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2013/12/17
The stock market began week on a positive note
On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the moderate growth of the main indexes after the largest week loss since August. Traders since the beginning of week are concentrating on starting meeting of FED and try to find in published macroeconomic statistics a key to an outcome of this meeting and make their mind if actually volumes of QE will be reduced or will be still kept on the present levels. We will remind that the beginning of cutting off the program of quantitative easing at December meeting are expected by about a third of economists, the others are still pointing on March meeting.
As for the macroeconomic statistical data published yesterday, it became known that industrial production in November increased by 1,1%% at average forecasts of growth for 0,5%%, October growth rates of industrial production were reconsidered from -0,1%% to 0,1%%. Labor productivity increased in the third quarter for 3%% whereas the increase for 2,8%% was expected.
Following the results of the trading session the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,82%% to level of 15884,83 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,63%% to a level of 1786,54 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,71%% and reached a level of 4029,52 points.
Leading stock indexes of Europe on Monday also grew against favorable corporate news and macroeconomic statistics. In leaders of growth there was the German DAX index which has added 1,7%% in a context of published strong indicators of business activity in industrial sector of Germany. The corresponding PMI index of production sector of Germany grew in December to maximum levels for the last 2,5 years that speaks about essential increase of activity in the German industry which could pull out to a positive zone all European economy, despite a worsening situation in France. The summary index of business activity of the Eurozone, characterizing situation in the industry, and in a services sector, grew to 52,1 points from 51,7 points month earlier, which testifies to proceeding recovery of the European economy as a whole.
In the commodity market prices for oil are slightly down and prices for precious metals are a bit adding in value. Brent is traded on a level of 109,32$ per barrel and losing 0,08%%, WTI is decreasing for 0,16%% up to the level of 97,61$ per barrel. Gold and silver are up for 0,03%% and 0,16%% accordingly, bargaining next to the levels of 1244,76$ and 20,13$ per troy ounce.
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2013/12/16
Fears regarding reduction of QE continue to soar over stock market of the USA
The forthcoming week promises to be the most interesting for all leaving 2013. The head of FED, Ben Bernanke, will carry out, probably, the last meeting as the chairman and nobody excludes a possibility that he can finish his 7-year term with beginning of turning of the stimulating measures. Undoubtedly, even the probability of such outcome already presses on dynamics of stock markets, and the prospect to chop off New Year's rally can force Bernanke to reduce buying up volumes by only symbolical sum. However even in this case it will be enough to return demand for US dollar, especially against yen and the British pound.
The stock market of the USA spent Friday in the lateral range, having finished trading session with the minimum changes. However that decrease which the American stock indexes showed for the past week for 1,5-1,7%%, was maximum for the last 2 months. The sector of health care and telecoms appeared outsiders of week among the different sectors.
As the result trading session came to the end with Dow Jones adding 0,1%% and reaching level of 15755,36 points, S&P decreasing for 0,01%% up to the level of 1775,32 points and Nasdaq grew by 0,06%% up to the level of 4000,97 points. Sales also were caused by the publication of preliminary data on an index of business activity in the industry according to HSBC – the indicator decreased from 50,8 points in November to 50,5 points in December.
Leading stock indexes of Europe on Friday didn't show considerable changes. Following the results of a week they went down for 1,4-1,8%% against macroeconomic statistics and corporate news in the Eurozone which disappointed investors. Shares of the British insurance company RSA Insurance Group appeared in leaders of falling on Friday, having fallen for 7%% after messages on resignation of its executive director. Thus the British FTSE-100 index, having lost in a week 1,7%%, showed decrease the sixth week in a row.
During the day rather low volume of macroeconomic statistics from abroad is expected. In France there will be preliminary data on indexes of business activity in the industry and in a services sector for December. Similar indexes will be published in Germany, and on the Eurozone as a whole. In the USA reconsidered November dynamics of labor productivity, and industrial production for November will be published later during the day.
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2013/12/13
New ideas in the market didn't appear - QE still under a sight
On Thursday, the main European indexes were closed with a minus the third day in a raw. Running ahead of expectations of analysts statistics on a labor market of the USA couldn't calm investors, which are having worries regarding the turnings of QE.
The number of primary requests for unemployment benefits in the USA for the past week made 368 thousand against the forecast of 320 thousand, thus the previous value of an indicator was reconsidered towards increase from 298 thousand to 300 thousand.
The statistics leaving in the Eurozone had the mixed character. The central bank of Switzerland kept a key interest rate in the fourth quarter at former level of 0,25%% whereas analysts expected 0,13%%. For investors dynamics of such indicator, as the industrial production of the Eurozone which has decreased in October for 1,1%% against forecasts of increase of 0,3%% became a surprise.
Following the results of trading day the regional STXE 600 indicator weakened for 0,98%% and was closed on a level of 310,24 points. The British FTSE 100 index decreased for 0,96%% whereas the main index of stock market of Germany DAX rolled down for 0,66%%, and the French CAC 40 - for 0,43%%.
The American markets also had a weak day, S&P 500 index continued the decrease and entered a key zone of support. The area 1770-1780 is the area which supports index from steep falling, in case of braking it – index has a possibility for faster decrease. As a result of the trading day, S&P 500 has lost 0,38%% and decreased up to the level of 1775,50 points; Dow Jones decreased for 0,66%% and finished trading day on a level of 15739,43 points, Nasdaq became weaker for 0,14%% and decreased up to the level of 3998,40 points.
Situation at the commodities market does not really differ from the stock markets, commodities are more flat but slightly pointing down. Price for Brent this morning is 108,52$ per barrel and is up for 0,13%%, WTI is at the level of 97,79$ per barrel losing 0,03%%. Gold and silver are losing 0,01%% and 0,20%% accordingly, traded on a levels of 1224,78$ and 19,41$ per troy ounce.
Today is going to be published just a little macroeconomic statistics. It is possible to note only data on the prices of producers in the USA.
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The number of primary requests for unemployment benefits in the USA for the past week made 368 thousand against the forecast of 320 thousand, thus the previous value of an indicator was reconsidered towards increase from 298 thousand to 300 thousand.
The statistics leaving in the Eurozone had the mixed character. The central bank of Switzerland kept a key interest rate in the fourth quarter at former level of 0,25%% whereas analysts expected 0,13%%. For investors dynamics of such indicator, as the industrial production of the Eurozone which has decreased in October for 1,1%% against forecasts of increase of 0,3%% became a surprise.
Following the results of trading day the regional STXE 600 indicator weakened for 0,98%% and was closed on a level of 310,24 points. The British FTSE 100 index decreased for 0,96%% whereas the main index of stock market of Germany DAX rolled down for 0,66%%, and the French CAC 40 - for 0,43%%.
The American markets also had a weak day, S&P 500 index continued the decrease and entered a key zone of support. The area 1770-1780 is the area which supports index from steep falling, in case of braking it – index has a possibility for faster decrease. As a result of the trading day, S&P 500 has lost 0,38%% and decreased up to the level of 1775,50 points; Dow Jones decreased for 0,66%% and finished trading day on a level of 15739,43 points, Nasdaq became weaker for 0,14%% and decreased up to the level of 3998,40 points.
Situation at the commodities market does not really differ from the stock markets, commodities are more flat but slightly pointing down. Price for Brent this morning is 108,52$ per barrel and is up for 0,13%%, WTI is at the level of 97,79$ per barrel losing 0,03%%. Gold and silver are losing 0,01%% and 0,20%% accordingly, traded on a levels of 1224,78$ and 19,41$ per troy ounce.
Today is going to be published just a little macroeconomic statistics. It is possible to note only data on the prices of producers in the USA.
****
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2013/12/11
Investors directed attention to the forthcoming meeting of FED
On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States of America finished the trading session in the negative territory. The main reason which has pushed indexes to go down were new doubts, whether the Congress of the USA will be able to accept the budget till 13th of December. It should be noted that, according to a number of experts, it will be difficult to agree in established periods especially as the arrangement on financing of the public expenditures works till 15th of January of next year, and the ceiling of a national debt is lifted till 7th of February.
From the middle of October the two-party commission under the leadership of heads of the budgetary committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate could not succeed to achieve significant progress in this question, thus statements of politicians are often very inconsistent. The probability of one more shutdown of the government isn't excluded, what really influences moods of the participants of the markets. Additionally to this, it is difficult to predict what outcome will be from the forthcoming meeting of FED which will take place on 17th and 18th of December. It is quite possible that next week the regulator will make the decision on reduction of the current program of quantitative easing.
There is existing also an opinion that if the special commission from representatives of republican and democratic parties nevertheless will agree by 13th of December, FED won't have any occasions to hesitate with QE3 reduction.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,33%% and was closed on a level of 15 973,13 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus for 0,32%% to level of 1 802,62 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased for 0,20%% to a level of 4 060,49 of point.
Key stock indexes of Europe also showed negative dynamics due to the same concerns and general uncertainty in the market. Following the results of the trading session, the key index of Great Britain FTSE 100 went down for 0,55%%, French CAC 40 lost 1,04%% and German DAX went to a minus for 0,88%%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,7%% and was closed on a mark 314,91 points. Thus the general negative dynamics wasn't supported only by Austria.
Commodities market is flat, Brent is increasing for 0,12%% this morning and is traded on a level of 109,26$ per barrel, WTI is losing just 0,02%% at a price of 98,64$ per barrel. Gold and silver are losing 0,31%% and 0,14%% accordingly, being of a prices of 1257,17$ and 20,29$ per troy ounce.
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From the middle of October the two-party commission under the leadership of heads of the budgetary committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate could not succeed to achieve significant progress in this question, thus statements of politicians are often very inconsistent. The probability of one more shutdown of the government isn't excluded, what really influences moods of the participants of the markets. Additionally to this, it is difficult to predict what outcome will be from the forthcoming meeting of FED which will take place on 17th and 18th of December. It is quite possible that next week the regulator will make the decision on reduction of the current program of quantitative easing.
There is existing also an opinion that if the special commission from representatives of republican and democratic parties nevertheless will agree by 13th of December, FED won't have any occasions to hesitate with QE3 reduction.
Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,33%% and was closed on a level of 15 973,13 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went to a minus for 0,32%% to level of 1 802,62 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq decreased for 0,20%% to a level of 4 060,49 of point.
Key stock indexes of Europe also showed negative dynamics due to the same concerns and general uncertainty in the market. Following the results of the trading session, the key index of Great Britain FTSE 100 went down for 0,55%%, French CAC 40 lost 1,04%% and German DAX went to a minus for 0,88%%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,7%% and was closed on a mark 314,91 points. Thus the general negative dynamics wasn't supported only by Austria.
Commodities market is flat, Brent is increasing for 0,12%% this morning and is traded on a level of 109,26$ per barrel, WTI is losing just 0,02%% at a price of 98,64$ per barrel. Gold and silver are losing 0,31%% and 0,14%% accordingly, being of a prices of 1257,17$ and 20,29$ per troy ounce.
****
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2013/12/10
Markets start to move carefully before meeting of FED
In the stock markets proceeded careful growth. In the morning of the quotation of risky assets were supported by data on growth of the Chinese export in November for 12,7%% after growth of 5,6%% in October. These data were regarded not only as positive for the economy, but also as the testimony of growing world demand. It should be noted also that investors don't hurry to draw conclusions about earlier beginning of turning of stimulating measures from FED after obtaining strong data on gross domestic product of the USA for the III quarter and strong statistics on the American labor market in November. So, the index of the wide market S&P 500 reached yesterday a new historical record.
As a result of the trading session, Dow Jones increased for 0,03%% up to the level of 16025,53 points; Nasdaq added 0,15%% and reached level of 4068, 75 points; S&P 500 increased for 0,18%% up to the level of 1808,37 points.
Yesterday markets also received opinion from two representatives of FED, both of them were relatively positive. In a little more positive for the markets context there was a statement of head of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, who in the current year has the right to vote at meetings. He reported that the last improvements on a labor market increase probability of fast reduction of stimulating measures, however these actions have to be careful as inflation is at minimum levels. Statements of head of FED of Dallas, Richard Fischer, who will acquire a vote for FOMC next year were surer. He called the current time suitable to start turning of volumes of QE, however explained that any operations of the regulator have to proceed in the conditions of full clarity and transparency for the markets.
According to recent polls of Bloomberg about 34%% of economists and analysts expect the beginning of turning of volumes of quantitative incentives at December meeting, thus the vast majority is sure that at the end of the I quarter 2014 the volume of purchases of assets from FED will be less from current 85 billion dollars a month.
The beginning of new week in the commodity markets passed negatively, pressure on which has been amplified due to a number of the objective reasons. Quotations of oil and the majority of metals yesterday considerably decreased after the publication of statistical data from China and Germany. The volume of import to China in November slowed down growth rates from 7,6%% to 5,3%% in annual expression. Besides, industrial production volume in Germany in October unexpectedly decreased to minimum since May values, having fallen for 1,2%% in September at forecasts of growth for 0,9%%. Additional pressure upon oil quotations was put by the first meeting which has begun in Vienna of experts of Iran and "six" countries concerning development of mechanisms of implementation of the interim agreement reached at the end of November.
Brent is traded on a level of 109,63$ per barrel adding 0,45%%, WTI is on a price of 97,95$ per barrel increasing for 0,40%%. Gold is up for 0,87%% at price of 1244,98$ per troy ounce, silver is trying to get back what has been lost last week and is up for 1,22%% at a price of 19,94$ per troy ounce.
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As a result of the trading session, Dow Jones increased for 0,03%% up to the level of 16025,53 points; Nasdaq added 0,15%% and reached level of 4068, 75 points; S&P 500 increased for 0,18%% up to the level of 1808,37 points.
Yesterday markets also received opinion from two representatives of FED, both of them were relatively positive. In a little more positive for the markets context there was a statement of head of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, who in the current year has the right to vote at meetings. He reported that the last improvements on a labor market increase probability of fast reduction of stimulating measures, however these actions have to be careful as inflation is at minimum levels. Statements of head of FED of Dallas, Richard Fischer, who will acquire a vote for FOMC next year were surer. He called the current time suitable to start turning of volumes of QE, however explained that any operations of the regulator have to proceed in the conditions of full clarity and transparency for the markets.
According to recent polls of Bloomberg about 34%% of economists and analysts expect the beginning of turning of volumes of quantitative incentives at December meeting, thus the vast majority is sure that at the end of the I quarter 2014 the volume of purchases of assets from FED will be less from current 85 billion dollars a month.
The beginning of new week in the commodity markets passed negatively, pressure on which has been amplified due to a number of the objective reasons. Quotations of oil and the majority of metals yesterday considerably decreased after the publication of statistical data from China and Germany. The volume of import to China in November slowed down growth rates from 7,6%% to 5,3%% in annual expression. Besides, industrial production volume in Germany in October unexpectedly decreased to minimum since May values, having fallen for 1,2%% in September at forecasts of growth for 0,9%%. Additional pressure upon oil quotations was put by the first meeting which has begun in Vienna of experts of Iran and "six" countries concerning development of mechanisms of implementation of the interim agreement reached at the end of November.
Brent is traded on a level of 109,63$ per barrel adding 0,45%%, WTI is on a price of 97,95$ per barrel increasing for 0,40%%. Gold is up for 0,87%% at price of 1244,98$ per troy ounce, silver is trying to get back what has been lost last week and is up for 1,22%% at a price of 19,94$ per troy ounce.
****
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