2013/11/04

The markets open month having made a good start

The Dow Jones index raised on 0.45%% to 15615.55 points, the gain in a week made 0.3%%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised on 0.29%%, having closed at the level of 1761.64 points, and having gained in a week just 0.1%%. The Nasdaq Composite index raised on 0.06%% to value of 3922.04 points, having lowered within a week on 0.5%%.

On Friday were published only one important macroeconomic news across the USA - an assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by Institute of management of deliveries of the USA, in October grew to the maximum value since April, 2011 having reached level of 56.4 points, then analytics were predicting decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering all that situation which we could observe in October in connection with threat of a default. It should be noted that this index the 5th month in a row stays on a level above 50 points which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive of the American industrial data was supported by higher, than it was expected, growth rates of industrial activity in China in October.

The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing down going trend. The price of futures of gold on Friday fell for 10.50 dollars or 0.9%% to a value of 1313.20 dollars for troy ounce. This morning gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price owing to essential strengthening of positions of dollar in a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of EUR/USD currency pair. Factor that FRS in the final document of the last meeting didn't exclude possibility of reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year also has been a significant factor, pushing gold down. As a total, gold for a week lost 2.9%%. Due to the falling of prices of gold, the world's largest gold-mining company the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%%, and the leader in the USA and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining receded for 4.7%%.

The price of Brent is on a level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on a price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to minimum levels since June 21st, due to the strengthening of dollar and continuous growth of its stocks within last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%%.

The upcoming week is the first week of new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.

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2013/11/01

Investors continue to digest results of FED meeting

The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a raw. Dow Jones decreased for 0,47%% and has been traded on the level of 15545,75 points, S&P500 fell to level of 1756,54 points losing 0,36%%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0,27%% being at the end of the day at the level of 3919,17 points. Main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for time now all statistics is perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.

Yesterday investors have been waiting for the results of FED meeting and now continue to digest results of it, trying to find in the text anything which can outline when QE-3 program will start to be reduced.  A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but already in January 2014 by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for full turning by September, 2014.

American news do not really bother investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033,9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18,67%%.

However it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular a situation with euro strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on a further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned to be quite weak – only increased uncertainty in relation to Euro.

Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of Euro. Earlier during a week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that decrease in a rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank can again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient level. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that process of recovery proceeds unstably.

As a result, pair from level of opening on1,3733 came down to a minimum of 1,3583, having finished the day around 1,36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on a level of 1,35610.

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2013/10/30

The whole world expects optimism from FRS decisions

The American trading session again ended reaching new historical maxima. S&P 500 updates records the third session in a row, NASDAQ is on a maximum levels since September, 2000. Again weak statistics have been giving support to the markets and was pushing indexes to go up. Retails in the USA decreased in September by 0,1%%, then growth of 0,1%% has been expected. The index of consumer confidence of Conference Board fell to 71,2 from 79,7.

It is natural that this published statistics is leading investors to buy more before FRS meeting. The majority of participants of the market doesn't expect any changes in the volume of the quantitative program. It is also worth remembering the prices of houses. The S&P/Case-Shiller index in August showed a rise of 12.8%% in prices for residential real estate in 20 main city formations of the USA. Just during the August price grew by +0,9%%.

The Asian markets are also full of optimism. MSCI Asia-Pacific in Tokyo rose by 0,5%%. Industrial production in Japan grew in September. This morning Nikkei 225 grew up for 1,03%%, and Shanghai Composite adds  0,76%%.

As to the commodity market, then here gold is not moving, seems to be waiting for FRS decision. Quotations decreased on Tuesday and this morning gold is traded on a price of 1346,27$ per troy ounce adding 0,06%%. Even reserves of SPDR Gold Trust didn't change. Oil also is decreasing second day in a raw, especially Light having losing 0,44%% and traded on a price of 97,77$ per barrel. Brent is up for 0,12%% at a price of 109,14$ per barrel.

Today it is necessary to pay attention to the following macroeconomic events like unemployment in Germany, indexes of expectations and business climate in the Eurozone, the indicator of employment of ADP Services, data on consumer inflation in the USA, data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on stocks and consumption of oil and oil products. And of course the results of the FED meeting, which have been awaited by participants of the market for the last two weeks.

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2013/10/29

The dollar continues insignificant strengthening

On Monday, October 28, the stock market of the United States finished trading session almost next to the zero levels. Following the results of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,01%% to the level of 15568,93 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,13%% to a level of 1762,11 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus for 0,08%% and reached a level of 3940,13 points. It is quite interesting that the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 is on a way to have the most advantageous year in a decade.

As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, the data on industrial production for September increased by 0,6%% at average forecasts of growth for 0,4%%. However it is impossible to tell that this fact influenced behaviour of investors - all are absorbed by thought that in any case October events removed the beginning of turning of QE till the next year.

In the commodity market futures for Brent are losing this morning 0,48%% traded on a price of 109,09$ per barrel, Light is down to 98,35$ per barrel having decreased for 0,33%%. Gold and silver are up for 0,14%% and 0,18%% accordingly traded on a 1354,02$ and 22,58$ per troy ounce.

The trading in the currency market at opening of week proceeded rather quietly. Publication of the retails of the USA will become the main influencing factor for EUR/USD today. Despite a delay in the publication, it will be interesting to see at what level there was a consumer demand directly before a political play. If the indicator will be quite weak, it will become one more reason for purchase. Pair can break a record of recently reached 2-year maximum on a level of 1,3831 and direct to the area of 1,3870 – level which we have seen last time in November, 2011.


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2013/10/28

Meeting Of The FRS Will Become A Significant Event Of The Week

In the European markets, trading dynamics on Friday were rather different. Indices of the peripheral countries were decreasing. The Spanish IBEX 35 lost 1.01%, the Italian FTSE MIB decreased by 1.45%, and the others were bargaining without almost any change.

Last week was full of statistics, which were moving markets in different directions, due to the fact that the presented data had not been supporting any trend. The index of business climate of IFO in Germany in October, unexpectedly decreased for the first time in half a year, from 107.7 points to 107.4 points. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in September grew by 3.7%. Final value of the index of consumer confidence of Michigan university decreased to 73.2 points, which was below preliminary data and forecasts.

However, despite the statistics, the main American indices on Friday continued careful growth, having added about 0.4%. S&P 500 had just little to go in order to reach a new historical maximum, having increased by 0.44%, and traded on the level of 1759.77 points. Partly it was promoted again by corporate reporting.

The main event of the week will become the announcement of the results of the FED meeting. Nevertheless, from the American regulator nobody expects any changes in the monetary policy. Supposedly, the program of monetary easing will not change. Volumes of purchases of securities within the program of quantitative easing will be kept at the level of 85 billion a month. Since September, not enough data was published that was capable to change the macroeconomic picture in favor of the need to begin the reduction of monetary incentives. Moreover, the report on the labor market for October was slightly worse than expectations, which is an additional limiting factor.



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2013/10/25

Quarterly reports of the companies continue to please investors

Leading European and American indexes grew yesterday by 0,2-0,6%%, increase was promoted by good corporate reports and weak statistics on employment from the USA. Investors look on the macroeconomic indicators as on confirmation that stimulating policies and monetary easing program will be still kept. Unemployment benefit figures in the USA which have showed growth of number of the requests to 350 thousand, then only 330 thousand were predicted, definitely is an argument for longer period of QE.

In turn reports of the American companies continue to please investors. The report of Microsoft, published after closing of the trading session, affected a rise in prices of company papers for 7%% during an electronic trading session. On the average the profit of 217 companies which have already reported for the last quarter from the S&P 500 index has been better than market expectations in 77%% of cases, profit in 53%%.

Commodities are again weak today, prices of oil rise slightly on Friday, but finish week with essential decrease. Brent is traded on a price of 107,05$ per barrel increasing from yesterday only for 0,06%%, Light is up for 0,03%% at price of 97,14$. Since the beginning of this week Brent fell in price for 2,4%%, the cost of WTI fell by 3,3%% that is the maximum decrease since June. Gold and silver are losing 0,63%% and 1,77%% accordingly. The future contract on oil of the Brent brand bargains at the price of $107 for barrel, WTI - $96 for barrel.

In relation to EUR/USD, dollar again has been under a strong pressure and pair could from level of opening of 1,3774 move to a maximum on 1,3824. Nevertheless, data which has been published yesterday has been rather inconsistent, data from the Eurozone limited further movements. PMI in France in manufacturing sector left below 50 points level, and in a services sector – didn't hold on to forecasts. Indicators in Germany showed similar dynamic. As a result, pair was rolled away to the area of 1,38, but even after this disappointing figures -  EUR/USD feels quite confident. However if today's indicators of IFO will confirm decrease, it will return pair to the area of 1,3710.



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2013/10/24

9-day rally in Europe has been ended

Yesterday stock indexes finished trading session in a red zone. Weak quarter results of a number of the largest companies, and also Mario Dragi's statement for the forthcoming stress tests of banks became the main reason for a suspension of 9-day rally, the longest for the last 40 months.

Papers of the European banks were under strong pressure. The reason for that has been speech of the head of European Central Bank M.Dragi, who during his press conference stated rather rigidly that if the bank didn't pass a stress test, it needs to be bankrupted. This means that peripheral banks shouldn't count on the help from outside. I will remind that already in November, the European regulator will begin complex check of the financial institutions. Any bankruptcy even if it will be initiated by the government of the country, will promote sales of shares, especially in banking sector.

The British FTSE 100 receded for 0,32%%, French CAC 40 lost 0,81%% and German DAX weakened for 0,31%%.

Strangely enough, all these conversations had limited impact on EUR/USD. Analytics are stating that lately euro is in demand from Asian institutional investors which are reconsidering the currency reserves and are not believing in dollar. Pair from level of opening 1,3779 went down to a minimum of 1,3741 and this morning went throw the level of 1,38 and is traded on a level of 1,3815.

USA indexes also moderately decreased, however significant sales didn't happen. Following the results of the trading session the Dow Jones index decreased by 0,35%%, and S&P500 - for 0,49%%. The Chinese Shanghai Comp. decreasing by 0,2%%, and the Japanese Nikkei falling for 0,6%% are the outsiders of the day. In particular, it can be caused by the publication of preliminary data on an index of business activity in China according to the HSBC version - the indicator decreased to 50,9 points.

Today there will be one more chance to check, what economy is recovering more steadily. Data on business activity in manufacturing industry and in services sector of Eurozone and Germany will cause a great interest of the market participants. If business activity in both sectors will appear again above forecasts, demand for currency pair will increase. In case EUR/USD will break level of 1,3780, pair will direct to the area of 1,3840.



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2013/10/23

The statistics on a labor market of USA disappointed investors

Long-awaited September data on employment disappointed participants of the market, having shown a gain which has been much weaker than expectations. However it helped to strengthen opinion that at such sluggish dynamics of a labor market - FRS won't risk to displace the QE program.

The Ministry of Labour reported that employment in non-agricultural sectors increased by 148 thousands, then 180 thousands were forecasted. In the press release it has been noted that growth of the indicator was observed in construction, wholesale trade, transportation and warehouse sectors. Unemployment rate thus unexpectedly decreased to 7,2%% from 7,3%%. The average duration of working week remained at former level of 34,5 hours, but growth rates of an average hourly salary showed slower development - 0,1%% against expected 0,2%%.

As a result, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in 0,49%% plus on a level of 15467,66 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 0,57%% to the level of 1754,67 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq grew up for 0,24%% to a level of 3929,57 points.

Despite positive development on the stock markets, we could observe that on currency markets volatility read off scale and the dollar got under strong pressure. Euro could break the important level of 1,37 and continued its growth, having reached maximum at 1,3788. This morning, currency pair bargains near 1,3767. Tomorrow will be published PMI index of the Eurozone, if they will appear to be again above forecasts, it only will strengthen determination of the currency pair to continue it’s growth. After breakdown of the resistance level on 1,3780, currency pair will direct to the area based on 1,3840.

Commodities are decreasing in price today. Brent and Light are losing 0,32%% and 0,54%% accordingly, Light went below price of 98,00$ per barrel and is traded on a price of 97,77$ per barrel. Gold is traded on a price of 13336,78$ per troy ounce losing 0,43%% and silver is down for 0,31%% at price of 22,72$ per troy ounce.



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2013/10/22

Investors Look Forward To Data On The US Labor Market

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly.



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On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly. - See more at: https://www.mayzus.com/en/market-reviews/marketreview-5088.html#sthash.4pBbAun0.dpuf
On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly. - See more at: https://www.mayzus.com/en/market-reviews/marketreview-5088.html#sthash.4pBbAun0.dpuf

2013/10/21

Growth in the stock markets continues

New trading week begins rather quietly and without any surprises after weekend. On Friday the American market continued the growth, thanks to what index Dow Jones increased for 0,18%% reaching level of 15399,65 points, Nasdaq added 1,32%% and finished trading week on a level of 3914,28 points, S&P500 increased for 0,66%% up to the level of 1744,50 points.

In general, this continuous growth can be described with the bad effect on the economy of USA, while the politicians in Washington were unwilling to agree and solve matters. FRS will be compelled to prolong repayment of bonds without reduction of volumes, most likely, at least till February of the next year. Also we believe, today growth also will proceed.

Also successful quarter results of a number of the leading American companies are giving indexes power to move further up. Some of the companies which presented their quarterly results on Friday – extremely surprised markets. Google reported growth of quarter net profit for 36%%, for the first time the price of its shares passed through a level of 1000 dollars, having reached maximum cost at 1011 dollars.

As to the commodities market, then here oil and precious metals prices are quite stable. Brent this morning is losing just 0,08%% traded on a price of 109,85$ per barrel, Light is decreasing a bit more – traded on a price of 100,88$ per barrel and losing 0,23%%. Gold and Silver are up on 0,52%% and 1,39%% accordingly.

It is important to admit that despite the fact that the stock markets continues its growth, American dollar is under significant pressure for the last few weeks. Today EUR/USD currency pair is traded on a level of 1,3682. Upcoming week will be saturated on important macroeconomic statistics as public institutions of the USA resume work and will start publishing the releases passed during the previous weeks. We will see figures on sales volumes in the secondary market of real estate, Bureaus of labor statistics will deliver the report on quantity of new workplaces and unemployment rate. The released data might have significant influence on further development of the dollar.



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