Following the results of the Friday’s trading session, the majority of the world markets showed negative dynamics. The American indexes decreased within 0,5%%. Among the European platforms - the London FTSE index became the leader of falling, having decreased by 0,81%%.
The statistics published during the day had generally mixed character. So, according to final data, the economy of France grew in the second quarter by 0,5%% that coincided with the previous assessment and forecasts of analysts. Besides, the income of the population of the USA in August increased by 0,4%%, and expenses - for 0,3%% that was also completely similar to forecasts of analysts. The index of consumer confidence fell in the USA in September to 77,5 points in comparison with 82,1 points month before. Analysts expected decrease of an indicator to 78 points.
In addition, the head of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, noted that the current monetary policy will allow to hold a long time inflation below target value of FRS in 2%%. In his opinion, unemployment rate in the USA will reach 6,5%% before FRS will go to increase of interest rates.
This morning Asian platforms significantly decrease. Japanese Nikkei falls for 1,46%% after a release of data on industrial production for August, which was significantly worse than expectations. Decrease for 0,7%% was presented, against expected 0,4%%. The Korean KOSPI decreases by 0,57%%, the Hang-Seng index falls for 1,27%%. The exception makes the Chinese Shanghai Composite which grows up for 0,6%% - the index of business activity in the industry for September according to the HSBC version grew on 0,1 points, and made 50,2 points. Official PMI will be published on Tuesday.
Oil quotations fall within 1%% due to decrease in intensity around the Syrian conflict. In particular, on Saturday it became known that the UN Security Council adopted the resolution on Syria. However the military scenario isn't excluded - in case of violation of the resolution by any of conflicting parties. Brent is traded on a level of 107,66$ per barrel – loosing 0,89%%; Light is down for 1,30%%, traded on a price of 101,52$ per barrel.
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2013/09/30
2013/09/27
Positive Statistics Give The Markets A Chance To Relax
On Thursday, the American market finished the trading session with a small increase. Good news from the labor market and optimistic statements of senator Stein provoked an increase in demand for fallen priced shares after a five day correction period. Primary requests for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to 305 thousand from the reconsidered 310 thousand, that became a minimum level almost in 6 years, and the senator from the republicans declared with confidence that neither government termination of work, nor a default according to obligations, will happen.
It appeared the news was quite enough to spur the correctional growth of market indexes. However, it should be noted that GDP in the final reading in the 2nd quarter made 2.5%, even though a 2.6% increase had been predicted.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with an increase of 0.36% on a level of 15328.30 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 grew by 0.35% to level of 1698.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, rose by 0.70% to a level of 3787.43 points.
The situation in the commodity market seems to be rather stable. Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.95$ per barrel losing 0.23%, Light is down by 0.45%, traded on a level of 102.55$ per barrel. The key support level for Brent is still located in the range of 106.00 – 107.00$ per barrel. Recently we are observing a consolidation, volatility has been reduced.
In the currency market, we have seen a stronger Dollar in relation to all major currency pairs. EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3491, having tested yesterday a support level based on 1.3470. British Pound has been under moderate pressure after the report on the current account of the balance of payments for the first quarter, showing the most considerable deficiency since 1955. That calls into question the possibility of the economy to continue restoration with developed speed due to further strengthening of the Sterling. British Pound is bargaining this morning next to the level of 1.6110.
For today, an exit of important macroeconomic statistics aren't planned that could be capable of having an essential impact on Dollar positions, but it will be saturated on significant events. At once, three members of the committee on the open markets of FRS of the USA will make a speech at various actions.
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It appeared the news was quite enough to spur the correctional growth of market indexes. However, it should be noted that GDP in the final reading in the 2nd quarter made 2.5%, even though a 2.6% increase had been predicted.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed with an increase of 0.36% on a level of 15328.30 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 grew by 0.35% to level of 1698.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, rose by 0.70% to a level of 3787.43 points.
The situation in the commodity market seems to be rather stable. Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.95$ per barrel losing 0.23%, Light is down by 0.45%, traded on a level of 102.55$ per barrel. The key support level for Brent is still located in the range of 106.00 – 107.00$ per barrel. Recently we are observing a consolidation, volatility has been reduced.
In the currency market, we have seen a stronger Dollar in relation to all major currency pairs. EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3491, having tested yesterday a support level based on 1.3470. British Pound has been under moderate pressure after the report on the current account of the balance of payments for the first quarter, showing the most considerable deficiency since 1955. That calls into question the possibility of the economy to continue restoration with developed speed due to further strengthening of the Sterling. British Pound is bargaining this morning next to the level of 1.6110.
For today, an exit of important macroeconomic statistics aren't planned that could be capable of having an essential impact on Dollar positions, but it will be saturated on significant events. At once, three members of the committee on the open markets of FRS of the USA will make a speech at various actions.
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2013/09/26
Passions Concerning Monetary Problems Of America Start Growing
On Wednesday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a decrease again, and the S&P500 fell for the fifth day in a row and recorded the longest losing series this year. The last time we saw the market falling for so many days was over one year ago, when the American legislators couldn't agree upon the question of a "fiscal break", and this time the reason for the falling market is also connected with fiscal problems of the USA.
Uncertainty concerning the budget and a ceiling of the public debt again starts to expand. The American government needs to take all necessary decisions and actions by the 17th of October. Obviously, nobody will allow a default of America, but questions always arise – such as which price will be needed to pay? In general, the heat and debate between republicans and democrats will be going on during the next two weeks and we should keep that in mind.
Yesterday, data was published on sales of new homes for August, showing an increase from the reconsidered 0.39 million to 0.421 million; besides, orders for durable goods for the same month grew by 0.1% though zero change was expected after a collapse for 7.4% one month earlier, which was reconsidered to an even more frightening figure – 8.1%. Even solid macroeconomic statistics couldn't shift the markets in a positive direction.
Today promises to be volatile, important publications for the markets are expected already from the early morning, and will end late night at the Asian session. It should be noted that following the results of the day, we shall not expect considerable changes in the mood of the traders, but during the day there is going to be a good possibility of opening positions, both according to fundamental analysis, and based on technical levels.
As for EUR/USD currency pair, the support level for today is on 1.3490. During the trading session, we can expect the pair to go up to 1.3550-1.3570. In case the Dollar is going to start to strengthen, the first level of resistance to break is based on 1.3490, where the next purpose will be 1.3450.
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Uncertainty concerning the budget and a ceiling of the public debt again starts to expand. The American government needs to take all necessary decisions and actions by the 17th of October. Obviously, nobody will allow a default of America, but questions always arise – such as which price will be needed to pay? In general, the heat and debate between republicans and democrats will be going on during the next two weeks and we should keep that in mind.
Yesterday, data was published on sales of new homes for August, showing an increase from the reconsidered 0.39 million to 0.421 million; besides, orders for durable goods for the same month grew by 0.1% though zero change was expected after a collapse for 7.4% one month earlier, which was reconsidered to an even more frightening figure – 8.1%. Even solid macroeconomic statistics couldn't shift the markets in a positive direction.
Today promises to be volatile, important publications for the markets are expected already from the early morning, and will end late night at the Asian session. It should be noted that following the results of the day, we shall not expect considerable changes in the mood of the traders, but during the day there is going to be a good possibility of opening positions, both according to fundamental analysis, and based on technical levels.
As for EUR/USD currency pair, the support level for today is on 1.3490. During the trading session, we can expect the pair to go up to 1.3550-1.3570. In case the Dollar is going to start to strengthen, the first level of resistance to break is based on 1.3490, where the next purpose will be 1.3450.
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2013/09/25
Budgetary Problems Of The USA Will Be Under Scrutiny In The Next Few Weeks
On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease, due to the influence of adverse macroeconomic statistics and remaining concern in relation to approaching exhaustion of the limit of loans and funds for the correct functioning of the American government. The only important statistics published yesterday was the index of consumer confidence for September, which didn't reach the average forecasts and made 79.7 points, when analysts expected 79.9 points.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.43% to a level of 15334.59 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.26% to a level of 1697.42 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.08% and reached the level of 3768.25 points.
The attention of investors remains on the statements of the heads of the FRS in the last few days, regarding a seemingly possible beginning of turning of stimulating programs in October. Additional risks create proceeding political fights among the American legislators. If the Congress of the USA can't find consensus and coordinate the federal budget, absence can hypothetically lead to financial crisis. In turn, the speech of the U.S. President, Barack Obama, on General assembly of the UN in New York concerning the solution of the Syrian problem, reduced fears of the application of military force.
Leading share indexes of Europe on Tuesday slightly increased. Support to the market was given by statements of the European Central Bank saying that ECB is ready in case of the need to provide additional liquidity to support loan costs at a low level. Moreover, presented positive data on the IFO index of trust of the German businessmen to national economy, also became a positive impulse in the market. This indicator showed continued growth for the fifth month in a row, having reached a maximum level for the last one and a half years.
In the commodity market, futures for Oil of brand Light are this morning increasing by 0.49% and are traded on a level of 103.64$ per barrel, Brent is increasing by 0.42% and traded on a price of 109.10$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.97% and 1.17% accordingly.
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Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.43% to a level of 15334.59 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.26% to a level of 1697.42 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.08% and reached the level of 3768.25 points.
The attention of investors remains on the statements of the heads of the FRS in the last few days, regarding a seemingly possible beginning of turning of stimulating programs in October. Additional risks create proceeding political fights among the American legislators. If the Congress of the USA can't find consensus and coordinate the federal budget, absence can hypothetically lead to financial crisis. In turn, the speech of the U.S. President, Barack Obama, on General assembly of the UN in New York concerning the solution of the Syrian problem, reduced fears of the application of military force.
Leading share indexes of Europe on Tuesday slightly increased. Support to the market was given by statements of the European Central Bank saying that ECB is ready in case of the need to provide additional liquidity to support loan costs at a low level. Moreover, presented positive data on the IFO index of trust of the German businessmen to national economy, also became a positive impulse in the market. This indicator showed continued growth for the fifth month in a row, having reached a maximum level for the last one and a half years.
In the commodity market, futures for Oil of brand Light are this morning increasing by 0.49% and are traded on a level of 103.64$ per barrel, Brent is increasing by 0.42% and traded on a price of 109.10$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.97% and 1.17% accordingly.
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2013/09/24
The Asian Markets Decrease Against A Storming Typhoon
Today's dynamics at the Asian stock markets are generally in a negative zone, the Chinese indexes look worse than the others due to a strong typhoon storming in the People's Republic of China. Also, negative pressure was laid by yesterday's decrease in the American market, that, as a whole, creates a negative external background.
In Hong Kong today there are full-scale sales in the real estate sector, in particular China Resources Land and China Overseas Land & Investment decreased by 3.5% and 1.5% respectively, and the reason for it is the same, a destructive typhoon. On the continent, the situation with construction companies is almost the same, China Vanke and Beijing Capital Development decrease by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively.
In Japan, meanwhile, representatives of the hi-tech exporting sector are feeling worse than the others, which, by tradition, most sharply react to all-market conditions. Sony, Canon and Pioneer lost more than 2% today, the background factor being the strengthening of the Yen against the Dollar which was promoted, in turn, by yesterday's statement of the representative of FED, regarding the state of the economy of the USA and prospects of turning of QE3.
In the commodity market, prices for Oil are slightly decreasing with Brent traded on a level of 108.08$ per barrel and Light is decreasing by 0.12% coming down to a price of 103.46$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are consolidating after steep increases which we witnessed after the decision of FED last week, Gold is traded on a level of 1324.14$ and is losing 0.21%. Silver is down to 21.79$ and is losing 0.68%.
As for the EUR/USD, there will be published statistics on German indicators from IFO institute for September. Positive data will effect the currency pair, and give it power to return back to the resistance level of 1.3550. However, if the results are going to be worse than the expected values, Euro can go down.
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In Hong Kong today there are full-scale sales in the real estate sector, in particular China Resources Land and China Overseas Land & Investment decreased by 3.5% and 1.5% respectively, and the reason for it is the same, a destructive typhoon. On the continent, the situation with construction companies is almost the same, China Vanke and Beijing Capital Development decrease by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively.
In Japan, meanwhile, representatives of the hi-tech exporting sector are feeling worse than the others, which, by tradition, most sharply react to all-market conditions. Sony, Canon and Pioneer lost more than 2% today, the background factor being the strengthening of the Yen against the Dollar which was promoted, in turn, by yesterday's statement of the representative of FED, regarding the state of the economy of the USA and prospects of turning of QE3.
In the commodity market, prices for Oil are slightly decreasing with Brent traded on a level of 108.08$ per barrel and Light is decreasing by 0.12% coming down to a price of 103.46$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are consolidating after steep increases which we witnessed after the decision of FED last week, Gold is traded on a level of 1324.14$ and is losing 0.21%. Silver is down to 21.79$ and is losing 0.68%.
As for the EUR/USD, there will be published statistics on German indicators from IFO institute for September. Positive data will effect the currency pair, and give it power to return back to the resistance level of 1.3550. However, if the results are going to be worse than the expected values, Euro can go down.
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2013/09/23
Angela Merkel Received The Majority In The Parliament Once Again
According to the preliminary data of the electoral committee of Germany, the chancellor of the country, Angela Merkel, and her Christian Democratic Party, received the majority in the parliament yet again, having collected about 42% of the votes. It is interesting to note that the results of the elections, which passed in the country this weekend, appeared to be the most impressive for the party since 1990. For the financial markets this news carries, certainly, positive coloring: in any case political stability in the strongest, from an economic point of view, country of Europe has to be present if the 'Old World' wants prosperity in the future of the European Union.
At the same time, according to the specified data of exit polls, the Free Democratic Party — the colleague of the block of Angela Merkel, lost fraction in the parliament, which was not a very positive moment. As a whole, participants of the market didn't doubt the victory of Angela Merkel, therefore any essential movements, even in the currency market after this event, we shouldn't be waiting for. The EUR/USD currency pair bargains today without changes, trading at 1.3534.
Main macroeconomic releases for the week are going to be preliminary data on the PMI indexes for September and IFO Business Climate in Germany, which will be published today and tomorrow. Dynamics of economic indicators in the leading economy of the Eurozone improved recently, and therefore it is possible to expect an additional positive support for the Euro.
From the technical analysis point of view, the next level of the current ascending trend in EUR/USD is the level of 1.37. However for the pair to continue to go up it is important to hold the support level on 1.34.
The publication of data on activity index in the industry of China (according to the HSBC version) becomes another important event at the beginning of this week. In September, according to preliminary estimates, the indicator grew to 51.2 points, having completely recovered from summer recession. On this background the Chinese stock market shows moderate growth - for 0.8%. Other Asian platforms are weaker at the moment, Australian ASX200 loses 0.4%, and Japanese Nikkei falls for 0.15%.
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At the same time, according to the specified data of exit polls, the Free Democratic Party — the colleague of the block of Angela Merkel, lost fraction in the parliament, which was not a very positive moment. As a whole, participants of the market didn't doubt the victory of Angela Merkel, therefore any essential movements, even in the currency market after this event, we shouldn't be waiting for. The EUR/USD currency pair bargains today without changes, trading at 1.3534.
Main macroeconomic releases for the week are going to be preliminary data on the PMI indexes for September and IFO Business Climate in Germany, which will be published today and tomorrow. Dynamics of economic indicators in the leading economy of the Eurozone improved recently, and therefore it is possible to expect an additional positive support for the Euro.
From the technical analysis point of view, the next level of the current ascending trend in EUR/USD is the level of 1.37. However for the pair to continue to go up it is important to hold the support level on 1.34.
The publication of data on activity index in the industry of China (according to the HSBC version) becomes another important event at the beginning of this week. In September, according to preliminary estimates, the indicator grew to 51.2 points, having completely recovered from summer recession. On this background the Chinese stock market shows moderate growth - for 0.8%. Other Asian platforms are weaker at the moment, Australian ASX200 loses 0.4%, and Japanese Nikkei falls for 0.15%.
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2013/09/20
Index S&P 500 Set Up A New Record
On Thursday, September 19, the American market finished the trading session with a small decrease. During the session the S&P 500 index established a new historical record on a level of 1729.86 points, but due to profit taking, was correcting to lower levels. Moreover, presented favourable macroeconomic statistical data could not motivate investors for further purchases.
As for statistics, it is worth to note firstly, the jump of the index of business activity of FRB of Philadelphia in September, to 22.3 points, at average expectations of an increase to 10 points, and also a 1.7% increase in sales of houses in the secondary market in August to 5.48 million despite expectations of a decrease to 5.25 million. On the labor market, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits increased to 309 thousand, 330 thousand were predicted.
Prices of Oil continued to fall after keeping flat after the announcement of FED’s decision. The price for Brent fell to 108.69$ per barrel losing 1.66%, Light is traded on a price of 105.61$ per barrel, having lost 1.32% in one day. Gold and Silver are slightly correcting after huge growth we witnessed yesterday, Gold is traded on a level of 1362.68$ loosing 0.48% and Silver is losing 1.19% falling to 23.01$ per troy ounce.
As for the currency market, then picture is slightly different from the picture we saw yesterday. The Dollar even managed to become stronger against the British Pound, and restored all losses against the Yen. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day around 1.3525, retaining this level this morning, and GBP/USD is trading on a level of 1.6051.
Friday becomes, perhaps, the most boring day of the current week, as almost all interesting and important events have been seen, analysed and reacted to. Ahead, there is a large number of reports, but in general they have minor importance. The only thing that can really have an effect on the currencies, is the expected elections in Germany, which will occur this weekend. That fact that Merkel's conservatives will win doesn't raise doubts, however it is all about the ability to create a coalition.
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As for statistics, it is worth to note firstly, the jump of the index of business activity of FRB of Philadelphia in September, to 22.3 points, at average expectations of an increase to 10 points, and also a 1.7% increase in sales of houses in the secondary market in August to 5.48 million despite expectations of a decrease to 5.25 million. On the labor market, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits increased to 309 thousand, 330 thousand were predicted.
Prices of Oil continued to fall after keeping flat after the announcement of FED’s decision. The price for Brent fell to 108.69$ per barrel losing 1.66%, Light is traded on a price of 105.61$ per barrel, having lost 1.32% in one day. Gold and Silver are slightly correcting after huge growth we witnessed yesterday, Gold is traded on a level of 1362.68$ loosing 0.48% and Silver is losing 1.19% falling to 23.01$ per troy ounce.
As for the currency market, then picture is slightly different from the picture we saw yesterday. The Dollar even managed to become stronger against the British Pound, and restored all losses against the Yen. As a result, EUR/USD finished the trading day around 1.3525, retaining this level this morning, and GBP/USD is trading on a level of 1.6051.
Friday becomes, perhaps, the most boring day of the current week, as almost all interesting and important events have been seen, analysed and reacted to. Ahead, there is a large number of reports, but in general they have minor importance. The only thing that can really have an effect on the currencies, is the expected elections in Germany, which will occur this weekend. That fact that Merkel's conservatives will win doesn't raise doubts, however it is all about the ability to create a coalition.
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FED Surprised Markets, Having Rolled Dollar Down
FED’s meeting keeping the intrigue till the last moment, extremely surprised investors and shook the currency market. Unexpected inaction of the regulator helped the European currencies to beat the strongest levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day at the level of 1,3540, and GBP/USD closed day at 1,6150.
FED declared preservation of the current volumes of stimulation at the level of $85 billion a month and a guarantee of keeping low rates while unemployment remains higher than 6,5% and inflation doesn't exceed 2,5%. Moreover, FRS decreased expectations on gross domestic product growth in the current year from 2,3%-2,6% to 2%-2,3%.
Stock markets reacted to this surprises with a steady growth, the S&P500 index grew by 1,22% having updated a historical maximum, reaching level of 1725,52. Dow Jones reached level of 15676,94 having added 0,94%, Nasdaq increased for 1,01% - reaching 3783,64 points.
The most interest development we could see in the commodity market, where FED decision stops fall of the oil prices. Brent this morning is traded on a level of 110,87$ per barrel and Light ads 0,49% bargaining next to the price of 107,81$ per barrel. Prices of precious metals are moving up, with Gold adding 4,23% in one day and reaching level of 1362,91$. Silver increasing for more than 7,00%, going over the level of 23,00$ per troy ounce.
Today will be presented data on a labor market - level of demands for unemployment benefits can grow again after record-breaking low indicators of last week. EUR/USD currency pair can face problems continuing further increase, due to the political situation in the Eurozone. First, the situation with Berlusconi isn't solved yet, and secondly, fears cause also prospects for elections in Germany which will pass during upcoming weekend. Thus, we don't exclude possibility of correction to the closest level of support which is around level 1,3450. Today from significant events of the European session only the report on retails of Great Britain, where delay of growth rates is expected will be issued.
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FED declared preservation of the current volumes of stimulation at the level of $85 billion a month and a guarantee of keeping low rates while unemployment remains higher than 6,5% and inflation doesn't exceed 2,5%. Moreover, FRS decreased expectations on gross domestic product growth in the current year from 2,3%-2,6% to 2%-2,3%.
Stock markets reacted to this surprises with a steady growth, the S&P500 index grew by 1,22% having updated a historical maximum, reaching level of 1725,52. Dow Jones reached level of 15676,94 having added 0,94%, Nasdaq increased for 1,01% - reaching 3783,64 points.
The most interest development we could see in the commodity market, where FED decision stops fall of the oil prices. Brent this morning is traded on a level of 110,87$ per barrel and Light ads 0,49% bargaining next to the price of 107,81$ per barrel. Prices of precious metals are moving up, with Gold adding 4,23% in one day and reaching level of 1362,91$. Silver increasing for more than 7,00%, going over the level of 23,00$ per troy ounce.
Today will be presented data on a labor market - level of demands for unemployment benefits can grow again after record-breaking low indicators of last week. EUR/USD currency pair can face problems continuing further increase, due to the political situation in the Eurozone. First, the situation with Berlusconi isn't solved yet, and secondly, fears cause also prospects for elections in Germany which will pass during upcoming weekend. Thus, we don't exclude possibility of correction to the closest level of support which is around level 1,3450. Today from significant events of the European session only the report on retails of Great Britain, where delay of growth rates is expected will be issued.
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2013/09/18
Decision On Syria Can Bring A Negative Impact On Stock Markets
Last week was full of macroeconomic statistical data, which has been bringing turbulence on the markets and we have witnessed quite different movements in the stock and currency markets of late. Despite the fact that trading session in the American stock market has been rather volatile, indexes finished almost on the levels they began. Dow Jones dropped for 0.10%% and reached 14922.50, Nasdaq added 0.03%% and closed the session on the level of 3660.01 and S&P500 increased for 0.01%% and closed the session on 1655.17.
The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7%% and 58.6%%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.
The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.
This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.
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The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7%% and 58.6%%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.
The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.
This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.
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FED Meeting Results To Be Announced Today
Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the world stock markets showed multidirectional dynamics. The American indexes grew within 0.4% and the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 remained less than in 5 points from the maximum recorded on August 2, closing the trading day at level of 1704.76 points. In turn, the European platforms showed negative dynamics. The London FTSE index declined the most, having decreased by 0.8%.
The statistics presented during the day had positive character overall. Consumer Price Index in Great Britain grew in August for 0.4%, a 0.5% forecast had been predicted. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased in September to 49.6 points, from 42 points the month before.The index reached the maximum level for the last 4 years, having been affected by raised levels of optimistic expectations concerning prospects of the European economy. In addition Consumer Price Index in the USA in August grew by 0.1%, analysts expected an increase of the indicator to 0.2%.
As for the commodity market, prices for Oil are continuing to decrease, Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.03$ per barrel losing 0.14%, Light is on the price of 104.87$ per barrel. Gold dipped below the level of 1300.00 and is traded on the price 1298.11$ per troy ounce, losing 0.86%. Silver is down to 0.95% on the price of 21.57$.
The main event of the day is going to be the announcement of the results of the FED’s meeting, which investors were waiting for, for the last few weeks. Mainly analytics are convinced that the decision on turning off stimulating programs will be the most likely scenario. The American Central Bank will most probably start reducing volumes of the repayment of bonds gradually, no more than $15 billion a month, and will also publish forecasts which will allow the estimation of long-term prospects of the economy of the USA.
As for the other statistics today, it is worth paying attention to data on the housing market in the USA, and on stocks of Oil and Oil products in the USA.
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The statistics presented during the day had positive character overall. Consumer Price Index in Great Britain grew in August for 0.4%, a 0.5% forecast had been predicted. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased in September to 49.6 points, from 42 points the month before.The index reached the maximum level for the last 4 years, having been affected by raised levels of optimistic expectations concerning prospects of the European economy. In addition Consumer Price Index in the USA in August grew by 0.1%, analysts expected an increase of the indicator to 0.2%.
As for the commodity market, prices for Oil are continuing to decrease, Brent is traded this morning on a level of 108.03$ per barrel losing 0.14%, Light is on the price of 104.87$ per barrel. Gold dipped below the level of 1300.00 and is traded on the price 1298.11$ per troy ounce, losing 0.86%. Silver is down to 0.95% on the price of 21.57$.
The main event of the day is going to be the announcement of the results of the FED’s meeting, which investors were waiting for, for the last few weeks. Mainly analytics are convinced that the decision on turning off stimulating programs will be the most likely scenario. The American Central Bank will most probably start reducing volumes of the repayment of bonds gradually, no more than $15 billion a month, and will also publish forecasts which will allow the estimation of long-term prospects of the economy of the USA.
As for the other statistics today, it is worth paying attention to data on the housing market in the USA, and on stocks of Oil and Oil products in the USA.
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2013/09/17
Markets keep optimism in anticipation of two-day meeting of FED
On Monday, September 16, the American market finished trading session with an increase. Inflow of optimism was explained, generally, by news that Lawrence Summers, being the obvious favorite of the president, withdrew the candidacy on the post of the head of FED. Summers has been considered as the supporter of toughening of monetary policy and therefore this news caused increase in demand for risk and sag of dollar in relation to the main currencies. Now chances that Janet Yellen will be chosen as the new chairman, became even more. And understanding that less aggressive candidate will come instead of Ben Bernanke, caused sharp reaction of the market.
Purchases were also supported by achievement of the agreement between Russia and the USA concerning elimination of the Syrian chemical weapon. As a result, the trading session has finished with an increase of 0,77%% for the Dow Jones reaching level of 15494.78, S&P 500 grew up for 0,57%% to level of 1697,60 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq has fallen for 0,12%% to a price of 3717,85.
The information that Syrian question has been solved also had an influence on commodity market, where Brent decreased to a level of 109,58$ per barrel and Light reached price of 105,40$ per barrel.
The majority of the main currency pairs opened week with a gaps, and during the day didn't close them. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day around 1,3340, and GBP/USD – closed day at 1,5910. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on a level of 1.3344. Today will be released data on ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany, which once again can confirm weakness of economic recovery in the region. Indicator growth to 45,3 from the 42 month before is predicted, however the last reports are giving the grounds to expect lower levels. If this occurs be true, pair can try to go throw the next support level on 1,3320 and go to the level 1,3280.
This week meeting of FED of the USA starting today still is a key event. Results will be declared tomorrow. Now remains less and less doubts that volumes of the program of quantitative easing will be reduced. As the most probable amount of reduction the sums of $10-15 billion are predicted. Tomorrow’s decision of FED will designate further directions of the markets.
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Purchases were also supported by achievement of the agreement between Russia and the USA concerning elimination of the Syrian chemical weapon. As a result, the trading session has finished with an increase of 0,77%% for the Dow Jones reaching level of 15494.78, S&P 500 grew up for 0,57%% to level of 1697,60 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq has fallen for 0,12%% to a price of 3717,85.
The information that Syrian question has been solved also had an influence on commodity market, where Brent decreased to a level of 109,58$ per barrel and Light reached price of 105,40$ per barrel.
The majority of the main currency pairs opened week with a gaps, and during the day didn't close them. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day around 1,3340, and GBP/USD – closed day at 1,5910. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on a level of 1.3344. Today will be released data on ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany, which once again can confirm weakness of economic recovery in the region. Indicator growth to 45,3 from the 42 month before is predicted, however the last reports are giving the grounds to expect lower levels. If this occurs be true, pair can try to go throw the next support level on 1,3320 and go to the level 1,3280.
This week meeting of FED of the USA starting today still is a key event. Results will be declared tomorrow. Now remains less and less doubts that volumes of the program of quantitative easing will be reduced. As the most probable amount of reduction the sums of $10-15 billion are predicted. Tomorrow’s decision of FED will designate further directions of the markets.
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2013/09/16
Further movement in the markets will depend from the FRS decision on Wednesday
On Friday, September 13, the trading session in stock markets of the USA was influenced by a number of the macroeconomic data which have reflected changes in a consumer spirit of Americans.
Statistical data was of mixed character. The greatest disappointment was brought by a preliminary index of consumer confidence of Michigan University which in September fell to the minimum level since April, to 76.8 points from 82.1 points in August. The retails showing incensement the 5th month in a row, in August increased by 0.2%%, having conceded to more optimistic forecast of analysts of 0.5%%.
Contradictory and generally the adverse macroeconomic statistics was apprehended by investors quite quietly, as not too convincing results of recovery of the American economy can play constraining role in intentions of FRS to reduce scales of financial stimulation at meeting on monetary policy. Seems, that stock markets, reconciled and already in a certain degree won back the future gradual turning of the program of "quantitative easing" - QE3. Now the main issue for the investors is when actually the QE3 will be closed and how strongly the program will be cut down. According to poll of leading economists by Bloomberg news agency, the majority of them considers that the decision on this question will be made during the coming meeting of FRS and the volume of financial injections will be cut down on 10 billion dollars.
Whole previous week the American dollar appeared to be under pressure and finished trading week around level of 1.3280, this week EUR/USD pair started trading on the level 1.3353 and now traded on a level 1.3070. Depending from the news background coming from FRS meeting, currency pair can try the resistance level on 1.3460, in case of decrease in quotations - the closest level of support there is a level 1,31.
As for the commodity market, there oil loses in prices in connection with certain weakening of confrontation concerning Syria and against unfavorable American data on retails and consumer confidence that strengthened concern in relation to prospects of demand for energy carriers. In comparison with closing price on last Friday, oil made a loss of 2.1%%. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 110.58$ per barrel and Light is on 106.44$. Gold is 1.26%% up at 1325.09$, silver increasing for 0.76%%.
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Statistical data was of mixed character. The greatest disappointment was brought by a preliminary index of consumer confidence of Michigan University which in September fell to the minimum level since April, to 76.8 points from 82.1 points in August. The retails showing incensement the 5th month in a row, in August increased by 0.2%%, having conceded to more optimistic forecast of analysts of 0.5%%.
Contradictory and generally the adverse macroeconomic statistics was apprehended by investors quite quietly, as not too convincing results of recovery of the American economy can play constraining role in intentions of FRS to reduce scales of financial stimulation at meeting on monetary policy. Seems, that stock markets, reconciled and already in a certain degree won back the future gradual turning of the program of "quantitative easing" - QE3. Now the main issue for the investors is when actually the QE3 will be closed and how strongly the program will be cut down. According to poll of leading economists by Bloomberg news agency, the majority of them considers that the decision on this question will be made during the coming meeting of FRS and the volume of financial injections will be cut down on 10 billion dollars.
Whole previous week the American dollar appeared to be under pressure and finished trading week around level of 1.3280, this week EUR/USD pair started trading on the level 1.3353 and now traded on a level 1.3070. Depending from the news background coming from FRS meeting, currency pair can try the resistance level on 1.3460, in case of decrease in quotations - the closest level of support there is a level 1,31.
As for the commodity market, there oil loses in prices in connection with certain weakening of confrontation concerning Syria and against unfavorable American data on retails and consumer confidence that strengthened concern in relation to prospects of demand for energy carriers. In comparison with closing price on last Friday, oil made a loss of 2.1%%. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 110.58$ per barrel and Light is on 106.44$. Gold is 1.26%% up at 1325.09$, silver increasing for 0.76%%.
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2013/09/13
Markets stiffened waiting for FRS meeting
On Thursday, September 12, main stock indexes of the United States of America finished the trading session after the insignificant in the negative territory. The Syrian problem still remains on the agenda. Intensity in the markets grew again after John Kerri's statements that the probability of military operations from the USA isn't excluded yet.
Expectations concerning reduction of the program of stimulation of economy of the USA, which can be already declared next week, only poured oil on the flame. This speculation has been strengthened by data on number of primary requests for the unemployment benefits, which reached the minimum value since March, 2006. So, the number made 292 thousand whereas 330 thousand were expected.
Following the results of trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,17%% and was closed on a level of 15 300,64 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus for 0,34%% to level 1 683,42 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq lost 0,24%% reaching level of 3 715,97 points.
As the majority of participants of the market wait for any definiteness concerning the solution of the conflict round Syria, the price of Brent continues to dangle near a key zone of support level at of 110-112$ for barrel. This area separates us from more essential impulse down. This morning Brent is traded on a level of 111.71$ per barrel and Light on 107.69$ per barrel.
As for EUR/USD currency pair, prospects of pair have limited character in connection with unimpressive recovery of the economy of the Eurozone. The area 1.3320/1.3330 still remains to be very difficult for overcoming, so strong data on retail sales can send pair down with the nearest level on 1,3260.
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Expectations concerning reduction of the program of stimulation of economy of the USA, which can be already declared next week, only poured oil on the flame. This speculation has been strengthened by data on number of primary requests for the unemployment benefits, which reached the minimum value since March, 2006. So, the number made 292 thousand whereas 330 thousand were expected.
Following the results of trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,17%% and was closed on a level of 15 300,64 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus for 0,34%% to level 1 683,42 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq lost 0,24%% reaching level of 3 715,97 points.
As the majority of participants of the market wait for any definiteness concerning the solution of the conflict round Syria, the price of Brent continues to dangle near a key zone of support level at of 110-112$ for barrel. This area separates us from more essential impulse down. This morning Brent is traded on a level of 111.71$ per barrel and Light on 107.69$ per barrel.
As for EUR/USD currency pair, prospects of pair have limited character in connection with unimpressive recovery of the economy of the Eurozone. The area 1.3320/1.3330 still remains to be very difficult for overcoming, so strong data on retail sales can send pair down with the nearest level on 1,3260.
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2013/09/12
Investors are waiting for FRS meeting where the destiny of the QE3 program can be decided
Leading stock markets of Europe has been growing yesterday. The leader became the German DAX, which has added 0.6%%. Mainly due to increased interest from the investors towards the largest German energy companies - E.ON (+4,8%%) and RWE (+6,6%%). The value of the stock of the British chip maker ARM Holdings developing chips for iPhone smartphones, jumped up yesterday almost for 5%%. It occurred after Apple announced two latest versions of the smartphones - multipurpose iPhone 5S and its younger brother - iPhone 5C.
However shares of Apple after presentation of smartphones fell in two days more than for 7%%. Experts totally scarified positioned as the "budgetary" iPhone 5C, which obviously didn't get to the target price category. Falling of stock quotes of Apple was negatively reflected yesterday in an index of technological sector of the USA which lost 0,1%%. In turn, Dow Jones finished trading day in a green zone, having added 0,7%%, thankfully to growth of stock quotations of IBM corporation. Corporation declared that sells to the Synnex company the division which is engaged in outsourcing support of clients, for $0,5 billion. Shares of Synnex jumped up yesterday more than for 20%%.
Another interesting development yesterday was that on the expectations of good performance results due to increased demand for mobile advertising, Facebook shares rose in price for 3.3%% and were closed at 45.04$ per share, having exceeded a level of 45.00$ for the first time since the moment of IPO which has been carried out in May, 2012.
As to the currency market, main currency pairs approached to key levels of resistance. As a result, EUR/USD finished trading day in the level of 1,3310, and GBP/USD – around 1,5740. News that the U.S. President Obama asked the Congress to postpone vote concerning rocket attack across Damascus, reduced interest to US dollar, however pair faced quite strong resistance on 1,3280 which could go throw only during the American session. This morning EUR/USD is traded on a level of 1.3302, there is possibility that levels of 1.3320/1.3330 will be difficult to overcome and, as a result, it is possible to expect temporary correction back to 1.3260.
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2013/09/11
Berlusconi’s threats attract attention of investors
Yesterday stock markets of the United States of America finished trading session on a positive note due to support given by statements of the prime minister of Syria and statistics from China, which appeared to be better than average expectations of analysts.
Prime minister of Syria, Wael al-Halki, declared that his country agrees with the offer of Russia to transfer all Syrian chemical weapon under the international control, having officially agreed, thus, on chemical disarmament. The market with optimism apprehended these news, taking into consideration also speech of US Secretary of State, John Kerri, who noted that Assad can avoid military intervention if within the next week transfers all chemical weapon to the international community.
As for the Chinese statistics, according to the presented data, retails increased in August by 13,4%% while increase of only 13,2%% has been predicted. Industrial production in August increased by 10,4%% that exceeded forecasts of analysts of 9,9%%.
Following the results of yesterday's trading session - the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index got stronger for 0,85%% and was closed on a level of 15 191,06 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased for 0,73%% to level of 1 683,99 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq added 0,62%% reaching 3 729,02 points.
As Syrian question has been put on hold, prices of oil of brand Light started to decrease in price, reaching this morning price of 106.16$ per barrel. Brent adds 0.10%% and is traded on a level of 110.13$. Gold is stable on 1367.09$.
While the economic calendar is not having many statistical data, attention of the investors is drawn to subject in relation to Berlusconi and his party. It is important subject, because Italy is the third by the size economic system of E-17 system, and if crisis will begin within the country, echoes will be heard in all region. Secondly, threat of the politician to convince party to stop government support is dangerous due to the fact that the coalition government of the current prime minister won't be able to continue work. Parliament collapse, need of carrying out new elections will lead to new expenses and instability in Italy. Berlusconi didn't sound the decision yet, but can make it at any time, therefore EUR/USD trades very carefully.
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2013/09/10
The USA is ready to postpone military operation against Syria
Today the market will be more nervous, than it was on Monday - the USA is ready to accept the offer of Russia and to postpone military operation against Syria, if Syria will agree to transfer the chemical weapon of the country under the international control. Based on this news and discussions, prices of oil are falling. Brent is traded this morning on 111.47$ per barrel and Light has reached level of 107.46$, both oil, both oil brands are losing around 1%% in price. Nevertheless, the latest events are only temporary break before the situation will continue to develop according to a new scenario.
Meanwhile, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a moderate growth of the main indexes, the Dow Jones index recorded the greatest increase from the middle of July, having added 0.94%%. Nasdaq and S&P500 added 1.26%% and 0.99%% accordingly. Mainly all the stock markets were growing on the Chinese optimism.
Just to remind, that surplus of trade balance made $28,61 billion in comparison with average market expectations at the level of $20 billion. Signs of improvement of economy of the country accordingly to the tradition work as a balm for the soul of the investment community, and on such background even remaining uncertainty around Syria didn't prevent rally.
One more interesting development, we could see in the development of the EUR/USD currency pair. USD felt under pressure after the index of business moods of Sentix grew to 6,5 instead of predicted fall to 4,0, having showed the maximum indicator since May, 2011. Euro went above level of 1.32, reaching 1.3280 high during the America trading session and closing day around 1.3260. This morning, dollar is trying to win back lost positions and is strengthening towards euro, traded on a level of 1.3246.
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Meanwhile, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a moderate growth of the main indexes, the Dow Jones index recorded the greatest increase from the middle of July, having added 0.94%%. Nasdaq and S&P500 added 1.26%% and 0.99%% accordingly. Mainly all the stock markets were growing on the Chinese optimism.
Just to remind, that surplus of trade balance made $28,61 billion in comparison with average market expectations at the level of $20 billion. Signs of improvement of economy of the country accordingly to the tradition work as a balm for the soul of the investment community, and on such background even remaining uncertainty around Syria didn't prevent rally.
One more interesting development, we could see in the development of the EUR/USD currency pair. USD felt under pressure after the index of business moods of Sentix grew to 6,5 instead of predicted fall to 4,0, having showed the maximum indicator since May, 2011. Euro went above level of 1.32, reaching 1.3280 high during the America trading session and closing day around 1.3260. This morning, dollar is trying to win back lost positions and is strengthening towards euro, traded on a level of 1.3246.
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2013/09/09
Decision On Syria Can Bring A Negative Impact On Stock Markets
Last week was full of macroeconomic statistical data, which has been bringing turbulence on the markets and we have witnessed quite different movements in the stock and currency markets of late. Despite the fact that trading session in the American stock market has been rather volatile, indexes finished almost on the levels they began. Dow Jones dropped for 0.10%% and reached 14922.50, Nasdaq added 0.03%% and closed the session on the level of 3660.01 and S&P500 increased for 0.01%% and closed the session on 1655.17.
The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7%% and 58.6%%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.
The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.
This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.
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The American Dollar strengthened last week due to key macroeconomic indicators, which were better than expectations, showing increased chances that FRS will begin the reduction of the program of quantitative easing following the results of the next meeting which will take place on September 17-18. The PMI indexes in the production and services sector were recorded at levels 55.7%% and 58.6%%, respectively. But, after the publication of the report on the labor market, where data for June and July were revised with a fall in the sum on 79 thousand, the American Dollar was under moderate pressure and started to lose in relation to major currencies.
The European currency has also been under quite strong pressure after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Dragi, during a press conference, declared that the Management board discussed the possibility of an additional decrease of the interest rate. The month before, the European Central Bank gave reference points on monetary policy in which he noted that rates will remain low in "the foreseeable future". However, against improving macroeconomic statistics, participants of the market began to exclude the possibility of a further decrease, and the Euro became stronger. EUR/USD pair on Friday was traded on the level of 1.3160, losing following the results of a week 0.4%%. This morning, we can see EUR/USD traded on the level of 1.3172.
This week there are no expected important macroeconomic statistics capable to have essential impact on the moods of participants of the currency market. As for the near-term outlook, Syria still remains the center of attention. Obama's speech to the nation address is planned for Tuesday. On Wednesday congressmen are returning from vacation, and will, most probably, take a final decision on the Syrian matter.
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2013/09/06
The release of strong data from the USA strengthened sales of Euro
Statistical data presented yesterday in the America had more considerable impact on the market, than meetings of two main Central Banks. As a result the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the small growth of the main indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,04%% to level of 14937,50 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,12%% to a price of 1655,08 points, and the index of high-tech industries - Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,27%% and reached a point of 3658,78.
Strong macroeconomic data from the USA additionally to press conference of Mr. Dragi became a last straw, and if currency pair in the morning tried to keep next to the level 1.32 – after all dropped to a local minimum on the level of 1.3109. Even Dragi began his speech with conversations on the signs showing recovery in the economy, he still summed up, having declared that hard times aren't passed yet. Moreover, he confirmed that it is impossible to exclude need of lower rates.
Tension around Syrian question continues to grow. Messages on attempt of murder of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Egypt confirm that all Middle East, and not just Syria are captured by passions. It only maintains demand for US dollar which so is popular in anticipation of the report publication on "non-farm”.
In the commodity market, Brent is traded on a level of 113.49$ per barrel and Light reached 107.63$ per barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX yesterday fell in the price by 1,22%% to level of 1373.00$ for troy ounce and this morning is traded on a level of 1371.56$.
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Strong macroeconomic data from the USA additionally to press conference of Mr. Dragi became a last straw, and if currency pair in the morning tried to keep next to the level 1.32 – after all dropped to a local minimum on the level of 1.3109. Even Dragi began his speech with conversations on the signs showing recovery in the economy, he still summed up, having declared that hard times aren't passed yet. Moreover, he confirmed that it is impossible to exclude need of lower rates.
Tension around Syrian question continues to grow. Messages on attempt of murder of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Egypt confirm that all Middle East, and not just Syria are captured by passions. It only maintains demand for US dollar which so is popular in anticipation of the report publication on "non-farm”.
In the commodity market, Brent is traded on a level of 113.49$ per barrel and Light reached 107.63$ per barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX yesterday fell in the price by 1,22%% to level of 1373.00$ for troy ounce and this morning is traded on a level of 1371.56$.
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2013/09/05
The bank of Japan left monetary policy without changes
Asian stock markets are not receiving any accurate impulses for long-term movement in the market that is why indexes in general are moving in a different directions. Today we also can see multi-directional dynamics in the market. Worse than the others look index of continental China SSE, the Australian ASX, and also Japanese Nikkei.
Today finished meeting of the Central Bank of Japan within which the regulator decided to leave the current monetary policy without change, having raised, thus, an assessment of state of the economy for the first time in 2 months. Thus already can be heard offers from some board members to make a target rate of inflation more flexible, and not to go so strictly with rate on 2%%. The Japanese yen practically didn't react to these statements, having continued to bargain under level 100 against the American dollar, but the stock market started decreasing gradually. Meanwhile the hi-tech exporting companies which are most sensitive to a rate of national currency, today mainly grow, so Sony, Pioneer and Toshiba add about 1,2%%.
In meantime in the USA, stock market has finished yesterday’s trading session with increase in price of main indexes. Reasons for that were improvement of macroeconomic realities in the Eurozone and the USA, and also increase in demand for shares of auto makers and the hi-tech companies. The revised data on gross domestic product of the Eurozone confirmed 0,3%% growth of economy of the region in the 2nd quarter, having strengthened impression of the favorable data published the other day on the industry in Europe. In the USA, in turn, according to the report of the Beige book, the industry grew, and consumers began to spend more for entertainments, in particular, on tourism.
Vote of Committee of foreign affairs at the Senate in favor of limited military blow to Syria didn't scare investors. Let's note that the final decision will be made, most likely, in some days. Price for oil stabilized a bit and decreased in comparison to few days before, Brent is traded on a level of 113.37$ per barrel and Light is traded on a level of 106.63$ per barrel.
Today investors will be waiting for the conference of Mr. Dragi and the unemployment figures from the USA.
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Today finished meeting of the Central Bank of Japan within which the regulator decided to leave the current monetary policy without change, having raised, thus, an assessment of state of the economy for the first time in 2 months. Thus already can be heard offers from some board members to make a target rate of inflation more flexible, and not to go so strictly with rate on 2%%. The Japanese yen practically didn't react to these statements, having continued to bargain under level 100 against the American dollar, but the stock market started decreasing gradually. Meanwhile the hi-tech exporting companies which are most sensitive to a rate of national currency, today mainly grow, so Sony, Pioneer and Toshiba add about 1,2%%.
In meantime in the USA, stock market has finished yesterday’s trading session with increase in price of main indexes. Reasons for that were improvement of macroeconomic realities in the Eurozone and the USA, and also increase in demand for shares of auto makers and the hi-tech companies. The revised data on gross domestic product of the Eurozone confirmed 0,3%% growth of economy of the region in the 2nd quarter, having strengthened impression of the favorable data published the other day on the industry in Europe. In the USA, in turn, according to the report of the Beige book, the industry grew, and consumers began to spend more for entertainments, in particular, on tourism.
Vote of Committee of foreign affairs at the Senate in favor of limited military blow to Syria didn't scare investors. Let's note that the final decision will be made, most likely, in some days. Price for oil stabilized a bit and decreased in comparison to few days before, Brent is traded on a level of 113.37$ per barrel and Light is traded on a level of 106.63$ per barrel.
Today investors will be waiting for the conference of Mr. Dragi and the unemployment figures from the USA.
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2013/09/04
The Syrian Factor Remains Dominating in the Market
We stepped in cold market waters of September only with one foot, but news lines are already glistening with various headings.
Limiting factor for the world markets is quite intense international situation around Syria. As it became known, the U.S. President Barack Obama got support of a number of key figures in the American congress in a question of drawing military blow to Syria. Vote on the matter in the congress will take place next week.
In addition to this on Tuesday in the first part of the day there were messages on start of ballistic missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. These news in the moment provoked speculative growth in the oil market, even in spite of the fact that as a result the Pentagon declared that rocket tests aren't connected with possible operation in Syria as they were already planned long ago (together with Israel).
As a result, price for Brent in a momentum reached 115.68$ per barrel and price for Light was on a level of 108.54$ per barrel. This morning, we can see Brent traded on a price of 113.78$ per barrel and Light on a level of 107.54$ per barrel, just with a slight decrease.
On the same background, EUR/USD pair became also the victim of market fears, which supported sales. The release of data on business activity in manufacturing industry of the USA became an additional factor of pressure. So, currency pair from level of opening 1,3188 dropped to a minimum of 1,3143 and finished trading days closely to 1,3165.
The Eurozone will publish today a series of data on business activity in a services sector. The indicator can continue to show growth, maintaining hopes of investors of more aggressive speech of the head of European Central Bank during a press conference after meeting. In that case it is possible to wait for kickback of EUR/USD from 1,3150 with probability of breakdown 1,32 and the further purpose on 1,3230.
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Limiting factor for the world markets is quite intense international situation around Syria. As it became known, the U.S. President Barack Obama got support of a number of key figures in the American congress in a question of drawing military blow to Syria. Vote on the matter in the congress will take place next week.
In addition to this on Tuesday in the first part of the day there were messages on start of ballistic missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. These news in the moment provoked speculative growth in the oil market, even in spite of the fact that as a result the Pentagon declared that rocket tests aren't connected with possible operation in Syria as they were already planned long ago (together with Israel).
As a result, price for Brent in a momentum reached 115.68$ per barrel and price for Light was on a level of 108.54$ per barrel. This morning, we can see Brent traded on a price of 113.78$ per barrel and Light on a level of 107.54$ per barrel, just with a slight decrease.
On the same background, EUR/USD pair became also the victim of market fears, which supported sales. The release of data on business activity in manufacturing industry of the USA became an additional factor of pressure. So, currency pair from level of opening 1,3188 dropped to a minimum of 1,3143 and finished trading days closely to 1,3165.
The Eurozone will publish today a series of data on business activity in a services sector. The indicator can continue to show growth, maintaining hopes of investors of more aggressive speech of the head of European Central Bank during a press conference after meeting. In that case it is possible to wait for kickback of EUR/USD from 1,3150 with probability of breakdown 1,32 and the further purpose on 1,3230.
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2013/09/03
September is going to bring turbulence to currency markets
Following the results of the yesterday's trading session the European stock markets showed positive dynamics. The French CAC index which has grown by 1,84%%, became the leader of growth. The stock market in the USA was closed in connection with Labor Day celebration.
This morning support to the world markets was given by positive data from China. The index of business activity in production sector of China, counted by national bureau of statistics of the country, grew in August to 51 points comparable to 50,3 points month before. The similar index counted by HSBC bank, grew in August to 50,1 points in comparison with 47,7 points month before.
Statistics coming from other countries had in general mixed character. The index of business activity in production sector of Germany grew in August to 51,8 points in comparison with 50,7 points month before. Analysts expected index growth to 52 points. In France the similar index didn't change in comparison with the last month and made 49,7 points that coincided with expectations of analysts. As a whole, in the Eurozone the index grew to 51,4 points in comparison to 50,3 points in July, however growth to 51,3 points was expected.
This data was giving support to euro during trading session. As a result, EUR/USD pair opened day on a level of 1,3211, grew to 1,3226, and then was rolled away to a day minimum of 1,3183, having finished the trading session nearby.
It is necessary to admit that September will be very important month for the currency markets: all investors returned from summer holiday, trade volumes returned to normal, and the economic calendar is full of very important events. Among them elections in Australia, appointed to September 7; increase of a consumer tax in Japan; the solution of a question on a ceiling of a national debt of the USA; elections in Germany (on September 22) and, naturally, FOMC meeting on the monetary policy, planned for September 18-19. It will have the greatest value for currencies, and current week will help investors to be defined, whether to wait from the regulator turning of the program of stimulation.
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This morning support to the world markets was given by positive data from China. The index of business activity in production sector of China, counted by national bureau of statistics of the country, grew in August to 51 points comparable to 50,3 points month before. The similar index counted by HSBC bank, grew in August to 50,1 points in comparison with 47,7 points month before.
Statistics coming from other countries had in general mixed character. The index of business activity in production sector of Germany grew in August to 51,8 points in comparison with 50,7 points month before. Analysts expected index growth to 52 points. In France the similar index didn't change in comparison with the last month and made 49,7 points that coincided with expectations of analysts. As a whole, in the Eurozone the index grew to 51,4 points in comparison to 50,3 points in July, however growth to 51,3 points was expected.
This data was giving support to euro during trading session. As a result, EUR/USD pair opened day on a level of 1,3211, grew to 1,3226, and then was rolled away to a day minimum of 1,3183, having finished the trading session nearby.
It is necessary to admit that September will be very important month for the currency markets: all investors returned from summer holiday, trade volumes returned to normal, and the economic calendar is full of very important events. Among them elections in Australia, appointed to September 7; increase of a consumer tax in Japan; the solution of a question on a ceiling of a national debt of the USA; elections in Germany (on September 22) and, naturally, FOMC meeting on the monetary policy, planned for September 18-19. It will have the greatest value for currencies, and current week will help investors to be defined, whether to wait from the regulator turning of the program of stimulation.
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2013/09/02
August in USA ended on a bear note
On Friday, 30th of August, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a moderate decrease of all main indexes. The last trading day of August passed the same way as the whole month - August loss of the Standard & Poor's 500 index declared maximum monthly loss since May of last year. Possible invasion of the western forces to Syria has been main discussed question. We will remind that the USA lost one of allies in respect of invasion into this hot spot, parliament of Great Britain made the decision against military operation in Syria. The United States during the day didn't make a final decision of further actions, though the American intelligence services have sufficient proofs of use of the chemical weapon by a ruling mode of Syria.
Following the results of trading session the indicator of blue chips - Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 30,64 points to level of 14810,31 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,32%% to a level of 1632,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries - Nasdaq Composite went to a minus 0,84%% and reached a level of 3589,87 points.
In the commodity market, October futures for NYMEX fell in price for 0,5%% to level of $107,65 for barrel; gold with delivery in December on COMEX fell in the price by 0,8%% to level of $1396,1 for troy ounce.
This week there will be many events which can affect dynamics of the market. Press conference of the head of European Central Bank - Mr. Dragi, the two-day summit G-20 in St. Petersburg, the report on employment for August in the USA. Today was announced an index of production activity in China for August (final) from HSBC-bank - growth to 51,0 in comparison with 50,3 in July is recorded. The Chinese governmental data which were issued a week ago, also showed growth of production activity. It is a little strange that the Chinese share index doesn't grow, but indexes of Hong Kong and Japan on the contrary show rapid growth.
From the European regulator changes in a monetary policy are not expected this time. The macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone began to improve recently, and the main bank of the Eurozone has possibility to take a break. However Mario Dragi's traditional press conference will be object of close attention. The head of European Central Bank made more than once the sharp statements considerably influencing dynamics of EUR/USD, and therefore we recommend to be during this period out of the market and to watch development of events from outside.
From the point of view of the technical analysis of EUR/USD pair, it made an attempt to change settled ascending trend since the beginning of July. For overcoming level of 1,34, it doesn't have enough fundamental preconditions and if Mario Dragi will not provide them, it can test support on 1,3140.
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Following the results of trading session the indicator of blue chips - Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 30,64 points to level of 14810,31 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,32%% to a level of 1632,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries - Nasdaq Composite went to a minus 0,84%% and reached a level of 3589,87 points.
In the commodity market, October futures for NYMEX fell in price for 0,5%% to level of $107,65 for barrel; gold with delivery in December on COMEX fell in the price by 0,8%% to level of $1396,1 for troy ounce.
This week there will be many events which can affect dynamics of the market. Press conference of the head of European Central Bank - Mr. Dragi, the two-day summit G-20 in St. Petersburg, the report on employment for August in the USA. Today was announced an index of production activity in China for August (final) from HSBC-bank - growth to 51,0 in comparison with 50,3 in July is recorded. The Chinese governmental data which were issued a week ago, also showed growth of production activity. It is a little strange that the Chinese share index doesn't grow, but indexes of Hong Kong and Japan on the contrary show rapid growth.
From the European regulator changes in a monetary policy are not expected this time. The macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone began to improve recently, and the main bank of the Eurozone has possibility to take a break. However Mario Dragi's traditional press conference will be object of close attention. The head of European Central Bank made more than once the sharp statements considerably influencing dynamics of EUR/USD, and therefore we recommend to be during this period out of the market and to watch development of events from outside.
From the point of view of the technical analysis of EUR/USD pair, it made an attempt to change settled ascending trend since the beginning of July. For overcoming level of 1,34, it doesn't have enough fundamental preconditions and if Mario Dragi will not provide them, it can test support on 1,3140.
Click here https://secure.mayzus.com/partner/regist to start earning money on Forex!
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