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2014/05/29
Markets Forecast – Friday, May 30
Last day of the week will be very busy. Trading sessions will start with news form New Zealand, Japan and Australia. Japan, for example, will publish Household Spending, CPIs and Industrial Production numbers at 2:30 a.m.
European session will be slow again, but Canada will announce its GDP (monthly, quarterly and yearly) and RMPI – index that measures the change in price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. CAD is one of the “raw” currencies and depends on the market movements a lot. A higher than expected reading of the index should be taken as positive/bullish trend for “loonie”.
United States will close the week with publication of Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer data (Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment). News will be released right before the end of the weekly session (4:45 and 4:55 p.m.), so be careful and watch your deals on the volatile market.
2014/05/26
FORECAST - Tuesday, May 27
FORECAST - Tuesday, May 27
USA will catch up on Tuesday and release series of important news, including Core Durable Goods Orders and a Consumer Confidence Index.
The latter is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity.
Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism and should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Current forecast expects growth of the index from 82.3 to 83.0.
2014/05/07
FORECAST - Wednesday, May 7
Market will be volatile at 1:45 a.m. for the New Zealand dollar, when an unemployment level will be released.
JPY traders will pay attention to the Bank of Japan meeting minutes that will be published at 2:50 a.m.
Australian dollar will get volatile at 4:30 a.m., when retail sales numbers will be announced.
Euro will react to the publication of data about German factory orders and French statistics.
Jannet Yellen’s (the Chairman of FED) speech will become a key event of the day. It will start at 5 p.m., GMT+3.
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2014/05/06
Stock Markets Are Opening Trading Week Without Significant Changes
The new trading week started with a moderate growth of the main stock markets. As for the U.S, the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in April increased from 53,1, to 55,2, when, at the time, analysts predicted growth of only 54,1.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index raised 0,11% to the level of 16530,55 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,19% and reached a level of 1884,66 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went into plus by 0,34% and reached a level of 4138,06 points.
The situation in Europe was not so optimistic, mainly influenced again by the conflict in Ukraine, which brings huge uncertainty to the markets. The French index, CAC 40, increased by 0,10%, the German DAX went to a minus by 0,30%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,30% and was closed on a level of 336,89 points.
The investor confidence index of Sentix of the Eurozone for May, made 12,8 points against average expectations of 14,2 points. Besides that, the price index of producers of the Eurozone in March decreased by 0,20%, which coincided with average forecasts.
The price of commodities remain stable without showing any significant movements. Brent and WTI are up by around 0,11% and are traded on prices of $107,23 and $98,84 per barrel. Gold adds 0,20%, traded on a level of $1311,94 per troy ounce. Silver is up 0,40%, bargaining next to the level of $19,65 per troy ounce.
The Asian markets were less active due to the celebration of a national holiday.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average index raised 0,11% to the level of 16530,55 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,19% and reached a level of 1884,66 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went into plus by 0,34% and reached a level of 4138,06 points.
The situation in Europe was not so optimistic, mainly influenced again by the conflict in Ukraine, which brings huge uncertainty to the markets. The French index, CAC 40, increased by 0,10%, the German DAX went to a minus by 0,30%. The regional STXE 600 indicator, in turn, decreased by 0,30% and was closed on a level of 336,89 points.
The investor confidence index of Sentix of the Eurozone for May, made 12,8 points against average expectations of 14,2 points. Besides that, the price index of producers of the Eurozone in March decreased by 0,20%, which coincided with average forecasts.
The price of commodities remain stable without showing any significant movements. Brent and WTI are up by around 0,11% and are traded on prices of $107,23 and $98,84 per barrel. Gold adds 0,20%, traded on a level of $1311,94 per troy ounce. Silver is up 0,40%, bargaining next to the level of $19,65 per troy ounce.
The Asian markets were less active due to the celebration of a national holiday.
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2014/05/05
Bears Feel More Confident In The Market
Stock markets closed the last trading week mainly in negative territory. European stock markets are still influenced with the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, and even positive statistics did not help indices to move up.
PMI indices of the members of the Eurozone showed positive dynamics, the index in the Eurozone, as a whole, increased from 53,3 points up to 53,4 points. In Switzerland, the index grew from the level of 54,4 points in March, to 55,8 points in April, but in Germany decreased from 54,2 points to 54,1 points. The unemployment rate appeared to be at the level of 11,8%, against the expected 11,9%.
As a result, the British FTSE 100 index increased by 0,20%, France's CAC 40 lost 0,70% and Germany's DAX went down by 0,50%. The regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, decreased by 0,20% and closed the trading week on a level of 337,76 points.
Statistics in the U.S. also appeared to be rather encouraging, but did not give indices power for growth. According to published data, employment in the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased in April by 288 thousand, while analysts had expected the number to be on a level of only 210 thousand. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 6,7% in March, to 6.3% in April, which was better than market expectations of 6.6%.
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,28% and was closed on a level of 16512,89 points, the S&P 500 index was down 0,14%, reaching a level of 1881,14 points, and the index of the high-tech companies, Nasdaq, lost 0.09% and finished the trading session on a level of 4123,90 points.
This morning, the index of business activity in the industry from HSBC in China was released, which, in April, made 48,1 points and appeared to be lower than the predicted result of 48,4 points.
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PMI indices of the members of the Eurozone showed positive dynamics, the index in the Eurozone, as a whole, increased from 53,3 points up to 53,4 points. In Switzerland, the index grew from the level of 54,4 points in March, to 55,8 points in April, but in Germany decreased from 54,2 points to 54,1 points. The unemployment rate appeared to be at the level of 11,8%, against the expected 11,9%.
As a result, the British FTSE 100 index increased by 0,20%, France's CAC 40 lost 0,70% and Germany's DAX went down by 0,50%. The regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, decreased by 0,20% and closed the trading week on a level of 337,76 points.
Statistics in the U.S. also appeared to be rather encouraging, but did not give indices power for growth. According to published data, employment in the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased in April by 288 thousand, while analysts had expected the number to be on a level of only 210 thousand. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined from 6,7% in March, to 6.3% in April, which was better than market expectations of 6.6%.
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 0,28% and was closed on a level of 16512,89 points, the S&P 500 index was down 0,14%, reaching a level of 1881,14 points, and the index of the high-tech companies, Nasdaq, lost 0.09% and finished the trading session on a level of 4123,90 points.
This morning, the index of business activity in the industry from HSBC in China was released, which, in April, made 48,1 points and appeared to be lower than the predicted result of 48,4 points.
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Bears Feel More Confident In The Market
2014/04/29
The Markets Look Forward To Decisions From The FED
Yesterday, important macroeconomic statistical reports were not published in the U.S., which resulted in no significant influence to the development throughout the trading session, and, as a result, indices closed the trading session with a moderate growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0,53% to the level of 16448,74 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, grew 0,32% to the level of 1869,43 points, and the Nasdaq Composite went to a minus by just 0,03%, and reached the level of 4074,4 points.
Oil prices are moving in a positive direction, Brent adds 0,61% and is traded on a level of $108,77 per barrel, while WTI is up 0,54% and is bargaining at a price of $101,39 per barrel. Prices of precious metals are losing in value, gold and silver are down by 0,78% and 1,11% accordingly, traded on prices of $1288.89 per troy ounce for gold, and $19,37 for silver.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0,53% to the level of 16448,74 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, grew 0,32% to the level of 1869,43 points, and the Nasdaq Composite went to a minus by just 0,03%, and reached the level of 4074,4 points.
Oil prices are moving in a positive direction, Brent adds 0,61% and is traded on a level of $108,77 per barrel, while WTI is up 0,54% and is bargaining at a price of $101,39 per barrel. Prices of precious metals are losing in value, gold and silver are down by 0,78% and 1,11% accordingly, traded on prices of $1288.89 per troy ounce for gold, and $19,37 for silver.
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2014/04/28
Investors Are Waiting For FED Meeting This Week
The beginning of the week has again been influenced by the situation in Ukraine, where intensity continues to strengthen. During Friday’s telephone conference leaders of France, the USA, Germany and Italy, discussed the possibility of an introduction of new sanctions against Russia, thus heads of all four countries believe that the Russian Federation, according to the accepted arrangements, have to take action towards the de-escalation of the conflict, and refuse provocative statements. At the same time, the U.S. are easy going when it comes to the introduction of new sanctions, but European countries are not really willing to proceed with the same attitude, as they are going to become safer due to these actions, and are affected by the situation much more than the U.S.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index finished the trading session with a loss of 0,75% and was closed on a level of 16378,05 points, the index of the wide market, S&P 500, went to a minus by 0,76% and reached the level of 1864,33 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, fell by 1,68% to the level of 4078,79 points.
European indices also finished the trading week rather differently, but mainly in negative territory. The British FTSE 100 lost 0,26%, the French index, CAC 40, added 0,80%, and the German DAX went to a minus by 1,54%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased, in turn, by 0,80% and was closed on a level of 333,5 points. This morning, indices opened the trading week at almost the same levels they closed with on Friday. The FTSE 100 adds 0,26%, the DAX index adds 0,27% so far, and the CAC 40 grows by 0,19%.
Today, the economic calendar is rather empty, and there aren't any important macroeconomic reports expected, but special attention should be paid to the results of the meeting of the FED, results which we will be able to see on Wednesday the 30th of April, 2014. On Thursday, the majority of the stock markets will be closed in relation to the celebration of Labour Day.
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On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index finished the trading session with a loss of 0,75% and was closed on a level of 16378,05 points, the index of the wide market, S&P 500, went to a minus by 0,76% and reached the level of 1864,33 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, fell by 1,68% to the level of 4078,79 points.
European indices also finished the trading week rather differently, but mainly in negative territory. The British FTSE 100 lost 0,26%, the French index, CAC 40, added 0,80%, and the German DAX went to a minus by 1,54%. The regional STXE 600 indicator decreased, in turn, by 0,80% and was closed on a level of 333,5 points. This morning, indices opened the trading week at almost the same levels they closed with on Friday. The FTSE 100 adds 0,26%, the DAX index adds 0,27% so far, and the CAC 40 grows by 0,19%.
Today, the economic calendar is rather empty, and there aren't any important macroeconomic reports expected, but special attention should be paid to the results of the meeting of the FED, results which we will be able to see on Wednesday the 30th of April, 2014. On Thursday, the majority of the stock markets will be closed in relation to the celebration of Labour Day.
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2014/04/24
Forecast April 24
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its decision on the interest rate at midnight. Experts think that it will grow from 2.75% to 3%.
Germany will publish a whole block of stats at 11 a.m.: business expectations, business climate by IFO and current assessment.
Retail sales statistics will be published in Britain at 11:30 a.m.
A number of orders for durables will be announced at 3:30 p.m.
Germany will publish a whole block of stats at 11 a.m.: business expectations, business climate by IFO and current assessment.
Retail sales statistics will be published in Britain at 11:30 a.m.
A number of orders for durables will be announced at 3:30 p.m.
2014/04/23
Results From The Largest American Companies Are Pushing Indices Up
Reports from the largest American companies who demonstrated good quarterly results, are pushing indices up. Due to this, optimism continues in the American stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index raised 0,4% to the level of 16514,37 points, the index of the wide market, Standard & Poor's 500, increased by 0,41% to the level of 1879,55 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite, went to a plus on 0,97% and reached the level of 4161,46 points.
European stock markets also had a rather positive trading session. The British index, FTSE 100, grew by 0,85%, the French CAC 40 added 1,18%, and the German DAX went to a plus on 2,02%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by 1,4% and was closed on the level of 337,03 points. This morning, indices are bargaining at the previous levels reached, and positive attitudes were also brought on by published macroeconomic data.
The index of business activity in the services sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,1 points in April, whilst analysts were only expecting an increase to the level of 52,4 points. The previous value was on the level of 52,2 points. The index of business activity in the industry sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,3 points in April, moving up from the level of 53,0 points, recorded last month. Analysts were expecting the level of 53,0 points only.
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European stock markets also had a rather positive trading session. The British index, FTSE 100, grew by 0,85%, the French CAC 40 added 1,18%, and the German DAX went to a plus on 2,02%. The regional STXE 600 indicator increased, in turn, by 1,4% and was closed on the level of 337,03 points. This morning, indices are bargaining at the previous levels reached, and positive attitudes were also brought on by published macroeconomic data.
The index of business activity in the services sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,1 points in April, whilst analysts were only expecting an increase to the level of 52,4 points. The previous value was on the level of 52,2 points. The index of business activity in the industry sector of the Eurozone, according to the preliminary data, made 53,3 points in April, moving up from the level of 53,0 points, recorded last month. Analysts were expecting the level of 53,0 points only.
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Forecast for April 23
The investors, who trade AUDUSD, should pay attention to the CPI publication at 4:30 a.m. (GMT+3). ‘Aussie’ will be volatile.
Right after that, traders will switch their attention to the publication of Manufacturing PMI by HSBC. Current index value is located at 48.0 points. When the PMI is below 50.0, it indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining, which leads to a decrease of demand for raw assets. If index appears to be worse than a forecast, it can weaken AUD’s positions.
USA, Germany and France will publish their Manufacturing PMIs during the day. Eurozone will do the same.
Traders interested in pound should pay attention to the publication of minutes from the last Bank of England’s meeting. Info should be published at 11:30 a.m. CBI Industrial Trends Orders will be published at 1 p.m.
New Housing Sales will be announced in the USA by the end of the day.
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Right after that, traders will switch their attention to the publication of Manufacturing PMI by HSBC. Current index value is located at 48.0 points. When the PMI is below 50.0, it indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining, which leads to a decrease of demand for raw assets. If index appears to be worse than a forecast, it can weaken AUD’s positions.
USA, Germany and France will publish their Manufacturing PMIs during the day. Eurozone will do the same.
Traders interested in pound should pay attention to the publication of minutes from the last Bank of England’s meeting. Info should be published at 11:30 a.m. CBI Industrial Trends Orders will be published at 1 p.m.
New Housing Sales will be announced in the USA by the end of the day.
***
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