6 to 9 points, reflecting growth of business activity.
As to the important statistical data, today will be published PMI index of Great Britain in a services sector and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone, which shows decrease in rates of the growth since the end of 2011. In the evening also are going to be published numbers of ISM Services PMI in the USA. Indexes for the non-productive sphere, most likely, will confirm today the high level of optimism reached within a year.
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2013/11/04
The markets open month having made a good start
The Dow Jones index raised on 0.45%% to 15615.55 points, the gain in a week made 0.3%%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised on 0.29%%, having closed at the level of 1761.64 points, and having gained in a week just 0.1%%. The Nasdaq Composite index raised on 0.06%% to value of 3922.04 points, having lowered within a week on 0.5%%.
On Friday were published only one important macroeconomic news across the USA - an assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by Institute of management of deliveries of the USA, in October grew to the maximum value since April, 2011 having reached level of 56.4 points, then analytics were predicting decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering all that situation which we could observe in October in connection with threat of a default. It should be noted that this index the 5th month in a row stays on a level above 50 points which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive of the American industrial data was supported by higher, than it was expected, growth rates of industrial activity in China in October.
The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing down going trend. The price of futures of gold on Friday fell for 10.50 dollars or 0.9%% to a value of 1313.20 dollars for troy ounce. This morning gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price owing to essential strengthening of positions of dollar in a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of EUR/USD currency pair. Factor that FRS in the final document of the last meeting didn't exclude possibility of reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year also has been a significant factor, pushing gold down. As a total, gold for a week lost 2.9%%. Due to the falling of prices of gold, the world's largest gold-mining company the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%%, and the leader in the USA and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining receded for 4.7%%.
The price of Brent is on a level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on a price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to minimum levels since June 21st, due to the strengthening of dollar and continuous growth of its stocks within last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%%.
The upcoming week is the first week of new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.
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On Friday were published only one important macroeconomic news across the USA - an assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by Institute of management of deliveries of the USA, in October grew to the maximum value since April, 2011 having reached level of 56.4 points, then analytics were predicting decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering all that situation which we could observe in October in connection with threat of a default. It should be noted that this index the 5th month in a row stays on a level above 50 points which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive of the American industrial data was supported by higher, than it was expected, growth rates of industrial activity in China in October.
The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing down going trend. The price of futures of gold on Friday fell for 10.50 dollars or 0.9%% to a value of 1313.20 dollars for troy ounce. This morning gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price owing to essential strengthening of positions of dollar in a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of EUR/USD currency pair. Factor that FRS in the final document of the last meeting didn't exclude possibility of reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year also has been a significant factor, pushing gold down. As a total, gold for a week lost 2.9%%. Due to the falling of prices of gold, the world's largest gold-mining company the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%%, and the leader in the USA and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining receded for 4.7%%.
The price of Brent is on a level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on a price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to minimum levels since June 21st, due to the strengthening of dollar and continuous growth of its stocks within last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%%.
The upcoming week is the first week of new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.
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2013/11/01
Investors continue to digest results of FED meeting
The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a raw. Dow Jones decreased for 0,47%% and has been traded on the level of 15545,75 points, S&P500 fell to level of 1756,54 points losing 0,36%%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0,27%% being at the end of the day at the level of 3919,17 points. Main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for time now all statistics is perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.
Yesterday investors have been waiting for the results of FED meeting and now continue to digest results of it, trying to find in the text anything which can outline when QE-3 program will start to be reduced. A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but already in January 2014 by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for full turning by September, 2014.
American news do not really bother investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033,9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18,67%%.
However it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular a situation with euro strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on a further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned to be quite weak – only increased uncertainty in relation to Euro.
Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of Euro. Earlier during a week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that decrease in a rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank can again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient level. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that process of recovery proceeds unstably.
As a result, pair from level of opening on1,3733 came down to a minimum of 1,3583, having finished the day around 1,36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on a level of 1,35610.
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Yesterday investors have been waiting for the results of FED meeting and now continue to digest results of it, trying to find in the text anything which can outline when QE-3 program will start to be reduced. A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but already in January 2014 by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for full turning by September, 2014.
American news do not really bother investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033,9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18,67%%.
However it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular a situation with euro strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on a further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned to be quite weak – only increased uncertainty in relation to Euro.
Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of Euro. Earlier during a week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that decrease in a rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank can again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient level. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that process of recovery proceeds unstably.
As a result, pair from level of opening on1,3733 came down to a minimum of 1,3583, having finished the day around 1,36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on a level of 1,35610.
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