2014/04/29

The Markets Look Forward To Decisions From The FED

Yesterday, important macroeconomic statistical reports were not published in the U.S., which resulted in no significant influence to the development throughout the trading session, and, as a result, indices closed the trading session with a moderate growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0,53% to the level of 16448,74 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, grew 0,32% to the level of 1869,43 points, and the Nasdaq Composite went to a minus by just 0,03%, and reached the level of 4074,4 points.

Oil prices are moving in a positive direction, Brent adds 0,61% and is traded on a level of $108,77 per barrel, while WTI is up 0,54% and is bargaining at a price of $101,39 per barrel. Prices of precious metals are losing in value, gold and silver are down by 0,78% and 1,11% accordingly, traded on prices of $1288.89 per troy ounce for gold, and $19,37 for silver.


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2014/04/28

Investors Are Waiting For FED Meeting This Week

The beginning of the week has again been influenced by the situation in Ukraine, where intensity continues to strengthen. During Friday’s telephone conference leaders of France, the USA, Germany and Italy, discussed the possibility of an introduction of new sanctions against Russia, thus heads of all four countries believe that the Russian Federation, according to the accepted arrangements, have to take action towards the de-escalation of the conflict, and refuse provocative statements. At the same time, the U.S. are easy going when it comes to the introduction of new sanctions, but European countries are not really willing to proceed with the same attitude, as they are going to become safer due to these actions, and are affected by the situation much more than the U.S.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index finished the trading session with a loss of 0,75% and was closed on a level of 16378,05 points, the index of the wide market, S&P 500, went to a minus by 0,76% and reached the level of 1864,33 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, fell by 1,68% to the level of 4078,79 points.

European indices also finished the trading week rather differently, but mainly in negative territory. The British FTSE 100 lost 0,26%, the French index, CAC 40, added 0,80%, and the German DAX went to a minus by 1,54%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased, in turn, by 0,80% and was closed on a level of 333,5 points. This morning, indices opened the trading week at almost the same levels they closed with on Friday. The FTSE 100 adds 0,26%, the DAX index adds 0,27% so far, and the CAC 40 grows by 0,19%.

Today, the economic calendar is rather empty, and there aren't any important macroeconomic reports expected, but special attention should be paid to the results of the meeting of the FED, results which we will be able to see on Wednesday the 30th of April, 2014. On Thursday, the majority of the stock markets will be closed in relation to the celebration of Labour Day.

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2014/04/24

Forecast April 24

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its decision on the interest rate at midnight. Experts think that it will grow from 2.75% to 3%.

Germany will publish a whole block of stats at 11 a.m.: business expectations, business climate by IFO and current assessment.

Retail sales statistics will be published in Britain at 11:30 a.m.

A number of orders for durables will be announced at 3:30 p.m.

2014/04/23

Results From The Largest American Companies Are Pushing Indices Up

Reports from the largest American companies who demonstrated good quarterly results, are pushing indices up. Due to this, optimism continues in the American stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index raised 0,4% to the level of 16514,37 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,41% to the level of 1879,55 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a plus on 0,97% and reached the level of 4161,46 points.

European stock markets also had a rather positive trading session. The British index, FTSE 100, grew by 0,85%, the French CAC 40 added 1,18%, and the German DAX went to a plus on 2,02%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by 1,4% and was closed on the level of 337,03 points. This morning, indices are bargaining at the previous levels reached, and positive attitudes were also brought on by published macroeconomic data.

The index of business activity in the services sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,1 points in April, whilst analysts were only expecting an increase to the level of 52,4 points. The previous value was on the level of 52,2 points. The index of business activity in the industry sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,3 points in April, moving up from the level of 53,0 points, recorded last month. Analysts were expecting the level of 53,0 points only.

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Forecast for April 23

The investors, who trade AUDUSD, should pay attention to the CPI publication at 4:30 a.m. (GMT+3). ‘Aussie’ will be volatile.

Right after that, traders will switch their attention to the publication of Manufacturing PMI by HSBC. Current index value is located at 48.0 points. When the PMI is below 50.0, it indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining, which leads to a decrease of demand for raw assets. If index appears to be worse than a forecast, it can weaken AUD’s positions.

USA, Germany and France will publish their Manufacturing PMIs during the day. Eurozone will do the same.

Traders interested in pound should pay attention to the publication of minutes from the last Bank of England’s meeting. Info should be published at 11:30 a.m. CBI Industrial Trends Orders will be published at 1 p.m.

New Housing Sales will be announced in the USA by the end of the day.

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2014/04/18

Meeting In Geneva Brought Positive Results

Yesterday, what was deemed as the most important event of the day, brought positive and optimistic results. Negotiations went on for 7 hours when only a 2,5 hour meeting was planned. The involved parties came to an agreement an signed the Geneva statement of April the 17th, in which it was declared there was a need to accept the initial, concrete steps on the de-escalation of intensity, and establish safety for all citizens of Ukraine. In the signed document, all the members of the meeting accepted the fact that it is necessary to disarm all illegal paramilitary groups, to return occupied buildings to their legitimate owners, and to free all of the seized squares and streets across the entire Ukraine.

Even though the results of the meeting in Geneva were considered to be very optimistic, the situation in the country remains tentative and there is still a long way to go until the conflict is resolved.

The Ministry of Labor of the U.S. presented data on the American labor market. The number of primary requests for unemployment benefits grew for the week by only 2 thousand, to the level of 304 thousand, whilst analysts were expecting an increase of up to 315 thousand. The average amount of applications for the last 4 weeks, as a result, fell to 312 000, having reached the lowest value since October 2007. Additionally, the index of business activity in the manufacturing industry of the FED of Philadelphia, grew in April to 16,6 points against the forecast of 10,0 points.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost just 0,1% and finished the trading session at the level of 16408,54 points. In turn, the Nasdaq Composite index grew by 0,23% to the level of 4095,52 points, and the S&P 500 added 0,14% and reached a level of 1864,85 points.

European stock markets were also boosted by positive statistics from the U.S. and decisions taken in relation to Ukraine. From the statistics in the region, it is possible to note the dynamics of the price index of producers of Germany for March, which decreased by 0,3% on a monthly expression, and 0,9% on an yearly expression, whereas analysts predicted zero change in the monthly calculation and a decrease of 0,7% based over a year.

Following the results of the trading session, the British FTSE 100 added 0,62%, the French CAC 40 grew by 0,59%, and the German DAX went to plus on 0,99%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by 0,5% and was closed on the level of 332,43 points.

Today, activity in the market is going to be lower than usual in connection with the day off in Europe, the USA, Australia, and Hong Kong.

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2014/04/17

The Conflict Concerning Ukraine Is Again Under The Spotlight

Yesterday, stock markets managed to have another positive trading session, which gave indices ground for an increase, even though the published macroeconomic statistical data was not really positive. Building permits dropped from the level of last month to 0,990 million and appeared to be lower than predictions of 1,008 million. The Capacity Utilization Rate, in turn, showed an increase, when analytics expected a decrease, and it finally made 79,2%. Industrial Production dropped from the level of last month, but appeared to be better than predictions making 0,7%.

Also, a positive attitude was brought to the markets by the speech from the head of the FED. During the speech in the economic club of New York, Janet Yellen declared that the FED intends to carry out monetary support for a rather long period of time, in order to promote a smooth economic recovery.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index grew by 1% to the level of 16424, 85 points, the S&P 500 added 1,05% and reached a level of 1862,31 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1,29% and is now traded on the level of 4086,22 points.

Attention should also be paid to the growth of prices of oil. The difficult, semi-military situation around the conflict between Ukraine and Russia pushed prices of oil to go up. Kiev accuses Moscow of attempts of destabilization of the internal political processes in the country. In turn, NATO declared their intention to strengthen the military presence in Eastern Europe. As a result of all these speculations, the price of Brent flew up on Wednesday to $110,00 per barrel, traded this morning on the level of $109,77 per barrel, and adding 0,16%. WTI reached yesterday's price of $105,00 per barrel, traded this morning on the price of $103,20 per barrel, and is currently adding 0,17%.

Prices of precious metals are, in turn, losing in value. Gold is falling by 0,38% and is traded on the level of $1298,61 per troy ounce, silver is down 0,45%, and bargaining at the level of $19,55 per troy ounce.

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2014/04/14

Negative Moods Prevail In The Markets

Friday's trading session continued the correction which began on Thursday, and indices closed the trading week mainly in the red zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0,89% and was closed on the level of 16026,75 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0,95% to the level of 1815,69 points, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0,34%, falling to the level of 3999,73 points.

The question in relation to the current situation in Ukraine is again under investors attention, and is resulting in nervousness on the markets. Over the weekend, the situation did not change and the present authorities of the country are ready to perform a full-scale military operation on the suppression of the restless regions in the southeast of the country. A special session of the UN Security Council, called at the initiative of the Russian Federation, did not bring any positive results as the participants could not come to an agreement.

As a result, prices of oil are continuing to grow this morning, adding 0,85% on Brent, and 0,81% on WTI, traded on $108,31 and $103,45 per barrel accordingly. Precious metals are also traded positively, gold adds 0,59% traded on a level of $1326,74 per troy ounce, and silver is growing by 0,54% bargaining next to the level of $20,05 per troy ounce.

One more interesting event which occurred over the weekend was the meeting of the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, and governing bodies of the IMF and WB, which took place on Saturday. The main subject that was discussed was the risk of a deflation in the EU, mainly due to the growth of the exchange rate of the Euro. It was declared that in order to decrease that, changes in monetary policy of the regulator will be required.

Thus, verbal interventions which are urged to contain the Euro's growth still continue, but, of course, if the currency pair will reach the level of 1,40, a decrease in interest rates in the region will be inevitable. As a result of this information, the EUR/USD currency pair has opened the trading week with a gap down, and at this moment is traded on the level of 1,3851.

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2014/04/11

The Stock Market Of The U.S. Outlined The Correction

There is an impression that the markets are moving up and down, without having the opportunity to decide on a further direction. One day, indices are growing, another day, they are decreasing, thereby leveling all growth of the previous sessions.

Yesterday, the European indices finished the trading day in different directions. At the beginning of the trading session, investors won due to positive news from the USA. After that, some of the indices began to fall, due to the fact that there was not a lot of macroeconomic statistical data published. As a result, the index of the London stock exchange, the FTSE 100, grew by 0,1%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange, the CAC 40, lost 0,66%, and the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange, DAX, decreased by 0,55%.

A pessimistic mood began in Europe and was followed by American indices. We saw a substantial increase in the price of indices on Wednesday, but it seems that after that, stock markets decided to have a correction. A push factor was the statistical data on export and import in China, which appeared to be extremely lower than the predictions of analysts. Import of the country made a number of minus 11,3%, at an expected growth of 2,4%. Export appeared to be minus 6,6% at the expected 4,0%.

However, the statistical data coming from the U.S. was of a positive character, but indices could not find strength to move up. The number of primary requests for unemployment benefits in a week, appeared to be slightly less than expectations on 320 thousand, and made a number of 300 thousand. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 1,62% to the level of 16170,22 points, the S&P 500 lost 2,09% and reached a level of 1833,08 points, and the Nasdaq Composite had the biggest loss of the day and decreased by 3,1% to the level of 4054,11 points.

Prices of commodities are stable. Brent and WTI are losing 0,26% and 0,30%, traded on levels of $107,24 and $102,07 per barrel. Gold is flat, traded on a price of $1320,86 per troy ounce. Silver is down by 0,24% at $20,04 per troy ounce.

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2014/04/08

Markets Underwent Massive Sales

On Monday, the American stock market had another losing trading session, and closed with a substantial fall in the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1,02% to the level of 16245,87 points, Standard & Poor's 500 lost 1,08% and was closed on the level of 1845,04 points, and the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq Composite, was down by 1,16% and reached the level of 4079,75 points.

For a long time now, analysts have been discussing the correction in the American stock market. This time, the push factor could be the upcoming reporting season, which will start in America at the end of this week. According to predictions and different estimates, reporting for the first quarter will be weaker than for the last, and in general the reporting season will be the weakest in the past two years.

The point is that we have witnessed for more than one quarter, a fall in revenue growth of the companies, but U.S. indices have continued to show growth and are updating annual and historical highs. Now, it is clearly visible that the discrepancy among the yield growth of the companies and the dynamics of the growth of the stock market indices, have reached unrealistically large quantities. So, in general, the correction in the American stock market is obviously required, because to inflate the bubble continuously is impossible.

The European trading session was also very disappointing and indices finished the day in the red zone. The British index, FTSE 100, lost 1,1%, France's CAC 40 decreased by 1,1% and Germany's DAX went down by 1,9%. The Regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, decreased by 1,2% and was closed on the level of 334,96 points. Today’s trading session is also going towards the negative territory - DAX is losing 0,73%, FTSE 100 is decreasing by 0,72% and CAC 40 is falling for 0,60% currently.

Prices of commodities are recovering slightly from the levels reached yesterday, Brent and WTI are increasing by 0,47% and 0,67% and are traded on prices of $106,31 and $100,45 per barrel. Gold and silver are up by 1,04% and 0,90%, traded on prices of $1311,83 and $20,09 perr troy ounce.

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2014/04/07

Markets Are Digesting Last Weeks Events

The last trading week was filled with important economic events and publications of macroeconomic statistical data, which influenced the situation in the stock and currency markets.

European stock markets finished the week rather optimistically, and by the end of the trading session, the British index, FTSE 100, and Germany's DAX, increased by 0,70% and the French CAC 40 added 0,79%. The regional indicator STXE 600 increased, in turn, by 0,60% and was closed at the highest level since January 2008 at 339,18 points, having added around 1,60% within a week.

At the same time, the situation in the American stock market was not as positive and finished in negative territory. Mainly, it was pushed down by weak statistics. The labor market data appeared to be worse than the consensus forecast. Last month 192 thousand jobs were created, against the expected 200 thousand. Additionally, the unemployment rate remained at 6,7% , although analysts predicted a drop to 6,6%.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0,96% and was closed on a level of 16412,71 points, the S&P 500 fell by 1,25% to the level of 1865,09 points, and the biggest loss of the day was obtained by Nasdaq Composite Index, which lost 2,60% and was closed on the level of 4127,73 points.

Commodities are also down this morning, Brent and WTI are losing 1,05% and 0,59% accordingly, traded on prices of $105,51 and $99,87 per barrel. Gold is down by 0,24% on the level of $1300,41 per troy ounce, and silver is traded on a price of $19,86 per troy ounce and is decreasing by 0,45%.

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2014/04/03

Outcome Of The ECB Meeting Will Have Investors Attention

Stock markets again pleased the participants of the markets and closed one more trading day with an increase.
According to the published figures from the Institute of ADP, employment in the United States during last month increased by 191 thousand, which almost reached the expectations of analysts at 195 thousands. Additionally, factory orders in February increased by 1,6%, when 1,2% was expected.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0,24% up to the level of 16573,00 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index grew by 0,29% and was closed on a level of 1890,90 points, while the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq Composite, moved up by 0,20% and reached the level of 4276,46 points.

European indices also conducted a positive trading session, continuing their positive trend. The British index, FTSE 100, rose by 0,1%, France's CAC 40 added 0,09%, while Germany's DAX increased by 0,2%. The regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, rose by 0,17% and was closed on the level of 336.93 points.

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Markets Are Preparing For The Meeting Of The ECB

The U.S. market finished the trading session in positive territory, taking into consideration the increase in the published data on the ISM report, which showed an increase of up to 53,7 points from 53,2 points. Published data appeared to be better than last month, although it was a bit worse than the predictions of analysts on the level of 54,0 points.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0,46% and reached the level of 16532,61 points, the S&P 500 index rose by 0,70% to the level of 1885,52 points, and the index of tech-companies, Nasdaq, jumped up by 1,64% and was closed on the level of 4268,04 points.

Moderate optimism prevailed at the European stock markets. In Europe, investors are still not in a rush to make important decisions before the upcoming ECB meeting. Analysts and investors are trying to anticipate the expected decisions and possible monetary incentives in relation to the slowdown of inflation in the region.

Yesterday the PMI index of several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole, was published. According to the data, business activity in the leading countries of the Union was worse than market expectations. Germany made 53,7 points against the expected 53,8, and the United Kingdom made 55,3 points against expectations of 56,7 points. The Eurozone PMI industry, nevertheless, coincided with the forecast and reached the level of 53 points. As a result, the index of the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE100, grew by 0,82 %, the French CAC40 added 0,80% and the German DAX, 0,5%.

Quotes of oil fell during yesterday’s trading session and this morning are traded on $105,58 for Brent, and $98,89 for WTI, bargaining next to the levels reached yesterday.

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2014/04/01

Yellen Stated That The U.S. Economy Is Still Very Weak

Trading week started rather optimistically. American indexes added around 1% after the speech given by new head of FED, Janet Yellen. She has commented on the economic situation in the United States. Yellen acknowledged that the U.S. economy remains to be sluggish and more likely it will require incentives for longer period.

As, a result Dow Jones Industrial Average index grew by 0,82% and reached level of 16457,66 points, Nasdaq Composite index added 1,04% and has finished trading session on a level of 4198,99 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,79% up to the level of 1872,34 points.

European stock markets also were traded in the positive territory, but have decreased right before the closure of the trading session. Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0,34%. This morning indexes opened trading session in a green zone, DAX is growing for 0,41%, FTSE 100 is adding around 0,39%, CAC 40 adds 0,55%.

Optimism to the markets in the morning also has been brought by statistics from China. The official PMI index in March increased from 50,2 to 50,3 points, analysts were expecting that the index should decline up to 50,1 points. However, according to HSBC, the index of business activity in China fell from 48,1 to 48 points.

Situation in the commodities market remains to be stable, but not really optimistic in relation to further growth. Brent and WTI are losing 0,09% and 0,27% accordingly, traded on a price of 107,56$ and 100,55$ for barrel. Gold is up for 0,26% bargaining next to the level of 1287,12$ for troy ounce. Silver is up for 0,56% on a price of 19,86$ for troy ounce.

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