Meeting of European Central Bank and Draghi’s Conference Becomes a Key Events of the Day

Today one of the key places in an economic calendar are occupied by meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and the conference of Mario Draghi after it. It very might happen that this time the head of the Central Bank will prepare the markets for possible decrease of a rate in December.

The point is that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone at the moment is on 4-year minimum levels, and continues to fall. If falling is going to continue, it will start threatening the region with a deflation on a Japanese manner. The European Central Bank can't simply stay idle in such situation and if the regulator will take a decision for further mitigation, it is going to have a significant impact on euro. At the moment a support level is on a price of 1,3480, it’s breakdown can direct pair to the area of 1,34. The more we are going to receive positive data from the USA, the more possible it is going to be that EUR/USD will move towards level of 1,32 within next few weeks.

American stock markets showed yesterday inconsistent dynamics. Dow Jones managed to reach a new historical maximum having increased for 0,8%% and getting to the level of 15746,88 points, supported by  growth of stock quotations of oil and gas monsters as Exxon Mobil (+1,3%%) and Chevron (+2,7%%), and also the computer giant IBM (+1,3%%). At the same time Nasdaq decreased by 0,20%% and finished trading session on a level of 3931,95 points, S&P 500 increased for 0,43%% reaching level of 1770,49 points.

The Leading Index of the USA published yesterday showed vigorous lifting for 0,7%%, having exceeded market expectations and showed that there are no reasons for troubles concerning health of the American economy, at least, until the end of this year. In this context the index of volatility of the American stocks, VIX, fell yesterday to 2-month minimum, having reflected very complacent spirit of investors.

Today investors will be very cautious before a release of important data from the USA and the decision of European Central Bank and Bank of England. As a whole, investors expect weak data on gross domestic product and a labor market that will promote further continuation of the program of quantitative easing in the USA up to spring of the next year.

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