The European indices seems more confident than the American ones

The situation in the stock markets is developing quite ambiguously. Opposition between Russia, the US, and Europe, still puts pressure upon the markets. Additionally, published statistical data didn't show uniform dynamics. Moreover, European leaders already began to manipulate information to put pressure upon the European currency and to contain its further growth.

Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease. Orders for goods of long use in February increased by 2,2%, which appeared to be significantly higher than forecasts, which assumed a growth of only 1%. At the same time, January’s indicator was reconsidered towards a fall from minus 1,0% to minus 1,3%.

The fall of the indices was also promoted by the statements of the U.S. President in Brussels. Obama stated that the actions of Russia deserve general condemnation, and that the situation in Ukraine could become worse. As a result, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, went down by 0,60% to the level of 16268,99 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, decreased by 0,70% and reached a level of 1852,56 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a minus by 1,43% and dropped down to the level of 4173,58 points.

The European trading session, which took place before the American one, was much more successful. The British FTSE 100 rose by 0,01%, the French CAC 40 increased by 0,94%, and the German DAX went into plus on 1,18%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by 0,7% and was closed on a level of 330,93 points.

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The Published Statistics Gave Support To The Markets

Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main indices for the first time in the last 3 days. In general, the growth of the indices was promoted by the publication of positive statistical data.

The index of consumer confidence in March increased much more than expected, from the revised 78,3 points up to 82,3 points. Sales of new houses in February, meanwhile, were reduced from the reconsidered 0,455 million, to 0,440 million.

As a result, the indicator of blue chips, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, raised by 0,56% to the level of 16367,88 points. The index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,44% reaching the level of 1865,62 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a plus by 0,19% and finished the trading session on a level of 4234,27 points.

Among the presented macroeconomic statistical data in Europe, it should be noted that February results coincided with forecasts of analysts on consumer inflation of Great Britain, which increased by 1,7%, in comparison with a 1,9% growth in January. The target level of Bank of England is based on 2%. The index of business optimism of IFO of Germany for March, meanwhile, appeared at a rate of 110,7 points, whereas economists were expecting 111 points.

Thankfully, due to this, European indices managed to gain even more than the American ones. The key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100 grew by 1,3%, the French CAC 40 increased by 1,59%, and the German DAX went to a plus by 1,63%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, increased by 1,29% and was closed on a level of 328,57 points.

The situation in the commodities market remains stable and is moving in a positive direction. Brent and WTI are adding 0,11% and 0,04% accordingly, traded on prices of $107,11 and $99,23 per barrel. Gold is up by 0,28%, bargaining on a price of $1315,10 per troy ounce. Silver is gaining 0,60% and is traded on a level of $20,10 per troy ounce.

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The Statistics Disappointed Investors And Sent The Markets To A Red Zone

Trading session on Monday, generally took place under pressure of published statistical data, which in Europe and in the U.S. disappointed participants of the markets.

Preliminary data on an index of business activity in the industrial and services sectors of Germany for March made 53,8 and 54 points respectively, in comparison with 54,8 and 55,9 points in February. Meanwhile, similar indicators of the Eurozone made 53,0 and 52,4 points respectively, whereas a month earlier values were at the levels of 53,2 and 52,6 points.

Following the results of the session, the key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100, went down for 0,6%, French CAC 40 lost 1,4%, and German DAX went to a minus for 1,7%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 1,1% and was closed on a level of 324,39 points. PMI index in the USA, counted by research group MarkIt decreased in March up to 55,5 points from 57,1 points in February, reflecting delay of growth rates of business activity in the industry of the USA.

American session continues fall of the European indexes and the indicator of blue chips, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,16% up to the level of 16276,69 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,49% and reached level of 1857,44 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 1,18% and reached a level of 4226,39 points.

World stock markets are still influenced and endure a stress from political opposition of Russia and the countries of Europe and the USA. Yesterday the Big Seven at meeting in the Hague made the decision, that the summit of G8 planned earlier in Sochi will take place in Brussels in the G7 format, without participation of Russia. The decision is made in connection with a situation around Ukraine and will be in force until the Russian side will not change the policy concerning Ukraine and the Crimea.

This week the special attention will be paid to statistics, in particular, to influence of bad weather on statistics. In case, if not a snowfalls in the USA were the reason of weak indicators, and weakening of economy - markets will receive more negative news.

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The First Sanctions Against Russia Have Only Political Character

The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has signed the decree regarding the recognition of the Republic of Crimea. This news is not really positive for world platforms, but didn't affect the markets very negatively after all, as sanctions taken by various countries were rather soft. During the meeting that took place yesterday, Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the European Union introduced visa and financial restrictions for 13 Russian, and 8 Crimean officials.

In turn, the situation on the American platforms was also supported by the publication of strong statistics on industrial production in the country, which, in February, grew by 0,6% showing the maximum growth in six months. The restoration of economic activity of the USA after the cold winter brings optimism and inspires investors. The Dow Jones index grew by 1,13% to the level of 16247,22 points, NASDAQ added 0,81% and reached a level of 4279,95 points, and S&P 500 appeared in the plus by 0,96% finishing the trading day on the level of 1858,83 points.

The stock exchanges of the Asian Pacific Region are also bargaining in the green zone this morning, mainly due to the news of the soft sanctions taken against Russia by the EU and the USA. The Japanese Nikkei index grew by 0,94% so far, the Chinese Shanghai Composite by 0,08%, the Korean KOSPI added 0,91%, and the Hong Kong HANG SENG appeared in the plus by 0,48%.

Stabilization of the geopolitical situation affected the commodities market and is pushing the price of commodities to go down. Brent adds 0,24% and dropped to the level of 106,50$ per barrel, and WTI is increasing by 0,14% and is traded on a level of 97,76$ per barrel. Gold and silver are losing 0,87% and 1,03% accordingly, traded on prices of 1361,00$ and 21,06$ per troy ounce.

Now, the main question remains to be the risk of escalation of the situation in other territories of Ukraine. The insignificance of the sanctions declared yesterday by the US and the European Union could either testify to their unwillingness to break economic relations with Russia, or could be reflecting the sluggishness of the western bureaucracy.

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The Majority Of The Population Of Crimea Voted For Accession To Russia

The question concerning Crimea still remains on the agenda. According to the preliminary results of the referendum, which already passed in Crimea, nearly 96% of the voters who took part in the plebiscite about the status of Crimea, voted for entry of an autonomy within the structure of Russia. However, official authorities of Ukraine, and also leaders of many foreign states, (OSCE and other international organizations) are considering that the referendum has gone against the constitution of the country. However, Russia considers it legitimate.

On the eve of this referendum, the key stock indices of Europe finished the trading session in the red zone. Following the results of the trading session on Friday, the key index of Great Britain, FTSE 100, went down by 0,4%. The French CAC 40 lost 0,8% and the German DAX went to plus by 0,43%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,7% and was closed on a level of 322,23 points. This morning, DAX and CAC 40 are up by 0,64%, FTSE 100 is adding 0,41%.

The remaining situation is also having an effect on the commodities market, where precious metals are increasing in price. Gold is up by 0,06%, and platinum grows by 0,44%, traded on the levels of 1379,80$ and 1476,10$ per troy ounce accordingly. Silver is down by just 0,02% on a level of 21,41$ per troy ounce.

Prices of oil, in the meantime, are falling. Brent is down by 0,50% on a price of 107,67$ per barrel, and WTI is losing 0,21% on a level of 98,35$ per barrel.

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The Negative Statistics And Nervousness Concerning Ukraine, Still Presses On The Markets

The markets seem to be stiffened with expectations or fears due to the pressure from various events, and seem unable to find the opportunity to find ground for movement in one direction or another. The Ukrainian factor still puts pressure upon world platforms. Victor Yanukovych speech, which took place yesterday, did not become a sensation, but, at the same time, did not minimize uncertainty in the markets. The international disputes on the legitimacy of occurring events remain in the spotlight. In the meantime, the process of separation of Crimea continues to develop. Yesterday, the Supreme Council of the autonomy adopted the declaration of independence of the republic.

Published macroeconomic statistics in the Eurozone also disappointed investors. Growth of industrial production of Great Britain in January made 0.1% for the month and 2,9% for the year, when analysts were predicting 0,2% and 3,0% respectively. At the same time, the surplus of the trade balance of Germany was reduced in January from 18,3 billion euro a month earlier, to 17,2 billion euro, which was worse than market expectations of 17,7 billion euro.

As a result, the trading session in Europe finished with the British FTSE 100 falling by 0,06%, the French CAC 40 by 0,48%, and the German DAX increasing by 0,46%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by less than 0,1%, having closed on a mark of 337,28 points.

The attention of investors was also drawn towards the statistics from China, where the export in the country was reduced in February by 18%, which warmed up fears concerning the rates of its economic growth. This news pushed the American indices to go down, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index weakened by 0,41%, closing on a level of 16351,25 points. The index of the wide market, S&P 500, went to a minus by 0,51% to the level of 1867,63 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, fell by 0,63% to a level of 4307,19 points.

Reuters reports that the Chinese Central Bank could, for the first time since 2012, reduce norms of reservation for banks, if rates of economic growth will fall lower than 7,5%. The following big block of statistics from China is expected tomorrow - data on retails and industrial production for February.

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The Positive Statistics From The Labor Market Supported The Markets

On the last day of the first trading week of the month, as always, it was marked with the publication of one of the most important macroeconomic statistical reports of the United States - data on the labor market from the Ministry of Labor of the USA, as well as the change of employment in the non-agricultural sector of the country.

The published data appeared to be better than expectations of 151 thousand, making 175 thousand. According to experts, labor employment in February could've proceeded more actively if not for the extreme weather conditions in many states of the country, which saw people spending twice as much time in order to get to work, and experiencing serious transport difficulties. Thus, there is hope that the decrease in the indicator had a seasonal nature, and the situation in the sector will continue to stabilize. In the meantime, unemployment rate grew to 6.7% from 6.6% in January.

As a result, the Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 0.19% to the level of 16452.72 points, and the increase over the week made 0.8%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by just 0.05%, having closed at the level of 1878.04 points, and gained 1.0% throughout the week. The Nasdaq Composite index decreased by 0.37% to the value of 4336.22 points, having added 0.7% within the week.

Commodities opened the trading week in the red zone. Gold was also falling in price on Friday, as positive data on employment, most likely, will give the FED grounds to reduce the QE-3 program once again, at the same volume at the following meeting. Even gold gained 1.3% for the last week, and this morning the price of the precious metal is falling by 0.50% and is traded on a level of 1331.58$ per troy ounce. Silver is losing even more – 1.14%, bargaining next to the level of 20.69$ per troy ounce.

Brent and WTI are losing 0.96% and 1.28% accordingly, traded on prices of 107.42$ and 100.69$ per barrel.

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Meeting Of The European Central Bank Is The Center Of Attention

According to the published data in the Eurozone, the index of business activity in the services sector rose in February to 52.6 points, from 51.7 points a month earlier. Retail sales grew in January by 1.6% after a fall of 1.3% in December. Besides that, gross domestic product in the Eurozone, according to the revised data, increased in the fourth quarter by 0.3% at the quarterly expression, and 0.5% at the yearly expression, which coincided with preliminary data and expectations of the majority of analysts.

Following the results of the trading session, the British FTSE 100 receded by 0.71%, the French CAC 40 became 0.11% easier, and the German DAX went to a minus by 0.49%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased, in turn, by less than 0.1%, having closed on a mark of 337.06 points. It should be noted that the markets of Belgium, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and Scandinavia, were closed in the "green" zone.

As for the statistics from the USA, the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere made 51.6 points in February, while analysts predicted a result of 53.5 points. Data on the labor market also disappointed investors, employment of ADP made 139 thousand, which was worse than expectations of analysts on a level of 160 thousand. Additionally, the previous value of the indicator was reconsidered to the smaller amount, from 175 thousand to 127 thousand.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips, Dow Jones Industrial Average, went down by 0.22% to the level of 16360.18 points, the index of the wide market, Standard&Poor's 500, decreased by just 0.01% reaching a level of 1873.81 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to plus on 0.14% and reached the level of 4357.97 points.

The chairman of the FED, Janet Yellen, declared yesterday that some time may pass before the regulator will be able to see positive statistical data supporting positive development of economic conditions. In the speech, Yellen noted that the FED needs to perform a huge amount of difficult work in order to achieve target indicators on inflation and unemployment, and also restore damage from the financial crisis. Further decisions regarding the QE3 program are going to be taken during the next meeting of the FED, which will take place on the 18th-19th of March.

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Tension Round The Conflict Between Russia And Ukraine Presses On The Markets

Yesterday’s trading session took place under pressure from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The main Russian indices lost more than 10%-12%, and shares of the largest companies which are counted as a part of the indices, lost from 5% to 20%. This morning at the opening of the trading session, the situation seemed to be stabilizing slightly, but the perspectives of the Russian market on the short-term prospective are not so bright. MICEX is up by 2.11% and RTS is increasing by 2.54%, shares of the companies are, in majority, in the green zone, but are adding insignificant amounts in comparison to yesterday’s fall.

The trading session in the United States was also influenced by negative moods surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, and indices closed the trading day in the red zone. Even good macroeconomic statistical data that was published could not give enough support to the market. Growth rates of personal income in January made 0.3%, while personal expenses 0.4%, at average forecasts of these indicators on 0.2% and 0.1%. Expenses on construction for January increased by 0.1%, though a decrease by 0.5% was expected, and December's growth rate was reconsidered towards a significant increase from 0.1% to 1.5%. At last, the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in February made 53.2, at average expectations on the level of 52.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.94% to the level of 16168.03 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.74% to the level of 1845.73 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a minus by 0.72% and reached a level of 4277.30 points.

The same picture was observed during the European session. Improvement of the statistics on the industry in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and Germany, were still unable to give considerable support to the exchanges. The British FTSE 100 index went down by 1.49% to a level of 6708.35 points, the Swiss SMI lost 2.29% and reached the level of 8281.01 points, and the German DAX decreased by 3.44% to the level of 9358.89 points.

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The Russian Market Is Captured By A Panic

The end of the 2013 and the beginning of 2014 can be characterized with the fact that the markets are trying to manage to cope with unforeseen situations and news from different corners of the earth. Markets just managed more or less to stabilize situation in the emerging markets of the developing countries, after FED made the decision to start cutting off the program of quantitative easing, then new problems are starting to fall upon the markets of the different countries.

The whole world watched more than a month a situation developing in Ukraine, which brought to weakening of the Ukrainian currency and destabilization of the financial situation of the country. There are opinions, that the country default, is almost inevitable. In addition to it the situation in Ukraine led to collapse in the Russian market, which strongly gave up on Friday and continued to decrease today at the opening of the trading session.

MICEX at this moment is losing 8,26%, traded on a level of the 1325,33 points; RTS is down for 9,59%, traded on a level of the 1146,13 points. All the stocks of the Russian companies are traded in minus, Gazprom is down for 11,39%, VTB bank is losing 11,79%, Sberbank decreasing for 8,70%. All the other companies are down for more than 5%. Russian ruble is very weak and in relation to EUR traded above 50 rubles. One of the Russian banks in the region of the Krasnoyarsk, Sibirskiy bank, has put a sell level of euro on a price of 60 rubles. At present in the market simply reigns the panic.

In turn, American indexes on Friday managed to close weak in a moderate plus. The Dow Jones industrial average index raised on 0,30% up to the level of 16321,71 points, the S&P 500 index raised on 0,28%, having closed at the level of 1859,45 points and just the Nasdaq Composite index decreased on 0,25% up to value of 4308,12 points.

Statistical data on GDP of the country disappointed the market and has made 2,4% at expected 2,5%. However, published then final index of consumer confidence of Michigan university which raised in February to 81,6 points from 81,2 points in January encouraged investors, having surpassed both consensus forecast of 81,3 points, and preliminary value of 81,2 points.

Asian stock markets are traded in a red zone and are losing around 1%, European stock markets also started trading session in a red zone, German DAX is losing 2,38%, French CAC40 decreasing for 0,76%.

The only positive development can be observed on the commodities market, where Brent and WTI are increasing for 1,41% and 1,25% traded on a price of 110,17$ and 103,16$ for barrel. Gold is increasing for 1,91% up to the level of 1346,91$ and silver is up for 1,73%, bargaining next to the level of 21,61$ for troy ounce.


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