Oil prices hit a six-month high as shares fall on fears of a military attack on Syria. Especially emerging markets assets were hit hard and world shares slid for a second day in row. Investors were seeking safe haven investments and gold has been back to shine over the last days. Gold prices reached USD 1430, but fell back to 1418 an ounce try. Brent crude reached USD 117 a barrel on Wednesday morning, but fell back to 115 levels.
Neighbouring Turkey which has stated its willingness to support a military action against the Assad-regime without approval from the UN security Council, is one of the emerging markets hardest hit by the uncertainty. Both the Turkish lira and Indian rupee fell to new record lows against the dollar. The USD has traded steady against the Euro at 1.3336 , but has fallen below 98 yen a dollar against the Japanese yen trading at 97,63.
Even if the real effects on the markets on an eventual hit against Syria remain uncertain, oil analysts are speculating that oil prices could jump as high as USD 125 a barrel. New York crude, NYMNEX, was trading at the highest level seen in a year when it jumped to USD 111. It has since fallen back to below USD 110.
Worries over Syria largely shrugged off investor’s concern about euro zone bank lending contracting in July. This highlighted the euro zone’s nascent recovery and might keep pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain an expansive monetary policy. The British pound slipped both against the dollar and the Euro. Bank of England reaffirmed its attention to keep interest rates low until 2016. A condition for a ra rise in interest rate is accordning to new Governor, Mark Carney, that unemployment falls to 7 %%, a similar goal set by the US FED.
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2013/08/29
2013/08/28
Oil, gold and Silver skyrocket
Western warmongerings had oil, gold and silver prices to skyrocket on Tuesday. US and allied envoys told rebels fighting Bashar-al-Assad that Western powers would attack Syria within days. The UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, stressed that the most likely day of attack is Thursday. Brent crude jumped to two dollars USD 113,46 a barrel on the news. Gold and silver continue to raise as safe havens. Gold reached USD 1420 adding new 25 dollars during Tuesday’s trade. Silver trades at USD 24,65 up 20 %% from levels seen only a couple of weeks ago.
Syria is probably going to be attacked by cruise missiles in what Western observers say are aimed at teaching President Assad and Iran a “lesson” for defying the West. The aim is presumably not to turn the tide in the civil war which over the last months have given President Assad’s forces the upper hand. NATO air strikes changed the course of the Libyan civil war. The prelude to an eventual attack on Syria is a blue copy of the US and British invasion of Iraq and the NATO-bombings of Serbia in connection with the “liberation” of Kosovo.
Along with Brent US crude, NYMEX, jumped to USD 108,50 a barrel. Western powers are taking a great gamble in attacking Syria. A military action in Syria might result in spreading chaos to the oil-producing countries in the Middle East in spite of the fact that Syria itself is not a major oil producer. Libyan production has already dropped 60 %% and down to 665 000 barrels a day. Key shipping routes for crude oil such as Akaba and the Suez canal areas well located in the area.
A military action might also put stress on US oil storages. Commercial crude stock piles were expected to have fallen last week due to heavy consumption of gas during the end of the holiday season. Increased oil prices would put added stress on a US economy considering to terminate using the money printing press by tapering the bond buying program. Data on homes sales and durable gods over the last two days, have shown that continued monetary easing might be necessary to keep growth and the economy on the right track.
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Syria is probably going to be attacked by cruise missiles in what Western observers say are aimed at teaching President Assad and Iran a “lesson” for defying the West. The aim is presumably not to turn the tide in the civil war which over the last months have given President Assad’s forces the upper hand. NATO air strikes changed the course of the Libyan civil war. The prelude to an eventual attack on Syria is a blue copy of the US and British invasion of Iraq and the NATO-bombings of Serbia in connection with the “liberation” of Kosovo.
Along with Brent US crude, NYMEX, jumped to USD 108,50 a barrel. Western powers are taking a great gamble in attacking Syria. A military action in Syria might result in spreading chaos to the oil-producing countries in the Middle East in spite of the fact that Syria itself is not a major oil producer. Libyan production has already dropped 60 %% and down to 665 000 barrels a day. Key shipping routes for crude oil such as Akaba and the Suez canal areas well located in the area.
A military action might also put stress on US oil storages. Commercial crude stock piles were expected to have fallen last week due to heavy consumption of gas during the end of the holiday season. Increased oil prices would put added stress on a US economy considering to terminate using the money printing press by tapering the bond buying program. Data on homes sales and durable gods over the last two days, have shown that continued monetary easing might be necessary to keep growth and the economy on the right track.
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2013/08/27
Durable goods orders drop
Durable or capital gods orders in the United States dropped 7,3 %% in July, and put new questions marks over the economy at the beginning of the third quarter. The demand for goods ranging from aircraft to computers and defence equipment fell. This is the biggest decline since last August. De decline in durable gods are coming on the top of negative housing figures published last Friday indicating a weaker housing market than expected.
It is likely that the failing durable gods numbers would give rise to new speculations on when US Federal Reserve (FED) eventually would start tapering its bond buying program. It has been indicated that tapering would start already in December. Based on the latest figures it is unlikely that tapering might start earlier than at the end of 2013. The fall in durable gods orders had an immediate impact on stock futures. Also yield on US treasuries fell.
Oil prices have continued to rise on the escalation of US involvement in Syria. Brant crude is trading close to USD 111 a barrel. US Defence secretary Chuck Hagel are reportedly going to discuss a possible military intervention in Syria with its British and French counterparts on the alleged use of chemical weapons. The possibility for a direct Western involvement could have serious impacts on the world stock markets and trigger the market to continue its present downward trend.
The US dollar traded down against Japanese yen on Monday after new uncertainties arose to when tapering eventually would start. USD/JPY trades at 98,14 yen a doillar. Euro/USD has been flat during Monday at 1.3370.
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It is likely that the failing durable gods numbers would give rise to new speculations on when US Federal Reserve (FED) eventually would start tapering its bond buying program. It has been indicated that tapering would start already in December. Based on the latest figures it is unlikely that tapering might start earlier than at the end of 2013. The fall in durable gods orders had an immediate impact on stock futures. Also yield on US treasuries fell.
Oil prices have continued to rise on the escalation of US involvement in Syria. Brant crude is trading close to USD 111 a barrel. US Defence secretary Chuck Hagel are reportedly going to discuss a possible military intervention in Syria with its British and French counterparts on the alleged use of chemical weapons. The possibility for a direct Western involvement could have serious impacts on the world stock markets and trigger the market to continue its present downward trend.
The US dollar traded down against Japanese yen on Monday after new uncertainties arose to when tapering eventually would start. USD/JPY trades at 98,14 yen a doillar. Euro/USD has been flat during Monday at 1.3370.
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2013/08/26
Gold and silver skyrocket
Gold and silver skyrocketed on Friday. Gold added USD 21,70 and ended at 1397,80 after breaking through the 1400 level during the session. Silver added 4 %% to close at 24,08 after trading as high as USD 24,24 an ounce try. These quotations represent the highest seen for precious metals in weeks. The technical charts point to further gains. It is therefore great likely the strength in prices would spill over into this week’s trading.
A weaker than expected July new sales home report which decreased 5 %% since June, created new bewilderment in the markets. The July minutes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) created new uncertainty regarding when FED eventually will start tapering its bond buying program of USD 85 Billion a month. This gave precious metals a strong boost. Gold broke out of the technical resistance in USD 1377 – 1380 helped by increased silver prices on its way up.
The disappointing housing numbers had also a negative impact on the dollar. The new housing data give rise to new speculations when tapering will start. September seems now unlikely and currency analysts are point to December as more realistic. It is generally believed that tapering of central bank’s monetary easing would lead to an increase in interest rates and a stronger dollar. The dollar basket, DXY, weighed against six major currencies decreased. The dollar lost ground against bot yen and EURO. EURO/USD climbed above 1.34 on the housing numbers.
A second reading of German gross domestic product confirms that Europe’s biggest economy rose 0,7 %% in July. This augurs good for Angel Merkel’s re-election opportunities in September and for better perspective for growth in the Euro zone. Despite of temporary decrease dollar is much favoured by investors over the yen for the rest of 2013. The Euro has also gained healthy against the yen over the recent week.
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A weaker than expected July new sales home report which decreased 5 %% since June, created new bewilderment in the markets. The July minutes from the US Federal Reserve (FED) created new uncertainty regarding when FED eventually will start tapering its bond buying program of USD 85 Billion a month. This gave precious metals a strong boost. Gold broke out of the technical resistance in USD 1377 – 1380 helped by increased silver prices on its way up.
The disappointing housing numbers had also a negative impact on the dollar. The new housing data give rise to new speculations when tapering will start. September seems now unlikely and currency analysts are point to December as more realistic. It is generally believed that tapering of central bank’s monetary easing would lead to an increase in interest rates and a stronger dollar. The dollar basket, DXY, weighed against six major currencies decreased. The dollar lost ground against bot yen and EURO. EURO/USD climbed above 1.34 on the housing numbers.
A second reading of German gross domestic product confirms that Europe’s biggest economy rose 0,7 %% in July. This augurs good for Angel Merkel’s re-election opportunities in September and for better perspective for growth in the Euro zone. Despite of temporary decrease dollar is much favoured by investors over the yen for the rest of 2013. The Euro has also gained healthy against the yen over the recent week.
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2013/08/23
Minutes create new uncertainty
The minutes from the end of July meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) which was published Wednesday night did not give markets the clarity they were looking for. The minutes repeat the same generalities markets have been fed with over the last half year. Tapering is going to come, but there is no clear time table for when FED would start to slow down their bond buying program. Whether is going to start this autumn or the first half of 2014, is still an open question. Everything hangs on the development I American economy.
Banks and financial institutions gambling on more clear guidance, were disappointed. The USD is gaining some ground against other currencies and the yield on US bonds continue to raise. The dollar DXY, a basket of six major currencies weighed against USD, was up 0,5 %%. US treasury yields reached a two-year high of 2,936 percent. Euro/USD trades down at 1.3321. The Japanese yen is weaker trading at 98,64 yen a dollar. Brent is steady around USD 110 a barrel. Gold trades at USD 1371.
The higher yields have over the last weeks led to a repatriation of funds back to US from emerging markets helping to support the dollar which in short term looks very bullish. Tapering and termination of printing dollar, shall mean tighter credit condition and higher interest rate. Many emerging markets have big exposures in US dollar and would be faced with big credit problems with a combination of increased interest rates and a stronger USD.
The effects of this trend Is already felt in Asia where the Indian rupee is under extreme downward pressure. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines are as Turkey strongly hit. The Turkish lira has lost 4 %% against the dollar only this month. Many analysts fear that Asian countries in a short time would be faced with the same financial and economic crisis as during the Asian crisis at the of the 1990’ies. This would have a devastating effect also globally.
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Banks and financial institutions gambling on more clear guidance, were disappointed. The USD is gaining some ground against other currencies and the yield on US bonds continue to raise. The dollar DXY, a basket of six major currencies weighed against USD, was up 0,5 %%. US treasury yields reached a two-year high of 2,936 percent. Euro/USD trades down at 1.3321. The Japanese yen is weaker trading at 98,64 yen a dollar. Brent is steady around USD 110 a barrel. Gold trades at USD 1371.
The higher yields have over the last weeks led to a repatriation of funds back to US from emerging markets helping to support the dollar which in short term looks very bullish. Tapering and termination of printing dollar, shall mean tighter credit condition and higher interest rate. Many emerging markets have big exposures in US dollar and would be faced with big credit problems with a combination of increased interest rates and a stronger USD.
The effects of this trend Is already felt in Asia where the Indian rupee is under extreme downward pressure. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines are as Turkey strongly hit. The Turkish lira has lost 4 %% against the dollar only this month. Many analysts fear that Asian countries in a short time would be faced with the same financial and economic crisis as during the Asian crisis at the of the 1990’ies. This would have a devastating effect also globally.
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2013/08/22
Home sales jump to 3-years high
Just on the eve of the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) presentation of their monthly minutes, US home resoles rose to their highest level in three years. Home sales for July suggested that a sharp increase in borrowing costs is only having a limited impact on the housing market recovery. Home sales jumped 6,5 %% to an annual rate of 5,39 million units. Analysts had forecasted a much smaller increase.
The currencies fluctuated heavily during Wednesday before FED-minutes presentation. Euro/USD jumped above 1.34 and fall back to 1.3386 with major banks taking big short exposures betting on a stronger dollar and steep falls in both Euro and Yen. Emerging market currencies especially in Asia have in the last days fallen rather dramatically against the USD with the Indian rupee being the big loser. Oil prices are relatively steady with Brent crude trading below USD 110. Gold rose to USD 1376, but loses ground before FED minute presentation.
Greece’s financial obligations are again under heavy scrutiny. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated on Tuesday that Greece would need a third bailout. His election campaign statement came the day before today’s arrival of European Central Bank (ECB) officials to Athens to scrutinize Greece’s progress in meeting its international bailout obligations. Since 2010 Greece has been bailed out with 240 million Euros by the ECB, International Monetary Fund and European Union.
Yields on Greek bond rose immediately to new yearly highs after the Greek government lately has tried to give the impression that a turnaround in the economy is starting to take place. Greece has for the last 6 – 7 years been through a dramatic recession. The austerity measures ordained by the “Troika” of ECB, IMF and EU, have created a record high number of unemployment. The anti-austerity opposition was quick to seize on Schaeuble’s comments pointing to yet another round of painful austerity.
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The currencies fluctuated heavily during Wednesday before FED-minutes presentation. Euro/USD jumped above 1.34 and fall back to 1.3386 with major banks taking big short exposures betting on a stronger dollar and steep falls in both Euro and Yen. Emerging market currencies especially in Asia have in the last days fallen rather dramatically against the USD with the Indian rupee being the big loser. Oil prices are relatively steady with Brent crude trading below USD 110. Gold rose to USD 1376, but loses ground before FED minute presentation.
Greece’s financial obligations are again under heavy scrutiny. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated on Tuesday that Greece would need a third bailout. His election campaign statement came the day before today’s arrival of European Central Bank (ECB) officials to Athens to scrutinize Greece’s progress in meeting its international bailout obligations. Since 2010 Greece has been bailed out with 240 million Euros by the ECB, International Monetary Fund and European Union.
Yields on Greek bond rose immediately to new yearly highs after the Greek government lately has tried to give the impression that a turnaround in the economy is starting to take place. Greece has for the last 6 – 7 years been through a dramatic recession. The austerity measures ordained by the “Troika” of ECB, IMF and EU, have created a record high number of unemployment. The anti-austerity opposition was quick to seize on Schaeuble’s comments pointing to yet another round of painful austerity.
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2013/08/21
FED Sends Markets To One Month Low
World shares sank to their lowest level in more than a month after disappointing sessions in New York yesterday, along with disappointment when trading started in Asia on Tuesday morning. The sell off continued in Europe, and emerging markets saw funds pouring out. Global markets are worried and at unease with expected cuts in US Stimulus and related gains in bond yields, leading to investors being on edge. Oil and precious metal prices have fallen with the Dollar under pressure. EUR/USD stands at 1.3410. USD/JPY is at 97.50.
European stocks were down with the French CAC as the biggest loser at minus 1.35 %%. The FTSE London-index dropped 0.57 %% while the German DAX was down 1.06 %%. The Russian indices suffered similar losses. The losses in Europe are following a fourth day of straight falls on both Wall street and in Asia. India is also hit hard by a dramatic fall in the Rupee in relation to USD. The Japanese Nikkei fell 2.7 %%.
US Federal Reserve (FED) shall publish their minutes from the end of July meeting later on today. It is expected that the minutes could offer hints on when FED will start winding down its USD 85 billion-a-month bond buying program. Uncertainty regarding what is going to happen next has recently driven up bond market borrowing costs. This has sparked a sell off in riskier assets as stocks.
Brent crude, which has been steady above USD 110 a barrel, fell below this level on Tuesday due to nervousness about the effect of a halt in monetary easing. Oil prices are, however, supported by export problems in Libya and the continued unrest in Egypt. Western powers are threatening to withdraw their economic assistance, but Saudi Arabia stated yesterday that they would step in to avoid any collapse of the Egyptian economy.
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European stocks were down with the French CAC as the biggest loser at minus 1.35 %%. The FTSE London-index dropped 0.57 %% while the German DAX was down 1.06 %%. The Russian indices suffered similar losses. The losses in Europe are following a fourth day of straight falls on both Wall street and in Asia. India is also hit hard by a dramatic fall in the Rupee in relation to USD. The Japanese Nikkei fell 2.7 %%.
US Federal Reserve (FED) shall publish their minutes from the end of July meeting later on today. It is expected that the minutes could offer hints on when FED will start winding down its USD 85 billion-a-month bond buying program. Uncertainty regarding what is going to happen next has recently driven up bond market borrowing costs. This has sparked a sell off in riskier assets as stocks.
Brent crude, which has been steady above USD 110 a barrel, fell below this level on Tuesday due to nervousness about the effect of a halt in monetary easing. Oil prices are, however, supported by export problems in Libya and the continued unrest in Egypt. Western powers are threatening to withdraw their economic assistance, but Saudi Arabia stated yesterday that they would step in to avoid any collapse of the Egyptian economy.
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2013/08/20
Steady Dollar Before FED Minutes On Wednesday
The Dollar held steady on Monday as investors refrained from bets on the currency before the publication of the US Federal Reserves (FED) minutes on Wednesday. It is expected that the minutes might give a more clear indication on the pace and timing of FED’s plan to trim its bond buying program. Analyst consensus is that tapering could start in September. The Dollar index, DXY, was flat. EUR/USD trades at 1.3348 and USD/JPY is at 97.97.
Higher yields on Dollar denominated bonds have made the Dollar more attractive over the last few days, but this has been blunted by a promising improvement in the Euro zone and UK economies which have underpinned the Euro and Sterling. Data last week showed that both the German and French economies were growing faster than expected in the second quarter. EU manufacturing and services data are going to be published on Wednesday and give a more clear indication as to whether the Euro zone is pulling out of recession.
The data will have an impact on the strength of the Euro, which is expected to falter against the Dollar in the upcoming trading sessions. That could mean that Dollar would start to attract demand against the Euro. The Dollar might also be in for a new test against the Japanese Yen. If the August 15th peak of 98.66 Yen is broken, there might be retest on the August high of 99.955 Yen. Oil and precious metal prices are keeping steady at the high levels seen on Friday. Brent trades at USD 110.55 a barrel and gold stands at USD 1376.
Stock markets in Europe continue to be under pressure with France, Germany, and England indexes trading down. There was a weak start in the equity market in Asia with Asian Pacific index in red territory the first day of the week. The unrest in Egypt continues with new clashes between Mursi-supporters and the police, claiming an unconfirmed 1000 lives taken until now. US politicians claim there has been a halt in the US billion Dollar military help to Egypt.
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Higher yields on Dollar denominated bonds have made the Dollar more attractive over the last few days, but this has been blunted by a promising improvement in the Euro zone and UK economies which have underpinned the Euro and Sterling. Data last week showed that both the German and French economies were growing faster than expected in the second quarter. EU manufacturing and services data are going to be published on Wednesday and give a more clear indication as to whether the Euro zone is pulling out of recession.
The data will have an impact on the strength of the Euro, which is expected to falter against the Dollar in the upcoming trading sessions. That could mean that Dollar would start to attract demand against the Euro. The Dollar might also be in for a new test against the Japanese Yen. If the August 15th peak of 98.66 Yen is broken, there might be retest on the August high of 99.955 Yen. Oil and precious metal prices are keeping steady at the high levels seen on Friday. Brent trades at USD 110.55 a barrel and gold stands at USD 1376.
Stock markets in Europe continue to be under pressure with France, Germany, and England indexes trading down. There was a weak start in the equity market in Asia with Asian Pacific index in red territory the first day of the week. The unrest in Egypt continues with new clashes between Mursi-supporters and the police, claiming an unconfirmed 1000 lives taken until now. US politicians claim there has been a halt in the US billion Dollar military help to Egypt.
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2013/08/19
Equities struggle – Gold reaches 1373
While equities worldwide struggled against US federal Reserve (FED) tapering concerns, oil and silver rallied at the end of last week. Gold rose to a two-month high on Friday. Silver saw its strongest weekly performance in five years with a 13 percent rise; strongly indicating that the wave of selling in precious metals over the last half year, has come to at least to a temporarily halt. Gold rose 50 dollar during the week to hit a peak of USD 1373 a troy ounce.
Precious metal prices were helped by a weaker dollar. Euro/USD has traded steady above 1.33 during the week with good news coming from the Euro zone. Both France and Germany presented positive growth figures which, in spite, of weak fundamentals are interpreted as the Euro zone might be coming out of recession. Data on Thursday showed that investors in Japan and China led large sell-off in US treasuries following FED statements on tapering in June.
China has over the last half year strongly increased its gold holdings seemingly in an effort to diversify its investments in US treasuries. China is seen to have built. up gold reserves to become more independent of both USD and Euro. Both currencies are regarded as vulnerable. With eyes to the futures – 10 – 20 years perspective – China seem interested in building up the Chinese currency as a competitive international reserve currency.
Last week saw the first net inflow into gold backed exchange traded funds so called EFTs sine 2012. EFTs sold 402 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2013, double the gold production of South Africa. Over the last weeks gold short positions have been reduced. This is combined with a surge in Chinese gold buying which rose 87 %% from 2012 to 386 tonnes. Retail buying in India and central banks buying are also boosting gold prices. Many traders remain, however, gloomy and ask how long the rally in precious metals will continue.
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Precious metal prices were helped by a weaker dollar. Euro/USD has traded steady above 1.33 during the week with good news coming from the Euro zone. Both France and Germany presented positive growth figures which, in spite, of weak fundamentals are interpreted as the Euro zone might be coming out of recession. Data on Thursday showed that investors in Japan and China led large sell-off in US treasuries following FED statements on tapering in June.
China has over the last half year strongly increased its gold holdings seemingly in an effort to diversify its investments in US treasuries. China is seen to have built. up gold reserves to become more independent of both USD and Euro. Both currencies are regarded as vulnerable. With eyes to the futures – 10 – 20 years perspective – China seem interested in building up the Chinese currency as a competitive international reserve currency.
Last week saw the first net inflow into gold backed exchange traded funds so called EFTs sine 2012. EFTs sold 402 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2013, double the gold production of South Africa. Over the last weeks gold short positions have been reduced. This is combined with a surge in Chinese gold buying which rose 87 %% from 2012 to 386 tonnes. Retail buying in India and central banks buying are also boosting gold prices. Many traders remain, however, gloomy and ask how long the rally in precious metals will continue.
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2013/08/16
Oil Jumps On Egypt Unrest
Oil prices jumped on the tense situation in the Middle East where at least 535 people were killed in a security crackdown in Egypt. Brent and NYMEX, New York crude, climbed to a four-month high on Thursday with Brent reaching USD 111 a barrel. The escalating violence in Egypt might affect the Suez Canal and spread all over a middle East already torn by a two year civil war in Syria, disturbing death tolls and unrest in Oil producing Iraq and Libya.
Egypt has declared a state of emergency. Supporters of the deposed President Mursi have, nevertheless, announced new major demonstrations. Oil storages in the US are shrinking faster than expected. Egypt is a minor crude producer, but home of the strategically important Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. The deadly violence threatens to choke Oil supply routes and have serious consequences for steady Oil supplies from the Middle East.
The Libyan Deputy Oil Minister stated on Thursday that Libya’s Oil production has been reduced by 600 000 barrels a day. Iraq expects to slash supplies with 600 000 barrels a day in September. US crude inventories fell 2.8 million barrels with stocks at the lowest level seen since 2012. As long as the situation in the Middle Eastern area is kept under some control, Brent doesn’t seem to have a potential to climb higher than to USD 113 – 114. Europe’s top Oil company, Royal Dutch Shell, has temporarily closed its offices in Egypt.
The USD has come under new pressure on continued uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve (FED) might start to taper its bond buying program. Retailer Macy’s department store, delivered disappointing results on Wednesday, leading to new question marks regarding the healthiness and growth of the US economy. EUR/USD is at 1.3299 and USD/JPY trades at 98.15. Precious metals, Gold and Silver, have regained some of their safe-haven status and have steadied on levels not seen in months.
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Egypt has declared a state of emergency. Supporters of the deposed President Mursi have, nevertheless, announced new major demonstrations. Oil storages in the US are shrinking faster than expected. Egypt is a minor crude producer, but home of the strategically important Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline. The deadly violence threatens to choke Oil supply routes and have serious consequences for steady Oil supplies from the Middle East.
The Libyan Deputy Oil Minister stated on Thursday that Libya’s Oil production has been reduced by 600 000 barrels a day. Iraq expects to slash supplies with 600 000 barrels a day in September. US crude inventories fell 2.8 million barrels with stocks at the lowest level seen since 2012. As long as the situation in the Middle Eastern area is kept under some control, Brent doesn’t seem to have a potential to climb higher than to USD 113 – 114. Europe’s top Oil company, Royal Dutch Shell, has temporarily closed its offices in Egypt.
The USD has come under new pressure on continued uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve (FED) might start to taper its bond buying program. Retailer Macy’s department store, delivered disappointing results on Wednesday, leading to new question marks regarding the healthiness and growth of the US economy. EUR/USD is at 1.3299 and USD/JPY trades at 98.15. Precious metals, Gold and Silver, have regained some of their safe-haven status and have steadied on levels not seen in months.
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2013/08/15
US stocks decline on Macy’s sales
The US stock indices fell yesterday night after retailer Macys Inc quarterly results disappointed. This gave new urgency to investors debate on the timing and pace of reductions in the Federal Reserve’s (FED) bond purchases. The department store operator Macy’s shares fell 4,4 %% leading to a loss in S&P. Also Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended in red territory after Macy’s disappointing sales.
In Europe both France and Germany economies grew faster than the United States in the second quarter of 2013 pulling the euro zone out of its longest recession seen in years. The increased pace was primarily driven by renewed business and consumer spending in two largest economies inside the euro zone. The euro zone economy continues, however, to be fragile with countries as Spain and Italy struggling. The figures published on Wednesday show a 0, 3 %% growth.
Austria and Finland also presented positive growth figures while the Cyprus economy contracted 1,4 %% in the second quarter after the international bailout in March. Laiki, the second biggest bank, was forced to close and the Bank of Cyprus and Hellenic Bank suffered heavy losses on big deposits. In spite of some positive signs inside the Euro zone the economic and fiscal problems seen in the periphery and especially in Southern Europe indicate that the euro zone is in for a bumpy and uneven recovery.
The positive news from France and Germany had little impact on the currencies. Euro/USD traded at 1.3258 after an earlier high on 1.3278. Traders put stop/loss orders on 1.3230. A break could see a slip to 1.3155. The DXY dollar basket was marginally down after climbing one percent since its low on August 8th.Oil prices fell during yesterday, but precious metals, gold and silver, demonstrate a clear positive upward trend.
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In Europe both France and Germany economies grew faster than the United States in the second quarter of 2013 pulling the euro zone out of its longest recession seen in years. The increased pace was primarily driven by renewed business and consumer spending in two largest economies inside the euro zone. The euro zone economy continues, however, to be fragile with countries as Spain and Italy struggling. The figures published on Wednesday show a 0, 3 %% growth.
Austria and Finland also presented positive growth figures while the Cyprus economy contracted 1,4 %% in the second quarter after the international bailout in March. Laiki, the second biggest bank, was forced to close and the Bank of Cyprus and Hellenic Bank suffered heavy losses on big deposits. In spite of some positive signs inside the Euro zone the economic and fiscal problems seen in the periphery and especially in Southern Europe indicate that the euro zone is in for a bumpy and uneven recovery.
The positive news from France and Germany had little impact on the currencies. Euro/USD traded at 1.3258 after an earlier high on 1.3278. Traders put stop/loss orders on 1.3230. A break could see a slip to 1.3155. The DXY dollar basket was marginally down after climbing one percent since its low on August 8th.Oil prices fell during yesterday, but precious metals, gold and silver, demonstrate a clear positive upward trend.
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2013/08/14
German optimism fuels Euro zone
US Consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in seven months according to figures presented yesterday. The gauge in consumer spending indicates quicker economic growth, and would strengthen the case for the US Federal Reserve (FED) winding down it USD 85 billion bond monthly bond buying program. Retail sales outside cars, gasoline and building materials rose 0,5 percent in July in line with expectations. Consumer spending is the biggest driver in the US economy.
A jump in Germany’s economic sentiment survey, dovetailed with a rise in the industrial output in the euro zone and the fastest rise in house prices in England in seven years, bolstered renewed optimism also in the European region yesterday. London’s FTSE, Germany’s DAX and the Paris CAC 40 indexes all climbed from 0,3 to 0,8 %%, to lift the broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index to its highest level since mid-May. US exchanges were rising on the retail figures yesterday after four loss making sessions.
Euro/USD stood at 1.3290 before the release of the US-retail figures added to the case for a cut in the Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus already in September. The American dollar is trading higher also in relation to Japanese Yen. USD/JPY is 98.01. Oil prices are up with Brent crude at USD 109,88 a barrel. Gold and silver stay at steady at last days higher levels.
A renewed optimism in the euro zone was yesterday reflected in the debt market. Yields on safe-haven German 10-year government bonds hit their highest level in six weeks. Risk premiums on Italian and Spanish bonds continued to ease. A general improvement In the EU economy seems to take place. The question is when positive signs of improvement eventually would take the Euro zone countries out recession and into sustainable economic growth. Gross Domestic (GDP) growth number expected to grew 0,2 %% when the last quarterly report is published later on Wednesday.
The Asian market opened Tuesday in strong positive territory helped by the Chinese data presented on Monday morning. The weaker Yen had the Nikkei stock exchange to jump 2,6 %%. The other Asian bourses were also up. The positive momentum is expected to continue this morning.
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A jump in Germany’s economic sentiment survey, dovetailed with a rise in the industrial output in the euro zone and the fastest rise in house prices in England in seven years, bolstered renewed optimism also in the European region yesterday. London’s FTSE, Germany’s DAX and the Paris CAC 40 indexes all climbed from 0,3 to 0,8 %%, to lift the broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 index to its highest level since mid-May. US exchanges were rising on the retail figures yesterday after four loss making sessions.
Euro/USD stood at 1.3290 before the release of the US-retail figures added to the case for a cut in the Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus already in September. The American dollar is trading higher also in relation to Japanese Yen. USD/JPY is 98.01. Oil prices are up with Brent crude at USD 109,88 a barrel. Gold and silver stay at steady at last days higher levels.
A renewed optimism in the euro zone was yesterday reflected in the debt market. Yields on safe-haven German 10-year government bonds hit their highest level in six weeks. Risk premiums on Italian and Spanish bonds continued to ease. A general improvement In the EU economy seems to take place. The question is when positive signs of improvement eventually would take the Euro zone countries out recession and into sustainable economic growth. Gross Domestic (GDP) growth number expected to grew 0,2 %% when the last quarterly report is published later on Wednesday.
The Asian market opened Tuesday in strong positive territory helped by the Chinese data presented on Monday morning. The weaker Yen had the Nikkei stock exchange to jump 2,6 %%. The other Asian bourses were also up. The positive momentum is expected to continue this morning.
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2013/08/13
Gold Shines On Stimulus Worries
Stocks headed for the fifth fall in six sessions on Monday, as signs of economic recovery pointed towards a cut in economic stimulus and monetary easing tapering. Safe-haven assets such as precious metals and the Swiss Franc, gained. Gold jumped to USD 1342 an ounce, the highest level seen in months, while Silver gained 3 %% since the end of last week, trading at USD 21.31 an ounce. EUR/USD continues to descend at 1.3288. USD/JPY is steady at 86.87.
Global stock markets have been tiptoeing in August fearing that economic stimulus, the USD 85 billion monthly bond buying program, may come to a halt in September. Signs that China’s slowdown may run its course and expectations that data this week will prove that the Euro zone is pulling out of its longest recession on record, are bolstering hopes that the global economy is back on track. This most probably means an end to monetary easing.
European stocks quickly lost the momentum created by Monday’s better than expected Chinese data, which gave the Asian markets a boost during the night. The major European indices were down as the futures for the US were down. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq lost 0.36 %% in the opening of Monday’s session. Walt Disney, Boeing and JP Morgan were among the biggest losers. Intel and Alcoa were marginally up.
Nikkei in Japan shed 0.7 %% and traded at the lowest level seen since June 28th, after data showed that Japan’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April-June. This prompted investors to cut their risk exposure. The Japanese Yen has gained 5 %% against the Dollar since USD/JPY reached a high of 103 Yen to a Dollar in early spring. The Japanese economy grew 2.6 %% in the second quarter, compared with 3.8 %% in the first quarter of 2013.
Copper was 0.3 %% down after gaining 1.3 %%, a three month high, on Friday. Oil prices, which headed up on the presentation of the Chinese data, dipped 0.5 %%. Brent crude is trading below USD 108 a barrel. Gold gained for the fourth day in a row when holdings in the world’s biggest Gold exchange-traded fund rose for the first time in two months. The increased volume helped prices, but the fundamentals for Gold are still negative.
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2013/08/12
Metal Prices Rise On China
Metals bounced higher on Friday as stronger than expected data came from
China, with a copper rally not seen in one year. China reported a
pick-up in factory production, investment, and real estate for
construction in July, beating expectations. Data and import and export
also rose indicating to investors that the Chinese economy is in the
process of stabilizing after decelerating in nine of the last ten
months.
A series of Chinese policy measures seem to have had a positive effect and reversed an economic slowdown and the fear of hard landing for the Chinese economy. Chinese analysts expect stable growth in the third quarter with a possible acceleration in the fourth quarter. The unexpectedly strong performance is driven mainly by a rebound in the production of steel, cement, power and non-ferrous metals. This underscores that China’s growth remains disproportionately reliant on credit fuelled infrastructure and property construction.
Global stocks remained close to five-year records as a possible Chinese turn around in the second half of 2013 fueled investors optimism, in spite of a week of mixed activity across the world’s biggest financial centers. This optimism fuelled markets in Europe, but failed to translate for long in the US, as investors took profits after continuous records on Wall Street over the last few weeks. The benchmark S&P index fell for the second week after a rise in stocks on 19% since the beginning of 2013.
In Europe the FTSE All World equity index hovered close to its best level since 2006 after especially large global mining companies climbed on the back of the Chinese data. Shanghai and the Australian stock exchanges jumped as well on the data. In currencies, the US Dollar index continued to lose ground on Friday, but gained against the Euro which eased 24 points to USD 1.3354. USD/JPY descended 0.3 % to 96.38. The Dollar is expected to be under downward pressure until the US Federal Reserve (FED) decides on when to start to taper monetary easing.
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A series of Chinese policy measures seem to have had a positive effect and reversed an economic slowdown and the fear of hard landing for the Chinese economy. Chinese analysts expect stable growth in the third quarter with a possible acceleration in the fourth quarter. The unexpectedly strong performance is driven mainly by a rebound in the production of steel, cement, power and non-ferrous metals. This underscores that China’s growth remains disproportionately reliant on credit fuelled infrastructure and property construction.
Global stocks remained close to five-year records as a possible Chinese turn around in the second half of 2013 fueled investors optimism, in spite of a week of mixed activity across the world’s biggest financial centers. This optimism fuelled markets in Europe, but failed to translate for long in the US, as investors took profits after continuous records on Wall Street over the last few weeks. The benchmark S&P index fell for the second week after a rise in stocks on 19% since the beginning of 2013.
In Europe the FTSE All World equity index hovered close to its best level since 2006 after especially large global mining companies climbed on the back of the Chinese data. Shanghai and the Australian stock exchanges jumped as well on the data. In currencies, the US Dollar index continued to lose ground on Friday, but gained against the Euro which eased 24 points to USD 1.3354. USD/JPY descended 0.3 % to 96.38. The Dollar is expected to be under downward pressure until the US Federal Reserve (FED) decides on when to start to taper monetary easing.
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Chinese Trade Data Encourages
Chinese trading data in July proved better than expected. Both export
and import figures improved and gave stock markets, which declined this
week, a firmer ceiling. The US market rose in the first part of the
session helped by strong results from Microsoft – up 3 % - and Tesla
Motors which jumped 14.2 %. The market turned around and went into red
territory for the fourth consecutive day on criminal charges against
J.P.Morgan related to its mortgage backed securities. The leading US
bank declined 0.8 %.
The Dollar demonstrated new weakness and fell to a seven week low. DXY Dollar index, where USD is weighed against a basket of 6 major currencies, fell 0.5 %. EUR/USD showed new strength and rose 0.4 % to 1.3392. USD/JPY continues to weaken, paying 96.25 Yen to a Dollar which is far off the peak on 103 seen only months ago. “Abeism” - after the new Japanese Premier 'Abe' - meant to spur inflation into a Japanese economy stagnating for decades, has lost momentum with steady declines in the Nikkei stock index.
US jobless numbers registering the number of unemployed requesting unemployment benefits, which surprisingly jumped the last week of June , did not prove any substantial progress starting a new month. This did neither help the mood in the stock market nor the strength of the Euro, but raised new question marks in the ongoing guessing game on when the US Federal Reserve (FED) eventually will start tapering its bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly.
In Russia, two of the leading oil company players, in letters to President Vladimir Putin, mutually accused each other for wrong business decisions. Both the head of the biggest Russian oil company, Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and the head of the monopoly oil pipe company, Transneft, Vladimir Tokarev, who both are former colleagues of Putin in the intelligence services, accuse each other respectively for excessive pipeline prices and ambitious and expensive oil terminal projects in Nahodka in the Russian far East.
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The Dollar demonstrated new weakness and fell to a seven week low. DXY Dollar index, where USD is weighed against a basket of 6 major currencies, fell 0.5 %. EUR/USD showed new strength and rose 0.4 % to 1.3392. USD/JPY continues to weaken, paying 96.25 Yen to a Dollar which is far off the peak on 103 seen only months ago. “Abeism” - after the new Japanese Premier 'Abe' - meant to spur inflation into a Japanese economy stagnating for decades, has lost momentum with steady declines in the Nikkei stock index.
US jobless numbers registering the number of unemployed requesting unemployment benefits, which surprisingly jumped the last week of June , did not prove any substantial progress starting a new month. This did neither help the mood in the stock market nor the strength of the Euro, but raised new question marks in the ongoing guessing game on when the US Federal Reserve (FED) eventually will start tapering its bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly.
In Russia, two of the leading oil company players, in letters to President Vladimir Putin, mutually accused each other for wrong business decisions. Both the head of the biggest Russian oil company, Rosneft, Igor Sechin, and the head of the monopoly oil pipe company, Transneft, Vladimir Tokarev, who both are former colleagues of Putin in the intelligence services, accuse each other respectively for excessive pipeline prices and ambitious and expensive oil terminal projects in Nahodka in the Russian far East.
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2013/08/08
GBP jumps against USD
BP/USD jumped above 1,55, the highest level seen in weeks, after Bank of England (BOE) yesterday linked unemployment to rate hikes. BOE stated that before unemployment is reduced to 7 %% there would be no hikes in interest rate. Even if most analysts see such level unlikely earliest in 3 years, traders interpreted the move as strengthening the pound.
BOE follows the US Federal Reserve (FED) suit. FED has decided to keep the interest rate steady as long as unemployment stays above 6,5 %%. This level has also been seen as a crucial benchmark for any substantial changes in monetary easing. Speculations on when FED will start tapering are fueling the markets with fear. Stock markets both in Europe and the United States fell for the fourth consecutive session. Dow Jones dropped more than 80 points (0,5 %%) during the session.
The dollar which lost momentum on the presentation of unemployment figures last week, continues to lose ground against most currencies. The Japanese yen rose to a seven week high, trading at 96,62 yen against the green back. The DXY index which weighs the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0,4 %%. The stronger yen has impacted Nikkei and other stock markets which have suffered heavy losses during the week. Oil prices also fell yesterday with Brent crude dropping below USD 108 a barrel.
President Obama yesterday cancelled his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in a display of anger with Russia’s decision to grant the whistleblower, Edward Snowden, as the US sees as traitor, permission to stay in Russia. Obama accused Russia for cold war tendencies and repeated grievances over Syria. Saudi Arabia , seen as a close US ally, recently offered Russia to buy USD 15 billion in military aircrafts if Moscow as trade for giving up its support for president Assad.
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BOE follows the US Federal Reserve (FED) suit. FED has decided to keep the interest rate steady as long as unemployment stays above 6,5 %%. This level has also been seen as a crucial benchmark for any substantial changes in monetary easing. Speculations on when FED will start tapering are fueling the markets with fear. Stock markets both in Europe and the United States fell for the fourth consecutive session. Dow Jones dropped more than 80 points (0,5 %%) during the session.
The dollar which lost momentum on the presentation of unemployment figures last week, continues to lose ground against most currencies. The Japanese yen rose to a seven week high, trading at 96,62 yen against the green back. The DXY index which weighs the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0,4 %%. The stronger yen has impacted Nikkei and other stock markets which have suffered heavy losses during the week. Oil prices also fell yesterday with Brent crude dropping below USD 108 a barrel.
President Obama yesterday cancelled his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in a display of anger with Russia’s decision to grant the whistleblower, Edward Snowden, as the US sees as traitor, permission to stay in Russia. Obama accused Russia for cold war tendencies and repeated grievances over Syria. Saudi Arabia , seen as a close US ally, recently offered Russia to buy USD 15 billion in military aircrafts if Moscow as trade for giving up its support for president Assad.
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2013/08/07
Wall street dips
Wall street dipped in trading yesterday evening after consecutive record highs by Dow Jones and S&P over the last seven weeks. IBM fell on bearish analyst commentary. Trading was muted with investors holding pat to stocks close to historic levels. The fading down of the earnings season weighed in on trading volumes. Continuous speculation on when US Federal Reserve (FED) would start tapering its bond buying program of monthly USD 85 Billion kept as well investors on the side line.
The US Commerce Department announced yesterday that the trading gap between export and imports in June fell 22,4 %% to USD 34 Billion. This is the lowest level in 3-1/2 years. Exports touched a record high suggesting an upward revision to second-quarter growth. Adjusted for inflation the gap narrowed 17 %% to USD 43,2 Billion. The June deficit is far smaller than the government had estimated. These are arguments for starting to taper in September.
Export numbers showed a steep increase in trade with the Euro zone countries which rose 1,5 %% in June. Export to the Euro area fell by 5 %% in the first half of 2013. Export to China which has stagnating for some time, saw an increase of 4,5 %% in June and is up 4,5 %% since January 2013. The better trading balance reflected hefty declines in import of petroleum, industrial supplies and materials. The drop in the petroleum imports show that US is sharply reducing its dependence on foreign oil.
In spite of the better balance of trade figures the dollar dropped against the Euro trading at 1.3309. The Japanese yen continues to gain ground. USD/JPY trades at 77,723. British pound is stronger. USD/GBP stands at 1.5371. Oil prices have climbed and Brent crude trades above USD 109 a barrel. Precious metals started the week in negative territory. Gold has dipped substantially below the USD 1300 level at 1287 falling as low as 1278. Silver is following a similar down turn trend.
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The US Commerce Department announced yesterday that the trading gap between export and imports in June fell 22,4 %% to USD 34 Billion. This is the lowest level in 3-1/2 years. Exports touched a record high suggesting an upward revision to second-quarter growth. Adjusted for inflation the gap narrowed 17 %% to USD 43,2 Billion. The June deficit is far smaller than the government had estimated. These are arguments for starting to taper in September.
Export numbers showed a steep increase in trade with the Euro zone countries which rose 1,5 %% in June. Export to the Euro area fell by 5 %% in the first half of 2013. Export to China which has stagnating for some time, saw an increase of 4,5 %% in June and is up 4,5 %% since January 2013. The better trading balance reflected hefty declines in import of petroleum, industrial supplies and materials. The drop in the petroleum imports show that US is sharply reducing its dependence on foreign oil.
In spite of the better balance of trade figures the dollar dropped against the Euro trading at 1.3309. The Japanese yen continues to gain ground. USD/JPY trades at 77,723. British pound is stronger. USD/GBP stands at 1.5371. Oil prices have climbed and Brent crude trades above USD 109 a barrel. Precious metals started the week in negative territory. Gold has dipped substantially below the USD 1300 level at 1287 falling as low as 1278. Silver is following a similar down turn trend.
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2013/08/06
USD loses against Yen
The dollar lost ground for the second consecutive day against the Japanese yen trading at 98,313. The Green back also fell against the Euro. Euro/USD stood at 1.3258 at the end of a turbulent New York stock session which saw major indices falling from record highs into negative territory. Dow Jones ended at 15 615 . Stock exchanges in Europe traded flat.
Statements from the head of US Federal Reserve (FED) in Dallas, gave rise to a new guessing game as to when FED would start tapering its monetary easing. FED is at present by buying USD 85 billion in bonds monthly. Dallas Head Fischer claimed that tapering might start already next month based on unemployment figures. Better services number presented yesterday, pushed bond prices to its highest in 2 years.
The DXY index, a basket of six major currencies against the dollar, stood steady. The dollar has lost 3 %% against major currencies after reaching a peak on July 7th. The British pound, GBP, jumped 0,4 %% against the dollar yesterday and ended 0,4 %% up. The New Zealand, KIWI, lost substantial ground after a bacteria was discovered in products from its leading dairy industry. China immediately stopped import of dairy products from New Zealand.
Oil prices exemplified by Brent crude stay at steady high levels trading close to USD 109 a barrel. Gold prices took a new dip at USD 1301 an ounce. Silver tipped down to USD 19,80 after climbing as high as USD 20,40 yesterday.
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Statements from the head of US Federal Reserve (FED) in Dallas, gave rise to a new guessing game as to when FED would start tapering its monetary easing. FED is at present by buying USD 85 billion in bonds monthly. Dallas Head Fischer claimed that tapering might start already next month based on unemployment figures. Better services number presented yesterday, pushed bond prices to its highest in 2 years.
The DXY index, a basket of six major currencies against the dollar, stood steady. The dollar has lost 3 %% against major currencies after reaching a peak on July 7th. The British pound, GBP, jumped 0,4 %% against the dollar yesterday and ended 0,4 %% up. The New Zealand, KIWI, lost substantial ground after a bacteria was discovered in products from its leading dairy industry. China immediately stopped import of dairy products from New Zealand.
Oil prices exemplified by Brent crude stay at steady high levels trading close to USD 109 a barrel. Gold prices took a new dip at USD 1301 an ounce. Silver tipped down to USD 19,80 after climbing as high as USD 20,40 yesterday.
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2013/08/05
US-jobs weaker than expected
The most important US-job report for July was released on Friday. It was established 162 000new jobs in July, much weaker than expected. Growth for May and June was simultaneously adjusted down with 7000 and 19 000 respectively. 185 000 nonfarm payrolls were expected. The unemployment rate decreased from 7,6 to 7,4 %. Employment in the private sector increased with 162 000, 33 000 lower than expected.
The unemployment figures are far from the 6,5 % target set from the US Federal Reserve (FED) as benchmark for terminating the bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly. It also helps to explain why FED in its policy forecast last Wednesday was careful not give any clear indication on a deadline for monetary easing. While the US economy slowly has picked up in 2013 there is no fundamental turnaround.
The postponement of any firm deadline for the termination of monetary easing is seen as positive for the stock markets which reached new record highs. S&P reached a new peak of 1700. The stock futures have fluctuated following employment data. Stock markets in Europe ended the week in red while Japanese Nikkei climbed 2,82 percent on a weaker yen.
The dollar extended gains prior to the unemployment report on expectations that an upbeat jobs report will prompt FED to withdraw stimulus soon. The disappointing employment data turned markets around. The Euro gained immediately 50 points against the dollar trading at 1.3253. Gold which dropped to 1282 bounced back 30 dollar in some few minutes. Oil prices are still hig
EURO/USD started trading in Asia at 1.3283. USD/JPY stands at 99.00. Gold dropped down to USD 1311 an ounce. Brent crude started the week down trading at USD 108,95 a barrel.
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The unemployment figures are far from the 6,5 % target set from the US Federal Reserve (FED) as benchmark for terminating the bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly. It also helps to explain why FED in its policy forecast last Wednesday was careful not give any clear indication on a deadline for monetary easing. While the US economy slowly has picked up in 2013 there is no fundamental turnaround.
The postponement of any firm deadline for the termination of monetary easing is seen as positive for the stock markets which reached new record highs. S&P reached a new peak of 1700. The stock futures have fluctuated following employment data. Stock markets in Europe ended the week in red while Japanese Nikkei climbed 2,82 percent on a weaker yen.
The dollar extended gains prior to the unemployment report on expectations that an upbeat jobs report will prompt FED to withdraw stimulus soon. The disappointing employment data turned markets around. The Euro gained immediately 50 points against the dollar trading at 1.3253. Gold which dropped to 1282 bounced back 30 dollar in some few minutes. Oil prices are still hig
EURO/USD started trading in Asia at 1.3283. USD/JPY stands at 99.00. Gold dropped down to USD 1311 an ounce. Brent crude started the week down trading at USD 108,95 a barrel.
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2013/08/02
BOE And ECB Keep Rates At 0.5 %
Both Bank of England (BOE) and The European Central Bank (ECB) decided yesterday to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 %. BOE also affirmed to continue bond buying at its present level of 375 billion pounds (USD 571 billion). ECB President Mario Draghi likewise hinted not to tighten monetary easing until well into 2014.
Before the ECB meeting the Euro fell from a six-week high of 1.3345 on Wednesday. The Euro fluctuated between 1.3345 and 1.3228 and trades now at 1.3225. EUR/ GBP advanced for the first time in eight days after a gauge in UK's July manufacturing. The Swedish Krona slumped on a report that factory activities were slowing down.
USD/JPY fell on bond flows. Data showed that Japanese investors the previous week sent record-high funds into foreign bonds for a fourth consecutive week. USD/JPY trades on 99.38 after the Central Bank decisions. Asian shares climbed on better than forecast Chinese manufacturing data. The Australian Dollar slipped to its lowest in three years on bets that the Australian Reserve Bank will cut interest rates next week.
Both Oil and commodity prices went steeply up before the Central Banks met. Brent crude jumped two Dollars to above USD 109 a barrel, but has since fallen back to USD 107.70. Copper rose 1 % on signs of modest growth in the global economy. Before Central Banks decisions this week, most investors expected no major changes in policies or forecast for interest rates. The final decisions confirm their outlook. Currencies remain steady with GBP and JPY losing some ground.
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Before the ECB meeting the Euro fell from a six-week high of 1.3345 on Wednesday. The Euro fluctuated between 1.3345 and 1.3228 and trades now at 1.3225. EUR/ GBP advanced for the first time in eight days after a gauge in UK's July manufacturing. The Swedish Krona slumped on a report that factory activities were slowing down.
USD/JPY fell on bond flows. Data showed that Japanese investors the previous week sent record-high funds into foreign bonds for a fourth consecutive week. USD/JPY trades on 99.38 after the Central Bank decisions. Asian shares climbed on better than forecast Chinese manufacturing data. The Australian Dollar slipped to its lowest in three years on bets that the Australian Reserve Bank will cut interest rates next week.
Both Oil and commodity prices went steeply up before the Central Banks met. Brent crude jumped two Dollars to above USD 109 a barrel, but has since fallen back to USD 107.70. Copper rose 1 % on signs of modest growth in the global economy. Before Central Banks decisions this week, most investors expected no major changes in policies or forecast for interest rates. The final decisions confirm their outlook. Currencies remain steady with GBP and JPY losing some ground.
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2013/08/01
FED comments halt dollar rally
A dollar rally across the board followed news that US added 200 000 new jobs in the private sector in July. Last quarter’s economic growth was also stronger than expected, topping economists’ expectations. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1,7 %% annual rate. 1 %% was forecasted. The rally quickly terminated on FED’s statement that the economy continues to recover, but still needs further support giving no indication when to terminate monetary easing.
The published data marked the third straight quarter of GDP growth below 2 %%; a pace normally, too, soft to bring unemployment down. Growth is, however, expected to grow faster in the second half of 2013 as the fiscal burden brought on by Washington belt-tightening eases.
Investors first reactions on the data seemed to indicate that they increased the likelihood for an early autumn tapering. Traders betted initially on a stronger dollar and the green back rose across the board. Euro/USD fell to 1.3218 to bounce back at 1.3278. USD/JPY is also initially stronger at 92,29. Oil and precious metals prices posted immediate losses on the predictions of a stronger dollar. Brent crude fell below USD 106 a barrel and Gold to 1317.
This turned on FED’s latest statement which keep investors guessing. An end to monetary easing would have weakened the stock markets which have been given strong capital injections due to the bond buying program. Instead the data and FEDs no commitment boosted US stock markets as indexes inside the Euro area ended in red. GBP/USD fell to 1.5133 following the data after trading above 1.53 for the last days
Chinese authorities, mindful of the risk of a sharp economic slowdown that could derail their reform efforts, sent their clearest signal yet that they will do what it takes safeguard growth. China’s main planning agency followed Tuesday up on the Politburo assurances, stating that this year’s growth goal of 7, 5 %% was safe. Authorities would if necessary supply markets with ample funding. The official growth target represents already a 23-year low.
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The published data marked the third straight quarter of GDP growth below 2 %%; a pace normally, too, soft to bring unemployment down. Growth is, however, expected to grow faster in the second half of 2013 as the fiscal burden brought on by Washington belt-tightening eases.
Investors first reactions on the data seemed to indicate that they increased the likelihood for an early autumn tapering. Traders betted initially on a stronger dollar and the green back rose across the board. Euro/USD fell to 1.3218 to bounce back at 1.3278. USD/JPY is also initially stronger at 92,29. Oil and precious metals prices posted immediate losses on the predictions of a stronger dollar. Brent crude fell below USD 106 a barrel and Gold to 1317.
This turned on FED’s latest statement which keep investors guessing. An end to monetary easing would have weakened the stock markets which have been given strong capital injections due to the bond buying program. Instead the data and FEDs no commitment boosted US stock markets as indexes inside the Euro area ended in red. GBP/USD fell to 1.5133 following the data after trading above 1.53 for the last days
Chinese authorities, mindful of the risk of a sharp economic slowdown that could derail their reform efforts, sent their clearest signal yet that they will do what it takes safeguard growth. China’s main planning agency followed Tuesday up on the Politburo assurances, stating that this year’s growth goal of 7, 5 %% was safe. Authorities would if necessary supply markets with ample funding. The official growth target represents already a 23-year low.
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